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Of course, everything is possible but I'd still stand by the losers' chances being under 50%. Yes, England ought to beat Australia (although you have eked out two wins from what probably should've been losses) but to be fair, I figured they'd have a much greater chance against Pakistan and we saw what happened there. I definitely don't consider NZ a game England will have in the bag. At best India and NZ are coin flips, probably less than that. WI has the same schedule (just swap Australia for Pakistan) but that rain point instead of a win does make it difficult. Maybe I'm just an optimist that anything can happen. It looks like a moot point after WI's lackluster inning anyway. Good for England.

Alright, looks like we'll have a game tomorrow finally. It will be my birthday and I just moved to a new city so I will have to celebrate on my own. Please weather Gods give me one good birthday present (being a thrilling game). All these rained out games are pissing me off to be honest. Unfortunately, whoever loses between WI and England will probably be out of the semis.

Thanks Ken, I appreciate the insight. And I agree with a lot of it. Perhaps the criticism against Australia is even more fitting today. The problem with all-rounders has been explicit and couple that with some odd choices for the batting line up. I can't see the reasoning behind putting Khawaja in the sixth spot. I've always loved the anticipation when Maxwell walks out the middle in T20 but it is clear that he isn't a great fit in ODIs and (especially) Tests. Obviously the value of Maxwell is tilted towards his batting (rather than the bowling) but with one century in 104 ODI attempts (compared to three centuries in 59 international T20s), I think his reputation might be exaggerated. To be honest, I'd throw Stoinis in that category too. I On the other hand, I'm not sure if I'm all that excited about the alternative. Yes, Starc and Cummins would make most teams but after that? Nathan Lyon? Jason Behrendorff? Andrew Tye? Mitch Marsh? Where did Stanlake go? At least he has some years to develop, most of the above names are in their thirties now.

Yeah, right now NZ, England, India, and Australia, are top four. WI my inclusion. Crazy considering that they've only played 30% of the group stage (and that it is only one group). Guessing that WI could compete, the wash against SA might end up hurting them though. General thoughts of top four at this stage: Aussie bowling over-rated If Southee makes it back he could be the tie-breaker between NZ and ENG India great but given too much respect If India wins the trophy, I shall send the second most poster in this thread a care package. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Not much to report from the last few days (other than India's win I guess). Rain, rain, rain. I find it interesting that the top four teams currently (after 2-4 games played each) are the ones I expect to finish on top. I do think WI could grab one of those spots, they've looked much better than I had feared. We'll see. I am setting my alarm early for the Aussie-Pakistan game tomorrow though (maybe I should check the weather forecast before I go to bed tonight). Go Australia!

Happy birthday! Smoke something good (doubt you had plans not to).

Oh I know. To be fair, I have respect for Ken's opinions in all topics (at least the ones he's been vocal about and not timed-out for on this board (I am a climate scientist after all)) so I'd be more than happy for him to show up here. OnT: I am really looking forward to ENG-BAN game tomorrow. A lot at stake! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Yes, definitely agree. I was very close to saying how impressed I've been with the umps prior to that game. I feel bad for the West Indies, that loss may come back to haunt them. Yes, I almost felt a bit of sympathy for Smith. ALMOST. Thanks for entertaining me with replying to this thread. Not a soul around me interested in cricket so this is my only outlet. Double games tomorrow!

Now this is looking like a game we've been waiting for. Despite WI giving 20+ extras and counting, they're looking good. If it wasn't for Smith (booo!?), the Aussies would be out of luck here. Coulter-Nile is playing his hearts out with the bat, very impressive. Cottrell's catch just now must be the best this year all formats, probably the best I've seen in a very long time. Chris Gayle is entertaining as always.

Good point. It does also affect how the group stage is played, one vs. two groups (e.g. the 2015 WC). I think I prefer this format. I'm not sure it would work to have a 12-team group, too many games. Let's see if England can get the record of highest chance in a World Cup!

Finally a good show. Hats off to Bangladesh, a stunning inning all and all. Highest ever ODI score for them and it looked composed. It will be a good chase, SA is in dire need of a first win (despite it only being their second game) @JohnS what do you think about the exclusion of ODI status associate teams? To be honest, I think it was a good decision. The more overs, the more apparent differences in quality is. I love seeing smaller nations get upsets in T20 but I'm just not sure if any team would have had a chance here.

So what are people's first impressions after three games (fourth ongoing)? Waking up 5 in the morning to watch a complete stomping with a 13-over chase (TWICE now!) has not been worth it to me. I hope things improve. England looked impressive though, especially bowling, and maybe WI can have some upsets. India stepping in to the tournament on Wednesday, will be interesting to see how they fare against SA and then the Aussies. Who wins it all? I'll go out on a limb and say NZ although I wouldn't mind seeing the home team take it.

Some random stuff came in today. The RGs are cheap and cheerful and will serve well as morning smokes with coffee. The San Juan has become a favorite of mine (despite ring gauge) and I'm trying to build up a bit of rotation on those. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Smoking and smoking. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Super Eight is a great summer beer. Fruity gose, prefer it over the sea quencher. Friek from Odell was just fantastic, raspberry and cherry sour aged in bourbon barrels. Much better than Planete Rouge from Deschutes. Then a four year vertical of Ozark BDCS. 2016 very chocolatey, 2017 also good. 2018 my least favorite of the four. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk