TheGipper

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  1. CBS broadcast Stateside showed the clock definitely stopped at 1:15 until the ball was spotted, just at @GotYaGoat described.
  2. Presumably, by definition discontinued vitolas are not regular production. Interestingly, in my tracking I have found that among the five broad categories I track (Regular Production, Discontinued, REs, ELs, Special Production), regular production produces higher returns than the other 4 categories. It's a surprising result (to me) that continues to persist so far through 7+ months of open market sales data. I am pretty sure I have the answer, but it wouldn't be sporting for me to participate with my "guesses". I will say some of you are nearly on the right track. Others...are not.
  3. Oh nonsense, it's fine. It just takes a longer to kill the eggs at 1C-5C. 10-14 days at just above freezing is the same as 4-12 hours in a -10C to -15C freezer. Look it up in the Imai and Harada paper. I think there's a lot of misunderstanding of the acclimated larva category in the Imai and Harada paper. This category was hatched egg larvae that were exposed to 15C for multiple months before they were subjected to the test conditions. Imai and Harada were trying to simulate tobacco stored for months in a curing barn or warehouse during typical (mild) winter conditions in tobacco growing regions. You are unlikely to have any larvae in your boxes at all, and even if somehow you do, the refrigerator temperature is well below the acclimation temperature. You will kill the larvae in the refrigerator in about the same time as the eggs.
  4. It's a good topic, and I'm glad you brought this up, because I have been wondering about this myself. I also have gotten quite a few 2019 boxes with similar characteristics. But by no means all boxes in my case. Some of these are reminding me of boxes I got between 1997-2005. Completely unsmokeable when young. Haven't seen much of this in the last 15 years. However, almost all of those unsmokeables came around after 3-5 years. Many turned into fantastic boxes down the road. Ask anyone who got the the 2000 Montecristo Robustos EL when released, the were Exhibit 1A of this. Some of the worst cigars you'd ever had from Cuba when young. 7-10 years later, they were legendary in how good they were.
  5. Well, what happened there? Good catch. Corrected table below. Marcas Annualized Lot Count Bolivar 13.01% 38 Cohiba 15.31% 65 Cohiba (Regular Production, ex Behike) 14.02% 43 Cohiba (Behike Only) 26.94% 4 Diplomaticos 15.02% 14 El Rey del Mundo 7.14% 13 H. Upmann 13.07% 58 Hoyo de Monterrey 13.33% 30 La Gloria Cubana 25.34% 9 Montecristo 11.59% 46 Partagas 15.45% 59 Por Larranaga 14.36% 35 Punch 9.95% 23 Quai d'Orsay 19.42% 6 Rafael Gonzalez 7.07% 4 Ramon Allones 12.91% 36 Romeo y Julieta 10.29% 23 Saint Luis Rey 12.07% 15 San Cristobal de la Habana 8.88% 8 Sancho Panza 6.36% 8 Trinidad 12.14% 13 Vegas Robaina 7.77% 9
  6. Overall Returns Annualized Lot Count All Auctions Equal-Weight 12.25% 545 All Auctions Dollar-Weight [see Note 1] 12.79% 545 Note 1: Dollar weighted returns are a better measure of portfolio performance by dollar invested. Equal weight represent return per lot (box), and are suggestive of a lower bound for returns on low-priced boxes. Category Returns (Equal Weight) Annualized Lot Count Regular Production 14.11% 269 Special Production (Non-EL) 10.42% 43 Discontinued 12.33% 68 Regional Editions [see Note 2] 11.89% 96 Edicion Limitadas 12.64% 69 Note 2: Regional Edition returns are lower due to cost-to-acquire assumptions included in our baseline pricing database. Returns will be higher for boxes acquired at in-country typical prices. Marcas Annualized Lot Count Bolivar 13.01% 38 Cohiba 15.31% 65 Cohiba (Regular Production, ex Behike) 14.02% 43 Cohiba (Behike Only) 26.94% 4 Diplomaticos 15.02% 14 El Rey del Mundo 7.14% 13 H. Upmann 13.07% 58 Hoyo de Monterrey 13.33% 30 La Gloria Cubana 25.34% 9 Montecristo 11.59% 46 Por Larranaga 14.36% 35 Punch 9.95% 23 Quai d'Orsay 19.42% 6 Rafael Gonzalez 7.07% 4 Ramon Allones 12.91% 36 Romeo y Julieta 10.29% 23 Saint Luis Rey 12.07% 15 San Cristobal de la Habana 8.88% 8 Sancho Panza 6.36% 8 Trinidad 12.14% 13 Vegas Robaina 7.77% 9 Production Year Annualized Lot Count Pre-2000 6.71% 13 2000 6.14% 5 2001 8.01% 10 2002 8.99% 10 2003 8.14% 12 2004 10.55% 8 2005 10.89% 14 2006 10.20% 21 2007 8.42% 29 2008 9.33% 38 2009 9.52% 22 2010 13.06% 26 2011 12.95% 26 2012 12.72% 36 2013 12.49% 30 2014 16.17% 54 2015 15.64% 62 2016 16.89% 79 2017 15.10% 29 Original Purchase Price (estimated) Annualized Lot Count $100 and under 16.58% 37 $100 to $250 12.78% 338 $250 to $500 12.97% 133 $500 to $1000 10.32% 28 $1000 and higher 22.19% 9 Box Quantity Annualized Lot Count 5 9.67% 4 10 13.85% 175 15 13.88% 9 20 9.66% 6 25 12.53% 297 50 16.34% 29
  7. A little late, but finally got time to sum things up for second quarter. Lots included for this report are all auctions with last bid between July 1, 2020 through September 30, 2020. Lots with no bids are excluded. Same caveats apply from Q2 report, which you can read here: https://www.friendsofhabanos.com/forum/topic/145575-bond-roberts-q2-2020-market-report/ Report content to follow.
  8. Are people actually bringing significant quantities of cigars *into* Cuba? What for?
  9. The famous Imai and Harada paper has something to say about this. They found that all eggs became nonviable after 6 weeks when temperatures were kept below 18C. On the other hand, they found >80% hatched within 4 weeks at 20C. The reasonable inference here is that infestations that occur in our humidors are from eggs that are "outlier eggs" that don't hatch in the normally short time frame (4 weeks) after they are laid by the adult.
  10. I can tell y'all like to smoke your CoRo young. When #1 is indeed best. But in my experience, the box that has the best chance of becoming mind-blowingly good at 8+ years is more likely to be #2 or #3. Other experiences may vary, of course.
  11. Well okay... But the process already happened. It will be published in the federal register and go into effect tomorrow. It's all right there in the Miami Herald article linked above, including a link to the official PDF from the OFAC.
  12. So back to the way it was prior to...I can't remember the year, maybe 2010 or so? When they first started allowing that "personal use" importation. Some will say it's the end of the world, others of us will say we've lived through the previous ends of the world...
  13. Very nice. Almost exactly the notes I used to get with these (when I still had some). Like a walk in a garden with a cup of warm tea in hand. Still one of the more regrettable deletions, I think.
  14. I learn some of the weirdest things visiting this board... Found this: http://www.metropostcard.com/war7d-holiday2.html

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