bradbrennan Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I live in a oil boom area. I've seen the ups and downs in our area from the 80's, 90's, and throughout the 2000's. For some reason many in this area don't think we'll see another major dip in oil prices. Although, many didn't think it would get as low as it already is. I know some on here are pretty deep in the trading end of oil, any thoughts, are we heading for another dust bowl? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErikB Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Can't predict the future, but have a feeling the end is not yet in sight.. This downward trend killed the biggest player in our industry, a small group of traders within that company kept on taking wrong positions..so many people without jobs now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fokker4me Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Much of this current situation is caused by the Saudi government pumping production to artificially lower the price floor to hurt Russia. After I read that I thought this is way more complicated then it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maplepie Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Much of this current situation is caused by the Saudi government pumping production to artificially lower the price floor to hurt Russia Not hurting anyone as NATO is drunk on Russian oil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradbrennan Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 I may have been a little young during some of the time line in this article, but for the most part I can remember seeing the fallout from most of the downward trends. http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fosgate Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I just wish environmentalists would get the hell out of the way of exploration and allow more refineries to be built. Won't happen until people figure out their their gas, oil, plastics and other goods are not evil and their homes are not heated by pixie farts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiminBC Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 A few years ago we were paying high prices on peak oil worries. A know allot of people who live off our oil industry so I hope things stay at least where they are now. It is win win for the Saudis to keep oil low for awhile. It limits oil money to their enemies, keeps the US interested in keeping them in power and allows us to over use. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maplepie Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I just wish environmentalists would get the hell out of the way of exploration and allow more refineries to be built. All i want is the construction and [more importantly] the maintenance of nuclear power plants. I also wish that they would create safer and more regulated methods of refining/extracting oil. There's always a middleground - why the hell can't we find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fosgate Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 All i want is the construction and [more importantly] the maintenance of nuclear power plants. I also wish that they would create safer and more regulated methods of refining/extracting oil. There's always a middleground - why the hell can't we find it. Personally I feel they no longer have much creativity in an industry that is not only protected but heavily regulated. Why should they become innovative, they can hardly fail. The big oil industry is very difficult for new players to compete. So why not shut down aging refineries and not build new ones to manipulate the price at the pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLB03TT Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 A few thoughts- Commodities trading is always a fundamentally risky business with extreme price swings. The late comers to the oil shale play are the first to feel the pain. Some can weather this downturn, but many cannot. It all depends on your recovery costs, which vary greatly from deposit to deposit. New supplies from Libya have come online recently, which is further depressing prices. North America is now producing more oil daily than the Saudis, while oil demand is down, further depressing prices. China's booming growth has moderated, not positive for sustaining high oil prices. Leverages long speculators are getting their heads handed to them, forcing position liquidation, a short term price depressant. My guess is that we're near a short term bottom with WTI not breaching $70/ barrel. The good news is that lower gasoline, diesel, natural gas and heating oil prices should and I believe will stimulate consumer spending, which is a powerful positive for economies, across the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RobinFadal Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Much of this current situation is caused by the Saudi government pumping production to artificially lower the price floor to hurt Russia. After I read that I thought this is way more complicated then it seems. Absolutely correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradbrennan Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Much of this current situation is caused by the Saudi government pumping production to artificially lower the price floor to hurt Russia. After I read that I thought this is way more complicated then it seems. I am thinking the Saudis are doing it to get all the small guys out of the picture, the frackers, the companies with small holdings and the exploration companies Absolutely correct! Appears Saudi Arabia is only producing 9.6 million barrels a day and the U.S. is at 9.06. Assuming those numbers are correct, how much would Saudi Arabia have to reduce production to have an upward impact on pricing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradbrennan Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Can't predict the future, but have a feeling the end is not yet in sight.. This downward trend killed the biggest player