Trump Cuba Policy Announcement

[suggs]

I must be. Your argument is air-tight.

[JR Kipling]

12 hours ago, FLB03TT said:

No current system is perfect. However, to my mind, capitalism works better than the alternatives.

IMO our woes come from having cronyism rather than true free markets. There will be a price paid for this. As Rob mentioned earlier, Western governments are actually bankrupt.

But even as imperfectly applied as it is, capitalism has produced far greater material wealth than communism. The latter is definitely Not the direction to go IMO.

So, what's my point ?  The way these systems are presented, the p.r. line, doesn't match the reality of how they operate. Believing in fairy tales will get the average citizen nowhere.

[JR Kipling]

13 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I don't want to be a party pooper.....but recent evidence circa 2008 shows that Capitalism doesn't work either. The big get bigger, competition decreases, the chasing of labour to the cheapest provider,  power concentrates,  over reach and then....pop. 

Bail outs with play money is the stuff we use to "tutt tutt" at South American nations. 

 

.....mind you I love playing in the capitalism cess pit. 

 

 

IIRC from watching a YouTube Rob, you have a past background in banking ?

My background includes that in finance & trading.  That practical experience tends to remove the rose colored glasses with which others may view these topics.

 

[suggs]

Two points here: capitalism and communism don't produce wealth, labor does. Capitalism and communism determine who control the means of production and, therefore, who reaps the rewards.

Just so we're clear, how are your "true" free markets not fairy tales in the same sense you're criticizing others for?

[JR Kipling]

Those who fail need to go broke. No 'too big to fail' as a start. Glass-Steagall re-enacted in the U.S. (and not a watered down version that can easily be circumvented). Corporate or government big wigs going to prison if caught committing crimes. Rule of Law actually followed. Federal Reserve audited and the whole privately owned system of fiat debt based money re-examined

Perfection isn't possible in this world, but we sure can do a lot better than we are now IMO.

[suggs]

Cheers! I can get behind all of that!

[Fugu]

On 11/06/2017 at 10:35 PM, ElJavi76 said:

......

Viva una Cuba libre, y específicamente libre de los hermanos Castro y su socialismo.

This I find an interesting post by someone being actually personally affected.

In your opinion, what would be the most effective measures to bring changes about on the island? In Cuba, can any external - political as well as economical - measures actually have the ability to show any effect at all? Or is it an enduring illusion, and do we eventually have to see the Cuban people stand up for their rights?

You are one of the many who left / fled the island, and you had good reason for that. Fully aware of that and also of the fact that e.g. the support from Cuban expats is much needed to feed their relatives on the island. On the other hand, I see the peril that the permanent drain of intellectuals, oppositionists and dissidents won't do any good to Cuba in the long run. For, these people are also much needed just there on the island. The regime seems all too happy to get rid of those men and women. So, after almost 60 years of proven ineffectiveness of the embargo, what could effectively be done, I ask?

Would you mind sharing your personal perspective on that?

[MaxG]

17 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I don't want to be a party pooper.....but recent evidence circa 2008 shows that Capitalism doesn't work either. The big get bigger, competition decreases, the chasing of labour to the cheapest provider,  power concentrates,  over reach and then....pop. 

Bail outs with play money is the stuff we use to "tutt tutt" at South American nations. 

 

.....mind you I love playing in the capitalism cess pit. 

 

 

 

Excellent example of something that didn't (and wouldn't again) work, Rob, but that wasn't capitalism.  A capitalist reaps the gains and suffers the losses of his investment.  What Wall St. conned Washington into in '08 was something very different. 

If I could gamble with other people's money and keep the winnings (but not pony up the losses) I'd spend a hell of a lot more time in Vegas.

But, if you're saying capitalism isn't always perfect, or fair, or turns out the way you want it to, then sure, that's a no-brainer.  Completely agree.

 

- MG

 

[ElJavi76]

2 hours ago, Fugu said:

This I find an interesting post by someone being actually personally affected.

In your opinion, what would be the most effective measures to bring changes about on the island? In Cuba, can any external - political as well as economical - measures actually have the ability to show any effect at all? Or is it an enduring illusion, and do we eventually have to see the Cuban people stand up for their rights?

