El Presidente Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Bare with me as I have been asked a few hundred times since yesterday via PM and e-mail Overall, what a great start! I am still unsure as to what the current presidency can approve without congress. Travel amendments (which appear minor) and banking/funds movement changes (major) appear able to be done. I may be wrong and if I am please correct me. Almost everything else appears to be trade related and would need congressional support (including approval of cigar/alcohol imports). Again correct me if I am wrong. From what I can see you will not see any LCDH in the US anytime soon. Certainly such a situation is closer today than the day before yesterday. That is a good thing. With the assumption that it passes congress. I would be thrilled for my Cuban friends and their families. There will be an increase in opportunities. The Cuban Government will get richer. The "trickle down" effect is highly unlikely to happen. Hopefully there will be money for Cuban infrastructure to be repaired. A liveable wage is still a long way off. Prices for general goods in Cuba should go lower. That is a good thing. From the proposed changes, I can't see much of an impact on Cigars (quality or pricing) at this stage. There will be a 5% increase in March (Distributor) but that was known before this announcement. Given this is not a full blown legalising of Cuban cigar trade with the USA (at this time), global distributors have some breathing space but have been put on notice to prepare (2 years/5/10...who knows). The ball is as much in Rauls court. Cuba can scuttle this with one strategic piece of idiocy. They have done so in the past. I am not sure what the Cuban government has given up. They appear to be the short term winners. Premium Cuban tobacco exported to the NC manufacturers is unlikely to happen. NC manufacturers purchasing and growing tobacco in Cuba won't be permitted to happen. The Government has a monopoly here. Interesting times indeed! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 5% increase in March? Will that be trickling down to the consumer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forgop Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Our government has the propensity to always negotiate something that benefits the other country more so than ourselves. Just look how great we are at negotiating hostage exchanges, especially when you trade 5 terrorists for a military deserter (who still has not been charged by the way). Cuba is the winner in this 100x over. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 5% increase in March? Will that be trickling down to the consumer? I expect to some degree. It is up to the Distributor what they pass on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallclub Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Our government has the propensity to always negotiate something that benefits the other country more so than ourselves. Just look how great we are at negotiating hostage exchanges, especially when you trade 5 terrorists for a military deserter (who still has not been charged by the way). Cuba is the winner in this 100x over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guyman1966 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With the assumption that it passes congress. That is a huge assumption and a fairly large stretch. Even the usually supportive NY Times rand an Op-ed piece today that took the President to task. While personally I would love to see some sort of resolution that brought real quality of life improvements to the Cuban people, all this new activity did was give Obama a photo opportunity and make him feel relevant for another fifteen minutes. Congress, both Democrats and Republicans are outraged at what has happened. There is no real meat here and while younger Cubans in Miami are more interested in relaxing restrictions, it would be surprising if the political establishment were ready. Just like when Castro promised the Pope all political prisoners will be freed and there would be reforms… I expect not much more will happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftimatic Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Our government has the propensity to always negotiate something that benefits the other country more so than ourselves. Just look how great we are at negotiating hostage exchanges, especially when you trade 5 terrorists for a military deserter (who still has not been charged by the way). Cuba is the winner in this 100x over. Um.... huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 The topic people....stay on topic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rob Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Good considerations of the matter, Rob. I think the most pertinent point you made is that it's largely up to Raul to make good decisions moving forward. An ill conceived move on this political chess board (by the Cuban government) in relation to these matters will not bode well for moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw15825 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The topic people....stay on topic. You may be working more overtime on this one Rob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 You may be working more overtime on this one Rob! ...oh no I won't. yellow cards have been issued. Sin bin waiting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw15825 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I totally agree this is a great start. At least to open clear channels of communication which will be necessary for bigger change. If our current policy toward Cuba was going to change anything it would have by now. That said, don't hold your breath because there are a majority of individuals in our congress that will have to pass the" Ending of the embargo". Nonetheless we have to start somewhere. Some hopes for Cuban citizens and their families is a great day indeed !