Polishing your Crystal ball.

[El Presidente]

Polishing your Crystal ball 

1. Your Pick for the next cigar on the HSA Chopping Block?

2. Your Pick for the next (unannounced) regular production cigar to be released?

 

 

[dominattorney]

I'll play. 

1 plpc

2 some kind of Edmundo sized Cohiba 

[rhcolbert]

Party shorts

boli wide short bfs

[TomF]

1. LGC Md'O #2

2. Something fat.

[brschoppe]

1. LGC Md'O #4
2. LGC Robusto or Churchill


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[PamunkeyHub]

Monte #5

56+ ring-gauge Bolivar 

[rckymtn22]

1. Boli Corona Jr

2. H Upmann Magnum 58

[polarbear]

Chopped- Hoyo de Monterrey Le Hoyo Du Maire

"Coming Soon"- Cohiba "Short Robusto" (3.5x50ish)

[cigaraholic]

1 SP Non Plus

2 R&J Extra Super Wide Churchill 

[rhcolbert]

52 minutes ago, brschoppe said:

1. LGC Md'O #4
2. LGC Robusto or Churchill


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I'd actually really enjoy the prospect of a proper lgc Churchill.  I could deal with that one. 

[NSXCIGAR]

1. MdO2, JLPC, SLR DC, HdM DD pretty much all have one foot in the grave. All of those have their heads on the block.

2. No way to know, but 99% chance it will be a 52+ RG. 

I definitely don't think many of the cigars listed by some will be cut soon. Minutos and Perlas generally do not get cut. The Party Shorts is a huge seller. Maybe the 50 cab will be cut, but the Shorts aren't going anywhere. Monte 5 is also a huge worldwide seller. If any Monte gets cut it'll be the 1 or 3. Boli CJ I also don't think is going anywhere. Ending the MdO4 would effectively end the LCG line--definitely not getting cut next.

I think to pick the next cigar cut, you have to start with a cigar that's a size HSA hates and then move to cigars that are slow sellers or are low production already. The MdO2 and HdM DD really meet both criteria in spades. I'd put my money on those two for the 2018 cuts. 

[Lotusguy]

1. QdO Coronas
2. 56RG Punch (shudder)

[Texwrangler]

PL Monte's

Trini Reyes

[archosaur]

1.  SCDLH El Morro

2.  A short, fat Ramon Allones...54RG and less than 4.5"

[watches_whiskies_cigars]

1) They're going to keep LGC MdO 4 and QdO Coronas so that they can release regional edition cigars under those brands. Next on the chopping block is likely BCJ and PLMC.

2) H Upmann 56 regular production 

[rhcolbert]

26 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

1. MdO2, JLPC, SLR DC, HdM DD pretty much all have one foot in the grave. All of those have their heads on the block.

2. No way to know, but 99% chance it will be a 52+ RG. 

I definitely don't think many of the cigars listed by some will be cut soon. Minutos and Perlas generally do not get cut. The Party Shorts is a huge seller. Maybe the 50 cab will be cut, but the Shorts aren't going anywhere. Monte 5 is also a huge worldwide seller. If any Monte gets cut it'll be the 1 or 3. Boli CJ I also don't think is going anywhere. Ending the MdO4 would effectively end the LCG line--definitely not getting cut next.

I think to pick the next cigar cut, you have to start with a cigar that's a size HSA hates and then move to cigars that are slow sellers or are low production already. The MdO2 and HdM DD really meet both criteria in spades. I'd put my money on those two for the 2018 cuts. 

Shows what I know, I thought all but the MdO 4 were already chopped 

[skalls]

SCDH El Morro

58 RG x 5.5" Cohiba.  Priced at starting at $675 US dollars bc reasons.

[rhcolbert]

33 minutes ago, skalls said:

SCDH El Morro

58 RG x 5.5" Cohiba.  Priced at starting at $675 US dollars bc reasons.

Time to get some scdlh la fuerza too just as a cya

[SticksAndSticks]

Sancho Panza Belicosos

Some big fat horrible thing.

 

What i'd love to be next released: Return of Dipolatico's 4s or 5s

[JohnS]

Hmmm...a crystal ball @El Presidente? When it comes to Habanos S.A and deletions, did any of us see the Hoyo de Monterrey Le Hoyo du Prince, H.Upmann Petit Corona and Bolivar Corona Gigantes being deleted in 2017? 