in our industry, a small group of traders within that company kept on taking wrong positions..so many people without jobs now.. Are you saying the prices are likely to continue to decline? An article just came out today with some pretty detailed reasons why oil could drop to $50 by mid 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainQuintero Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 In the UK there is an interesting situation that means the price of oil going down has no effect on the price at the pumps, it's awesome. But when barrel prices go up, the price at the pump somehow goes up! Per litre companies get around 3p to 6p profit About 40p on the litre is what the price of oil is The other 80p or so is tax £1.26 per litre, 3p to 6p of that is petrol companies profit, but the government complains that the price of petrol is too much and says the petrol companies are greedy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginseng Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Are you saying the prices are likely to continue to decline? An article just came out today with some pretty detailed reasons why oil could drop to $50 by mid 2015. I read that Saudi oil costs about $30 a barrel to lift. At $50, they'd probably be the only ones still making profit. Wilkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubleuhb Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I read that Saudi oil costs about $30 a barrel to lift. At $50, they'd probably be the only ones still making profit. Wilkey Not really sure about the price but essentially this is the case. Fracking is more expensive and if the bottom falls out on the barrel it will no longer be profitable to produce. Everyone should have seen this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradbrennan Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not really sure about the price but essentially this is the case. Fracking is more expensive and if the bottom falls out on the barrel it will no longer be profitable to produce. Everyone should have seen this coming. Nobody here wants to believe it. Like every day is the new bottom and surely it'll bounce back to $100 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misterblue Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 US is putting to much into oil infrastructure in Bakken shale to leave it sit (dust bowl) but price of oil drops imho. World economies push WTI into 60's in late 2014/early2015 to put pressure on US oil producers because fracking costs more than that per barrel and everyone knows it...but it goes back to 80s by q3 2015... Either way I see a tesla in my future... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulP Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/11/05/as-oil-plunges-further-why-it-might-be-game-over-for-the-fracking-boom/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hash Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Its Supply and Demand, punctuated by power politics.The recent decline in prices was widely viewed as a Saudi attempt to influence the Russian position on the conflict in Syria, and also hurting the economy of Iran because of its stance on that conflict. But i think the price is bound to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradbrennan Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 US is putting to much into oil infrastructure in Bakken shale to leave it sit (dust bowl) but price of oil drops imho. World economies push WTI into 60's in late 2014/early2015 to put pressure on US oil producers because fracking costs more than that per barrel and everyone knows it...but it goes back to 80s by q3 2015... Either way I see a tesla in my future... I probably shouldn't have used "dust bowl" lightly as the 30's was far worse than anything we could likely experience, but also created by man made greed to farm every inch of land we could till up. But I'm hearing more and more talk of $50 oil in a matter of a few months. With projections that this boom is five times larger than the 80's, we'll feel like a "dust bowl" when all these people leave in a short time that took five years to settle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkay Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 With gas prices around $2.80/gal around here it's like every consumer will have more cash in pocket to spend on the holidays driving the economy up thus increasing gas prices. Enjoy while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinThyme Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Its all a political game that we never see half of. I have news for you folks, there is more untapped oil in Russia than there is in all the middle eastern nations combined before they were tapped! I know of one well that when it went into production in 2001 it would pump under its own pressure for 50 years. It only produced for 2 days, then OPEC payed the Russians to shut it down and continued to pay them their projected revenues to not start it up again. I just checked with a colleague a few days ago that I worked with on that project for the Caspian pipeline consortium and the well is still capped and they are still being payed to keep it capped to keep the supply down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyO Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 From what I read supply is down. So the supply and demand theory is out the window. Last night I bought at $2.75, this morning its at $2.65. Diesel has not dropped like gasoline. Airlines wont drop ticket prices hey say they are "re-investing". We are going into winter when oil prices for heating usually rise. Grassy Knoll, Book Depository, Magic Bullet....it's all making sense to me now. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lotusguy Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Full-on market manipulation, if you ask me. I still keep some oil shares in my portfolio (alongside gold) as a hedge against falling stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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