malba2366

A leaf shortage would explain a slowdown in shipments, but from what I am reading there are almost no shipments of Cohibas coming in. Yes the prices of Cuban cigars are the same everywhere, but when the US market opens to Cuban Cigars I think there will be a surge in demand due to the novelty and the large new market; the prices will jump significantly in the short term until the demand levels off, and production increases to satisfy the new market.

When do you think we'll see Cohiba stocks return to normal. Seems to me the best assumption as to the reason of the shortage is that they are hoarding Cohibas to export to the US once the Embargo is lifted in full.

This goes to show that you can't bet against the dollar for long and win! US interest rates are still hovering at all time lows, and the dollar is still so strong. The US can get away with printing tons of money because there is an unending demand for dollars as the US dollar is needed to purchase oil from OPEC nations. This was an ingenious deal Richard Nixon negotiated with the Saudis whereby the US protected Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis only accepted US dollars for their oil.

I don't think the brand issue is that simple. High courts have already ruled that General Tobacco owns the Cohiba trademark in the USA. There will have to be some financial agreements between the two companies; I doubt habanos would want to be without their Flagship brand as well as others (Bolivar, Ramon Allones, punch, HDM, partagas).

It's tough to say if this is a good place to make money. Personally for me the risk is a little to high especially considering that one nation basically has the ability to manipulate oil prices at will. Will you lose your shirt with XOM, RDS, BP, HAL etc., very unlikely but you definitely could while investing in shale oil/deep sea drilling companies especially in the short term. It is pretty clear that OPEC and the Saudis are determined to keep prices at levels below where Shale and deep sea drilling are profitable. They will be able to do so until demand picks up significantly which won't happen in the short term.

Only time will tell is Russia will bounce back, it all depends on how long the Saudis and their allies in OPEC can hold down prices. There is absolutely an oil war going on behind the scenes here. Yes the Saudis would like lower prices to flush out higher priced suppliers but they also want to hurt Russia and Iran for their support of the Asad regime in Syria. The Saudis also want to maintain their position as the power broker in the Middle East, and an Iran powered by oil wealth could challenge that.

This was the first think Obama did that I support, however I fear that the upcoming presidential election and the politics of South Florida will prevent any further liberalization of policies towards Cuba. To people outside the USA it must be baffling how a small part of the country can have such a big influence on presidential election. Ill try to sum it up for those who don't. The president is not directly elected in the US, voters vote for votes in the electoral college which actually selects the president. Each state gets a certain number of electoral college votes depending on its population. All the electoral college votes in a given state go to the candidate who wins that state. Florida is the third most populous state in the US, and the only one of the top 4 that is ever in play (California and New York always vote democrat, and Texas always republican). Therefore Florida is VERY important in presidential election, and the large Cuban population of South Florida is seen as a group that doesn't always vote along party lines thus they have huge influence on presidential politics. The above simple explanation was not meant to patronize anyone, but it was meant to attempt to explain the political situation and pitfalls to possible open relations with Cuba to those who may not be familiar with the election system in the US.

So americans can basically go for any reason now...All one would have to say is that they are going for a public performance, and go to one show or concert while they are there.

Their impact is because they are the lowest cost producer in the world with the largest proven reserves, and they can decrease and increase output whenever they want. Their oil fields are paid for, they are not dependent on high oil prices to run their country, the govt owns their oil fields and 100% of the production apparatus, and their location allows for easy exportation of the oil. The Saudis are currently benefiting from low cost oil by bleeding Russia and Iran, and discouraging further investments in shale oil and deep sea drilling. The US and Russia both produce almost as much as or slightly more (depending on source) than Saudi Arabia, but their production costs are much higher. The high investment costs of shale oil, and Russia's extreme dependence on petrodollars prevent ramping of production to control prices. Their attempts have backfired a little because it does appear as if they lost control a bit of oil prices...I doubt they wanted them to slide so far down, but they can live with prices of $40 according to their statements. The activities of commodity traders also contribute to the wild swings in oil prices both at the low and high end. It also looks like most of the other OPEC members don't want to go along with a production cut because they need the $$$, and the Saudis don't want to cut alone so for now we have cheap oil!

Russia is hurting and will hurt more! Russia basically has no economy besides oil exporting, and they have become addicted to $100/bl oil. All the oil producing nations, except industrialized ones and Saudi/Kuwait/UAE are going to be in a world of hurt if oil prices stay down...they have all spent like crazy and need $100/bl oil. I strongly believe oil will come up and settle in the $70-80/bl range because this is where the Saudis want it. At these prices all the high cost producers (shale, arctic drilling, tar sands etc) will be shaken out over the next few years. I would not be wanting to invest any of my money in speculative oil plays, or any companies that are heavily involved in high cost oil extraction.

I would love for this to mean open travel/trade with Cuba, but I fear that the the politics of South Florida will win over once again with a presidential election coming up. The situation in the US right now is that Florida with the second largest block of electoral college votes basically decides presidential elections, and South Florida basically decides the way the state goes. It is so sad that the criminals that Castro kicked out and their relatives have such a big effect on US politics and relations with Cuba.

I think Oil prices will stay between $70 and 80 because this is where the Saudis want it. They are the only ones in the world that have the capacity to turn on and off capacity (their oil is easily accessible, their oil fields are paid for and they haven't been foolish enough to allow themselves to become dependent on $100/bl oil). The Saudis make money at these prices, and it discourages investment in deep ocean drilling and shale oil/tar sands projects in North America. Besides the obvious, cheap oil has benefits in that it limits oil profits from rogue states such as Iran (and Russia); and also what ISIS can make off their black market oil.

Its going to be a mess with lawsuits over the brand names if the embargo ever gets lifted.

All banks are forbidden from conducting dollar clearing transactions with Cuba. This severely limits cuba's ability to conduct international trade. This will continue to get worse as New York banking regulators are watching this very closely. You may have read that BNP recently was fined $9billion and almost lost its NY banking license for conducting such transactions with Iran, Cuba and Sudan; and Standard Chartered was the subject of large fines as wel.

A nice compromise would be to make discussion forums public but to make the "sales" areas private. There could be a method whereby the moderators could select contributing members for access to private areas by their post activity and the number of likes they get.