The question is why were these deleted? I don't think they were necessarily poor sellers, rather their deletion often coerces the consumer to purchase similar-blended cigars within the same marca, maximising profits. Otherwise, why does Cuaba never get deleted, or minutos and perlas, like @NSXCIGAR mentioned? Those smaller cigars stand on their own, usually stronger and more intense in flavours, H.S.A knows the axing of a smaller cigar won't influence you to go for a bigger one that's milder necessarily.

You can also bank on the big marcas too, Cohiba, Montecristo and Partagas fans, I think you are safe.

No, I think those local marcas are safe, the ones with only two or three regular production vitolas. But beware Romeo y Julieta Cedros de Luxe No.3, Romeo y Julieta Petit Coronas, San Cristobal El Morro, Trinidad Coloniales et. al for your days may be numbered. Yet, have we not seen it before?

What is the next regular (unannounced) regular production cigar? Well, let's look at 2016...

* Cohiba Medio Siglo 

* H.Upmann Magnum 54

* Quintero Tubulares

and 2017...

* Montecristo Dumas, Maltes and Leyenda (i.e. the Montecristo version of the Cohiba Behike line)

* Quai d'Orsay No.50 and No.54

* Romeo y Julieta Petit Royales.

In 2018, I predict another short and fat cigar will be released amongst the Multi-Local brands. A Bolivar or Punch version of the Cohiba Medio Siglo or H.Upmann Magnum 54.

[miurajus]

What's smoking good now?  Prince, BCG, Rob alerts the masses and poof, gone.

1.  Obvious, Punch Punch. 

2.  Bolivar, or RA tree trunk.

[Notsocleaver]

1) Rafael Gonzalez - Petit Coronas

--- They seem to be hating on those PCs, and the Perlas probably make more money for them.

2) Punch in the Magnum 54 format

--- Seems like they have something going there with Current Punch, and its a release that wouldn't likely impinge on RE sales like a new RA or Bolivar would.

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, SticksAndSticks said:

Sancho Panza Belicosos

SPB ain't going anywhere. I have no doubt it's SP's best seller. Non-Plus will go long before the Beli. Plus, HSA loves Campanas. No Campanas has ever been cut post-Revolution.

2 hours ago, JohnS said:

Hmmm...a crystal ball @El Presidente? When it comes to Habanos S.A and deletions, did any of us see the Hoyo de Monterrey Le Hoyo du Prince, H.Upmann Petit Corona and Bolivar Corona Gigantes being deleted in 2017? 

The question is why were these deleted?

I believe the BCG was a fairly poor seller. Not until 2015 when they became arguably the best cigar coming out of Havana did interest pique. And of course, when the cut was announced, these things became hotter than Edmundo Dantes. Not to mention Julieta 2s are marked for death vitolas by HSA.

Same pretty much goes for the HUPC and HdM DP by my estimation. Both cigars have had a serious quality increase since 2013-2014 and sales ostensibly began to increase, but prior to a few years ago I doubt either cigar sold well. Rob could give some insight into this--I'd love to see how much of either he sold prior to him touting them hard in the last few years. And, of course, the PC or close sizes are both marked for death.

2 hours ago, JohnS said:

No, I think those local marcas are safe, the ones with only two or three regular production vitolas. But beware Romeo y Julieta Cedros de Luxe No.3, Romeo y Julieta Petit Coronas, San Cristobal El Morro, Trinidad Coloniales et. al for your days may be numbered. Yet, have we not seen it before?

I agree, the global brands generally see less cuts and have many more redundant and "unpoular" vitolas. My god, RyJ has five Marevas, and the Club Kings haven't even shown up yet! I would normally say the PC would be on the chopping block, but who knows with the global brands. Between the Aristocrats, Mille Fleurs, Habaneros, Super Partagas and Petit Coronas Especiales, you'd think there'd be one Partagas ripe for a cut, but no such luck.

Predictably, the RyJ Cedros No 1 was cut, and I think the Romeo No 1 is next up for the axe. I also think you're right on the money and the Coloniales are probably closer to a cut than many would think. The El Morro is one many are mentioning, and I do certainly think that it's days are numbered. Could it get cut in 2018? Sure. But I just think there are some others that are surer bets.

[PatrickEwing]

Sadly I think the RAG could be under threat. My experience is limited admittedly, but to me, this is the king of DCs. Rich, interesting, complex, but doesn't seem a big seller (?). 

This would leave RA with RAS, RASS & RASCC. No S in your acronym and you're toast. Unless you're a regional and then game on. 

[hedgeybaby]

1. Punch Punch

2. Cohiba Revolucion 6x 60