You are one of the many who left / fled the island, and you had good reason for that. Fully aware of that and also of the fact that e.g. the support from Cuban expats is much needed to feed their relatives on the island. On the other hand, I see the peril that the permanent drain of intellectuals, oppositionists and dissidents won't do any good to Cuba in the long run. For, these people are also much needed just there on the island. The regime seems all too happy to get rid of those men and women. So, after almost 60 years of proven ineffectiveness of the embargo, what could effectively be done, I ask?

Would you mind sharing your personal perspective on that?

Fugu,

Thanks for picking up on that nuance. And now for the ugly truth. 

I'm 40 years of age. I left while I was still a pup, but have plenty of family affected. My maternal side of the family has been very lucky, winning several visa lotteries to exit in the last decade. My father's side hasn't been as lucky. It was my father's nephew who fled on a raft lovey 15 years ago. For those who doubt how good it bad it really is... Pause and think of how many Cubans have died on homemade rafts in those waters. How desperate must you be? Let me rope in my punchline... Folks in my age group specifically have been indoctrinated to think of the USA as the evil Imperialists. So some folks say the embargo has done nothing. It's been a tool used by the Communists to promote their agenda. What some might not know is that Cuba has been buying food and medical supplies from the USA for over 15 years. Yes, those awful Yankees sold food and medicine to Cuba after the island was decimated by hurricane Michelle back in 2001. They continued to buy food and medicine but the numbers have gone down considerably, even under Obama. So we haven't been as cruel or inhumane as some would think. Certainly not as awful as the government in Cuba would have their citizens believe. 

In my estimation, the embargo was in place and is in place to allow the Cuban people to take their freedom back. One of previous posts had mention of a graffiti artist, El Sexto Maldonado... His rant that got him arrested? After Fidel's death he posted a video on his Facebook page challenging all Cubans. He said, the mule is dead and it's midnight in Havana. Where is everyone? Why are we not taking to the streets? Do you really think your liberty will be delivered to your doorstep? We have to fight for it. Go out and get it ourselves. He was arrested without charges and beaten to a pulp. We know why he was arrested but my point is... The only way freedom comes to that island is from within. Just like Fidel snatched it from Batista. They need a leader within to have an insurrection. Communists are not dummies. Why is Cuba so safe to travel to? Nobody owns a gun and people are terrified of going to jail. You can get sentenced without any due process. They've subjugated an entire population. It's incredible! That's why the Bay of Pigs was so important and why there's no love loss between Cuban Americans and President Kennedy. Who knows what the real story was but it happened on his watch. 

Ultimately, the Cubans have to take their island back. Will it happen with the aid of the CIA or some other US intervention? I'm sure Cubans on the island have a sour taste in their mouths over that one. Opening 2 Sheratons and 8 McDonald's in Havana shouldn't drive change. Real freedom for Cubans should drive them to make the change. Communism is lovely, maybe even noble, on paper. It's never worked. It will never work. Go to Venezuela and ask the zoo animals is they think it's working. Or how there's cannibalism going on in their prisons. I hope a few brave Cubans can muster the energy to be real heros.

I don't think exiled Cubans would give a shit about reparations if their island was given back to its people. I just wanna sit down to an espresso near my childhood home. Feel that sun. Feel at home. 

[MaxG]

17 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

sure, but if you take away something that has been key in the survival of this govt for decades, you make it that much harder for them. you make it that much more obvious to many cubans that the govt they have is perhaps not an ideal one - in so many ways.

there is no magic stroke but that does not mean getting rid of this embargo would not be a huge positive step.

 

One could make the argument that we've been exploring an ultra-light version of ending the embargo since Obama's changes (at least until this Friday comes).  The result?  Sky-high, ridiculous price rises, US demand for travelling to Cuba way overestimated, even more food going to paladares instead of "the people", etc...  Haven't heard of infrastructure improvements (do we count the luxury mall?), fair pay to farmers, or the like.  Too little too soon to say this would be what an embargo end looks like?  Yea, I'll buy that.  But still.

None of my comments should be taken to be supporting the embargo.  The embargo is probably only exceeded on the clusterf**k scale in US Policy history by Prohibition.  Kennedy and Castro are both in their graves still waiting for the other to blink.  My eight-year old grandson has more mature dispute resolutions on his school playground than this.

