A look at box codes from 6 months of 24:24


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Interesting. Question for us newer folks -- what were LFTH and LITH? How did they work?

Im sure there is a old FaQ on this somewhere and you can forum search years back to find out exactly how it worked but...

LFTH , LFTW ... Live From The Humidor, Warehouse etc etc.

It was basically FOH staff would start a new forum post/thread and post pictures of boxes of cigars and at what quality level plus with how many available. And first to reply to the post with the proper corresponding quote of said post would get said boxes. (They would have to email in with personal details if the reply was in the the winning order).

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Re the coveted HQ/PSP boxes I see a definite trend developing.

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Interesting, Morgan. You inspired me to dig deeper.

Here's a table I just generated for HQ/PSP offerings (new tab called "Sales date vs. box date (HQ/PSP)" if you're interested), showing the 24:24 sales months as columns, and the production months (from the box codes) in the rows. I grabbed the most populated region of that table for this screenshot:

post-25409-0-33212800-1456375280_thumb.p

This table computes the total number of HQ/PSP boxes on sale during a given month. Dividing that total in half gives you the median (50th percentile) age of boxes sold during a given month. I picked this metric as a rough gauge of how recent Rob's stock is, over time. I then highlighted in yellow all the production months, going back in time, until the 50th %ile cumulative total was reached, and looked over at the corresponding row -- this tells us the median age of inventory sold during that month.

For example, you can see that July, 2015 saw 59 HQ/PSP boxes sold. Half of those is ~29. If you start with the most recent months and go back cumulatively, you hit 29 -- the half-way mark of total sales -- when you get to cell B42, which corresponds with Sept 2014 box dates, which was 10 months of age in July, 2015, when those boxes were sold. So half of what Rob put on sale for HQ/PSP stock was 10 months or younger, and half was older.

On rows 56-57, we can see that the median age for 24:24 HQ/PSP sales averages to 9 months, across the period of sales for which we have data. However, over the course of the year, that median age has been declining. Not sure if this is a trend or not, as this might be due to PCC aged sale offerings being seasonal, Rob chosing to lighten his personal stock, or any number of other factors.

Naively, in the absence of data, I would expect the 24:24 sales from any recent period to look something like this -- about half the stock is "9 months recent", give or take. But that's a guess on my part.

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Interesting. Question for us newer folks -- what were LFTH and LITH? How did they work?

Sure, LFTH (Live from the Humidor) was like a real-time sale of boxes. Pres would ship his picks from the warehouse to work and then place each box up for sale. Each post was selling THAT box, with a real picture of just THAT box. First come first serve.

LITH or LITW (Live in the Warehouse) was when Pres would be at the warehouse unpacking the master cases he and he would randomly find something he would post it up. While he was in the warehouse you could make request and he would do a little hunting for you if that item was around.

Either way, PSP was really the 1% grade at that time. Today high end HQ and PSP are quite available in most 24:24 so that's gotta be good news in terms of increased quality. Statically, the PSP may not be the 1% anymore.

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Sure, LFTH (Live from the Humidor) was like a real-time sale of boxes. Pres would ship his picks from the warehouse to work and then place each box up for sale. Each post was selling THAT box, with a real picture of just THAT box. First come first serve.

LITH or LITW (Live in the Warehouse) was when Pres would be at the warehouse unpacking the master cases he and he would randomly find something he would post it up. While he was in the warehouse you could make request and he would do a little hunting for you if that item was around.

Either way, PSP was really the 1% grade at that time. Today high end HQ and PSP are quite available in most 24:24 so that's gotta be good news in terms of increased quality. Statically, the PSP may not be the 1% anymore.

I would put PSP (from my numbers) at just under 7% in 2015.

Quailty has increased since I started doing this almost a decade ago. The way I work has also changed. Whereas I use to get one shipment a month and spend two -three days (a month) in the warehouse, I now receive two shipments most months and spend two days a week in the warehouse on average.

We have become a little smarter the way we order. If we see a hot seam come through we will re-order immediately. It doesn't always work but it certainly has increased the hit rate on quality stock.

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Do we have info for which box codes went with which vitolas? For example, for each time that Bolivar PC came up on 24:24 were certain codes/box dates repeated? There may be a certain code/month that was especially good for a particular marca/vitola.

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Do we have info for which box codes went with which vitolas? For example, for each time that Bolivar PC came up on 24:24 were certain codes/box dates repeated? There may be a certain code/month that was especially good for a particular marca/vitola.

Boli Petit Corona is almost exclusively ULA . The months vary. Quality is consistent. You just get a batch here and there that is superior, but all ULA.

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Do we have info for which box codes went with which vitolas? For example, for each time that Bolivar PC came up on 24:24 were certain codes/box dates repeated? There may be a certain code/month that was especially good for a particular marca/vitola.

Just created a tab which breaks down the data by vitola:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bXWspUyDYpTnd1pZVPddm2sJkE7TR19aJyx6QzMl0h4/edit#gid=365898236

It's not perfect (the source data differentiates between some things that we might call the same vitola, so you need to consider that), and the table is large... but there you go. smile.png

EDIT: Made a change to the sheet. It's correct now, showing all offerings.

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Just created a tab which breaks down the data by vitola:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bXWspUyDYpTnd1pZVPddm2sJkE7TR19aJyx6QzMl0h4/edit#gid=365898236

It's not perfect (the source data differentiates between some things that we might call the same vitola, so you need to consider that), and the table is large... but there you go. smile.png

EDIT: Made a change to the sheet. It's correct now, showing all offerings.

