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2020 - 2030

 

Can you pick the next cigar trend? If you have a hunch, share it. 

This thread isn't meant for the "Chicken Little" brigade to roll out the wet blankets :D    At the same time we positive and negative trends are welcome. 

Based on demand, supply, lifestyle changes, regions, legislation.......have a crack at picking what we will be seeing in the next decade that we haven't really seen as yet ;)

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prodigy   

US and Cuba relations improve. US market opens officially. Demand far exceeds supply and we all have to fight harder and pay more :(

Plus side is quality goes up and up between now and then. :)

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prodigy   
No way in hell I see the US lifting the embargo. Cuba's political climate is not changing. Maybe 50-150 years from now. But not soon. If they did, demand would far exceed the limitations of cigar output in Cuba. Prices would definitely skyrocket
I mean, we just made progress with North Korea, so I say anything is possible haha

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Monterey   
Just now, prodigy said:

I mean, we just made progress with North Korea, so I say anything is possible haha

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
 

North Koreans don't live in the United States.  The embargo is about appeasing cuban americans who vote in the swing state of Florida.

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TBird55   

I am afraid,  that in the not too distant future, cabs of 50 will be a thing of the past. 

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I have no idea about cigar itself but I would say 4-5 limited edition/year (market already mature for it) and regular production boxes with 20 units (less cigars more boxes for everyone).

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Wailbait   
1 minute ago, scap99 said:

I'm hoping the jaw breaker movement fizzles and we start seeing more Lonsdale and Lancero come on line.

Pretty much exactly what I was going to write.  Admittedly, that’s not a prediction - it’s more of a wish.  

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dimi68   

In countries with ever increasing duties will push cigars back to the realm of the gentry and elitist's. The Little man's days are numbered due to stagnant wages & future automation.

America is currently an anomaly due to non taxable imports,this will change at some point.

By 2025 the big push to ban all tobacco products in some western countries will begin in earnest!

Future growth of cigar sales will come from Middle-asia.

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TBird55   
4 minutes ago, SenorPerfecto said:

 

TLDR: stock up on regular production— as much as you can

Ordered another Aristocrat this week for this very reason.

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GasGuy82   

5, 10 and 20 ct boxes become the norm with 25 count boxes the exception and 50 cabs viewed the same way we now view cajons (100 ct).

the bigger question will be if tobacco is banned in Western world or whether it’s a de facto ban i.e. denial of health insurance for tobacco use.

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I think we will see much of the same trend for at least another 5 years. Elimination of some much loved vitolas from different marcas to make way for the next big ring gauge cigars or extra shiny double banded cigars. Only reason I say this is because it seems to be working so why would it change?

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gweilgi   

A lifting of the embargo.  This will lead to more upward pressure on prices and availability, as the US market will be opened up and Cuban cigars will be heavily marketed to American consumers.  This may well also lead to a reduction in quality as the Cubans will be pushed to increase production.  I also see a possibility that such demand may lead to sales of Cuban leaf to NC cigar makers for them to create multi country blends.  

Increasing restrictions and prices across the world.  I fully expect that by 2030, at least one country will ban tobacco outright.  

Fashion always changes.  Currently, producers are moving away from small ring gauges, so I expect them to move right back to producing and promoting lanceros, panatelas and similar vitolas in a decade or two.  My above points about restrictions and demand will also play into this, as small RG and shorter cigars will allow for larger production numbers and shorter smoking times.  

China will be the biggest cigar market in the world as the increasing wealth of its population will mature and will lead to bigger spending on the good things in life in all areas.  

Smuggling and counterfeiting will keep increasing, driven by extortionate taxation.  This should actually be good news for established retailers because reliable and trusted sources will become of increasing importance.  

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JGD   

I expect HSA to continue with its current trend of cutting various regular production, essentially limiting each marca to a handful of vitolas; then increase one off high end productions (more LEs, GRs, other special releases). All of the high end productions will continue to grow in price. Hopefully I’m wrong...

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cfc1016   

The brigades of new smokers get bored and go back to their other nouveau riche hobbies. 

Thick ring gauges stop selling like hot cakes. 

Ninfas, entreactos, laguitos, lonsdales, perlas - these become the new rage, as climate change rapidly accelerates and noone wants to be outside long enough for a robusto extra anymore. 

Hey... I can dream...

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59 minutes ago, SenorPerfecto said:

Regular production quality will decline precipitously with the opening of the US market and Cuba growing seedlings on every square inch of soil to try to meet demands in the newly legal US market and the insatiable China and India markets.

 

Overall the reputation of the Cuban cigar will suffer, while growers in other regions continue to hone their craft.

 

The finest cigars in the world will no longer be de-facto Cuban, just as the finest wine in the world is no longer de-facto French.

 

TLDR: stock up on regular production— as much as you can store! And keep an open mind to tobacco from other places...

 

 

Agree with all of this.  

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TNT009   
1 hour ago, scap99 said:

I'm hoping the jaw breaker movement fizzles and we start seeing more Lonsdale and Lancero come on line.

If that is going to happen, Im stocking up on fatty's now!

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Lotusguy   

Boxes of 10 and 20 and petacas only. 50 cabs will be discontinued for regular production but still available for a few RE releases.

Smoking will be illegal in many countries but the black market will thrive. Plain packaging in most other countries.

Only 5 Marcas will survive in regular production: Cohiba, RyJ, Montecristo, Upmann, and either Partagas or Hoyo. The rest will be RE like La Escepcion.

Prices will be through the roof like LV/Louboutin/Chanel category luxury goods.

Those are my dire predictions.

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I think we'll continue to see more and more 52 - 54 ring gauge cigars in different marcas and sizes available. More and more packaging will go to 10ct and 20ct boxes, 25 ct boxes will be the new 50 cab, and actual 50 cabs will be eliminated.

In addition, the double corona size will go the way of the Dodo unfortunately.

Prices will continue to go up, and if US/Cuba relations normalize and the embargo is lifted, quality will dip drastically to meet the new demand, and prices will skyrocket.

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3-D Printed Cigars.  The upside is that you can print any vitola, short-and-fat or long-and-skinny, that you like.  The downside is that they will all taste like plastic. :P 

AI Cigars.  They'll pester and heckle you to get back to work.  Unless you pay extra for the Special Edition AI Cigar, which will complement you on your good looks and fine taste. :cigar: 

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