What was "key in the survival" of the Cuban government for decades was the Soviet Union propping them up.  Mama (bear in this case) running a sack lunch to school every damn day for the kid who can't seem to keep the lunch money in his pocket between home and the cafeteria.  I imagine the boys in DC thought this would (maybe) be the wake-up call to the Cuban people "that the govt they have is perhaps not an ideal one," when it was shown how well they walk without crutches, but it wasn't. 

Eventually there will be no more 50 year old replacement parts for machinery in Moscow's street markets.  What then?  I hope we don't find out.     

- MG

[BrightonCorgi]

Has any plan or change on Cuba been formerly declared by our current regime in the US?  There's a lot of speculation.  

Imposing further restrictions on Cuba seems to go against his campaign promise of growing the economy quickly.  Opening the floodgates to Cuban business seems like low hanging fruit to make a quick buck in our economy.  I can see our regime going either way on the issue or just kick the can as it is today.  

How important is changing Cuban policy from what it is today in the scheme of US with all that is going on?

[Randy956]

For once, a fascinating thread.

Actually, another quite interesting thread of the many here.

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[chris12381]

Has any plan or change on Cuba been formerly declared by our current regime in the US?  There's a lot of speculation.  

 

Imposing further restrictions on Cuba seems to go against his campaign promise of growing the economy quickly.  Opening the floodgates to Cuban business seems like low hanging fruit to make a quick buck in our economy.  I can see our regime going either way on the issue or just kick the can as it is today.  

 

How important is changing Cuban policy from what it is today in the scheme of US with all that is going on?

 

No. But we are slowly learning more about their intent. It has been alluded that there will be an announcement made this Friday about rolling back many of the significant changes that were made. This would revert back to the previous status quo.

 

Significant today, Rex Tillerson stated, “We believe it is important that we take steps to restore the purpose of the Helms Burton legislation, which was to pressure the regime to change, and that pressure, in our view, has been largely lifted."

 

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[oakalley]

I firmly believe that this embargo rollback has nothing at all to do with Cuba, the Cuban people or human rights. Sure, those are just window dressing to attempt to legitimize a lie.  Trump has decided in his malevolent little mind that he is going to undo every policy, executive order and law that was enacted by the Obama presidency. Trump has decided that everything that has been done in the past eight years is evil, wrong and should be smashed to bits. Look at his track record thus far. Name any positive thing he has done,. Every waking moment has been squandered with plans to undo, not do. Unfortunately, everyone suffers here. Most of all the Cuban population. We ask ourselves why are not liked, even despised in a lot of the world? Maybe because we hold out hope to people and just as they approach the point where they can see the prize we offered, they are smacked down, only to see the prize speeding off in the distance.

[Customsfan]

2 hours ago, SenorPerfecto said:

Working on the periphery of the travel industry, I offer this advice to Americans who wish to go to Cuba:

 

Plan a trip before Friday. Plan to go to Cuba before January 1, 2018. Buy trip insurance, but you won't need it. Buy your plane ticket and arrange your hotel now.

 

Once the travel ban (what is it with this buffoon and banning travel?) goes into effect, it will almost certainly allow those who have already bought a trip keep their plans intact; no new plane tickets or hotel reservations will be honored once the announcement is made (or, after the grace period if there is one).

I hope he offers a grace period.   It would only be fair to honor tickets already purchased.

 

[JR Kipling]

I firmly believe that this embargo rollback has nothing at all to do with Cuba, the Cuban people or human rights. Sure, those are just window dressing to attempt to legitimize a lie.  Trump has decided in his malevolent little mind that he is going to undo every policy, executive order and law that was enacted by the Obama presidency. Trump has decided that everything that has been done in the past eight years is evil, wrong and should be smashed to bits. Look at his track record thus far. Name any positive thing he has done,. Every waking moment has been squandered with plans to undo, not do. Unfortunately, everyone suffers here. Most of all the Cuban population. We ask ourselves why are not liked, even despised in a lot of the world? Maybe because we hold out hope to people and just as they approach the point where they can see the prize we offered, they are smacked down, only to see the prize speeding off in the distance.