Excellent data. By following trends specifically to vitola, I can see what has come up often and what has come up rarely. This can be of assistance for future trends. Thanks planetary!

P.S. I knew there were no Siglo I or Siglo III offerings in the last six months, but I wasn't aware that Siglo V's came up once.

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Boli Petit Corona is almost exclusively ULA . The months vary. Quality is consistent. You just get a batch here and there that is superior, but all ULA.

I haven't had a chance to sit and read through this thread properly, but just a thought.....

If the BPC always comes from ULA - i.e. the same factory, shouldn't it be quite easy to find out which factory this Vitola comes from? We can then assign ULA to 'X' factory, and use this as a base to calculate the factory codes each time they change.

Perhaps I misunderstood, and this means that only the PSP BPCs tend to be ULA? Even so, if you want to break the factory codes, maybe look for an unusual vitola that is only produced in one factory?

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This is very neat, thanks.

One thing I find interesting is that the nicest box I have, in about 25, is the Partagas 8-9-8 V's I bought on a PSP 24:24 not too long back, box code TOR SEP 15. Every cigar is perfect... truly perfect. I can see this is the first time the code appeared on FOH but has anyone seen it before?

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For what it's worth I have seen this code associated with Siglo 4 and RYJ A/T Number 2, both dated Sept.15. No idea of quality just on a list. This is the trend I believe we will start seeing develop over the next 6-12 months. New codes with great quality. TOS is another code I've been seeing a lot lately for late summer-fall 2015 produced boxes. I'm highly interested to see the development of quality codes from 2016 purchases on 24:24 and/or member feedback.

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I would genuinely like for anyone to add to, or refute any part of this educated guess--I think it's safe to assume BTO in late 2013 to early 2014, and MUO from 2014-2015 was El Laguito because of Behike being rolled there. Also EML last 1.5 years would be La Corona because of HDM production, Cuaba production, San Cris, and Por Larranga. Next up would be ULA being Partagas due to its production of Bolivar, Partagas, and Ramon Allones. And finally LUB which would be H. Upmann due to prevalence in H Upmann production, some RYJ, and some various others like Vegas Robaina, and Monte. RAE has me puzzled a bit, but I want to think it's the newly renovated El Ray Del Mundo factory due to readings I've done and what they are producing--similar to Partagas. These are also the factories which people can visit so keeping the codes a secret may not be extremely important.

I am most interested in the month and date of the better production in all this than factory hunting. Why does one factory produce better (statistically significant) numbers of "better" cigars at certain times of the year? Just a curiousity and fun to mess around with. I believe there has to be a trend here. Let me know what you think.

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I'm curious if there is a particular season or set of months when you have the best chance of scoring good boxes (or getting bad ones). For example, is my understanding that rollers go on vacation in August? Seems like quality of roll might dip immediately before...

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I'm curious if there is a particular season or set of months when you have the best chance of scoring good boxes (or getting bad ones). For example, is my understanding that rollers go on vacation in August? Seems like quality of roll might dip immediately before...

Great question. This data -- being only a partial year's view, along with its other limitations -- is not enough to say. But I created a table showing HQ/PSP by production month of year (irrespective of which year):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bXWspUyDYpTnd1pZVPddm2sJkE7TR19aJyx6QzMl0h4/edit#gid=1837413416

The top 3 production months which generated HQ/PSP offerings are April, May, and June. But as noted earlier in this thread, most of the boxes on sale later in the year come from production periods ~9 months previous -- so that may explain this more than anything else.

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Great question. This data -- being only a partial year's view, along with its other limitations -- is not enough to say. But I created a table showing HQ/PSP by production month of year (irrespective of which year):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bXWspUyDYpTnd1pZVPddm2sJkE7TR19aJyx6QzMl0h4/edit#gid=1837413416

The top 3 production months which generated HQ/PSP offerings are April, May, and June. But as noted earlier in this thread, most of the boxes on sale later in the year come from production periods ~9 months previous -- so that may explain this more than anything else.

Interesting findings. Would be interesting to normalize by evaluating over the course of several years.
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I would genuinely like for anyone to add to, or refute any part of this educated guess--I think it's safe to assume BTO in late 2013 to early 2014, and MUO from 2014-2015 was El Laguito because of Behike being rolled there. Also EML last 1.5 years would be La Corona because of HDM production, Cuaba production, San Cris, and Por Larranga. Next up would be ULA being Partagas due to its production of Bolivar, Partagas, and Ramon Allones. And finally LUB which would be H. Upmann due to prevalence in H Upmann production, some RYJ, and some various others like Vegas Robaina, and Monte. RAE has me puzzled a bit, but I want to think it's the newly renovated El Ray Del Mundo factory due to readings I've done and what they are producing--similar to Partagas. These are also the factories which people can visit so keeping the codes a secret may not be extremely important.

I am most interested in the month and date of the better production in all this than factory hunting. Why does one factory produce better (statistically significant) numbers of "better" cigars at certain times of the year? Just a curiousity and fun to mess around with. I believe there has to be a trend here. Let me know what you think.

I think your educated guesses are highly plausible. I wonder how much of the 'human factor' plays a part in construction consistency in factories? I work for a large organisation, and there is a large disparity in working environments depending on who manages them. Just a thought...innocent.gif

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