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guyman1966 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The topic people....stay on topic. Summary of what I wrote earlier: US Proposed Changes = Much To Do About Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malba2366 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This was the first think Obama did that I support, however I fear that the upcoming presidential election and the politics of South Florida will prevent any further liberalization of policies towards Cuba. To people outside the USA it must be baffling how a small part of the country can have such a big influence on presidential election. Ill try to sum it up for those who don't. The president is not directly elected in the US, voters vote for votes in the electoral college which actually selects the president. Each state gets a certain number of electoral college votes depending on its population. All the electoral college votes in a given state go to the candidate who wins that state. Florida is the third most populous state in the US, and the only one of the top 4 that is ever in play (California and New York always vote democrat, and Texas always republican). Therefore Florida is VERY important in presidential election, and the large Cuban population of South Florida is seen as a group that doesn't always vote along party lines thus they have huge influence on presidential politics. The above simple explanation was not meant to patronize anyone, but it was meant to attempt to explain the political situation and pitfalls to possible open relations with Cuba to those who may not be familiar with the election system in the US. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dpodiluk Posted December 19, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted December 19, 2014 This is my biggest fear. Cuba does need the money but I really don't want to see a McDonald's on every corner in Havana... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habanos2000 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This is my biggest fear. Cuba does need the money but I really don't want to see a McDonald's on every corner in Havana... You won't, unless that's what the Cuban consumer wants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canadianbeaver Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I mentioned this on the other thread, strictly on the topic of the Canadian government and cigars. If Cuban cigars were available in the US, CC smokers would simply get in their cars and do some cross border shopping like they do for stuff at the big malls in Buffalo and Detroit. The tax savings for smokers, tax loss for Canadians, as well as business for B&Ms would be huge. They already are feeling the pain from online shoppers like us. This, however is small issue in the bigger picture. The land as an annex to Florida, as well as oil and technology seems to be the bigger picture in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1LegLance Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The President has a very limited scope on what he can change in regards to Cuba due to the Helms-Barton Act that was passed years ago. True change will require congress and as others have said that is very unlikely right now, If this had happened 5yrs ago I would have said Cuba will screw it up, but Raul is not Fidel and I think it might move us toward change. The good thing for the Cuban people is that family members in the USA can send more money. USA folks traveling can spend more money and I think anything that puts USA-Cuba in a positive media light is great. Personally it doesn't change anything on a cigar buying basis as only legal Cuban travel is effected, web buying is still the same. I only hope that it will mean Customs will be passive in the package watching dept I am still planning to take my 16yr old son to Havana during Spring break, we were planning the trip already so nothing changed there. Just might try bringing back sticks whereas before we would not have. Still a 1 box limit when passing through Mexico unless you let them know you are just passing through same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fosgate Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I feel Cuba is being used as nothing more than a bargaining chip between political parties. On a positive note, just think if they could get manufacturing going there as competition with the increasing labor rates of China. If the U.S. could get in favor first for exclusive rights as part of a deal to lift the embargo.... Could you imagine the biggest asset in Cuba right now is not tobacco, sugar but it's cheap labor? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canadianbeaver Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Another amazing article! You will love this http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/will-lifting-the-embargo-on-cuban-cigars-ignite-the-us-tobacco-market/article22155121/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overproof Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I feel Cuba is being used as nothing more than a bargaining chip between political parties. On a positive note, just think if they could get manufacturing going there as competition with the increasing labor rates of China. If the U.S. could get in favor first for exclusive rights as part of a deal to lift the embargo.... Could you imagine the biggest asset in Cuba right now is not tobacco, sugar but it's cheap labor? I don't see cheap labor as positive thing here. Do you think another rivaling country entering the marketplace driving down conditions would make things worse than they already are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overproof Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Another amazing article! You will love this http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/will-lifting-the-embargo-on-cuban-cigars-ignite-the-us-tobacco-market/article22155121/ "Americans don’t typically enjoy sucking back the strong, rich tastes of Cohibas or Montecristos that are unique to the local soil. They prefer the mellower flavours from elsewhere. “Think bland – mayonnaise and white bread,” Giuseppe sounds like a bit off a tosser lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habana Mike Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 "Americans don’t typically enjoy sucking back the strong, rich tastes of Cohibas or Montecristos that are unique to the local soil. They prefer the mellower flavours from elsewhere. “Think bland – mayonnaise and white bread,” Giuseppe sounds like a bit off a tosser lol Quite interesting given the propensity for stronger and fatter cigars available in the US already.....unless you're a fan of Macanudo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1LegLance Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Read the entire article... Once again we have a media person who is an idiot...simple, just an idiot, quoting idiots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGipper Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What about all the trademark / brand name wrangling? Will Habanos slog it through the US court system (which will take years and likely result in more losses than wins)? Or will every existing marca get Mexico/Edmundo Dantes style pseudonyms for the US market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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