Nope. Its about Presidential election politics and Florida is important for that. JFK wanted cigars exempted from the embargo, but Tampa FL cigar manufacturers opposed that. Thus, the embargo included cigars.
If a U.S. presidential candidate could win Florida by lifting the embargo, he would do it. If he could win Florida by maintaining the embargo, he would do it. Pres Trump won FL in 2016. It was close. He will do like most politicians and act in the manner that improves his odds of remaining in office. If the 2020 Dem presidential candidate can win FL then by promising to maintain the embargo, I bet you a box of cigars that they will do just that.


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[Wertman]

I am interested in finding out what Trump wants to do I want to take my family on a vacation to maybe Jamaica but would try Cuba if Trump still lets Americans.

[planetary]

Will wait for the real announcement, but if true...

More bureaucracy?  

[TheGipper]

So much misinformation in this thread, so little time...

1. All...I'll say it again, *ALL* TARP funds that went to financial institutions were repaid 100%-plus-interest.  TARP/TARPII bailouts made money for the US taxpayer (except for bailout funds that went to the automotive industry.  While the automotive industry technically repaid their TARP loans, they received the benefit of bypass of senior debt holders that was not repaid; no banks received similar debt bypass.)  If you're upset about your tax dollars going to big Wall Streeters; well then, be relieved the Wall Street folks paid all that back and more.

2. The Lehman / Merrill / AIG liquidity crises arose almost entirely from well-intentioned mark to market accounting rules (put in place after Enron asset pricing fraud).  The companies with large subprime portfolios normally would have been able to hold the performing loans until things improved; instead, regulatory capital requirements and a seized up bond market forced those companies to sell that debt at fire-sale valuations which were way below their actual performance (many MBS securities were sold at prices assuming 90%+ percent default rates, which we never got anywhere close to in the subprime range, let alone the entire mortgage market in aggregate).

3. Glass-Steagall was never repealed.  No really.   Go look it up.  It still is in place today.  Gramm-Leach-Bliley made a change to Glass-Steagall to allow banks to affiliate with securities firms.  It never allowed banks to invest insured money in MBS.  Couldn't happen before Gramm-Leach-Bliley; couldn't happen after it; couldn't happen in 2008; and still can't happen today.

4. Glass-Steagall has nothing to do with non-bank mortgage trading.  It does not regulate non-banks.  It does not regulate mortgage backed securities.  You'll notice all the big failures, like Lehman, and AIG are not banks.  In fact, if the pre-Gramm-Leach-Bliley laws had still been in place in 2008, then the rescue of Merrill Lynch by B of A would have been impossible (illegal).  It would have resulted in another massive bankruptcy.  Because Gramm-Leach-Bliley allowed B of A to buy them, Merrill was saved and is doing very well today under B of A.  And remember, even today, when you deposit into a B of A bank account, current regulations don't allow B of A to then give that money to their Merrill Lynch division to invest in "risky" assets.  So all the imagined "risky" dabbling by post-Gramm-Leach-Bliley banks into exotic securities isn't happening.  Didn't happen before Gramm-Leach-Bliley, didn't happen in 2008, and still not happening today.

[Ryan]

28 minutes ago, SenorPerfecto said:

More Cuba info:

 

"Travelers to Cuba will have to keep detailed records of all their financial transactions in the country for five years to make available to the Treasury Department if requested."

Most casa particular owners won't like giving out receipts.

Go to Ebay in Spain or Mexico and buy a blank book of receipts in Spanish, a search for "libro de recibos en blancos" should get you started.

Fill it in yourself and have a Cuban friend sign it, illegibly.

You're not lying, if you've stayed in a casa particular.

 

"Anyone who travels to Cuba, however, might be able to stay at an Airbnb or eat at an independent restaurant, although that interpretation is not clearly spelled out in the draft order. But those who go to the island under a U.S. license will need to keep strict notes proving they’re complying with the new executive order – or face fines."

 

"Paying for goods and services from Cuba’s small class of independent entrepreneurs, known as “cuentapropistas” who often run small cafes or inns out of their own homes, will be permitted."

 

Independent restaurants are generally better anyway.

Go to a food market, take pictures. I can't think of any food market in the world that gives receipts. Pictures are proof that you ate at home/apartment while helping the Cuban people.

 

"The directive instructs the Secretary of the Treasury to consult with the Commerce Department to promulgate new rules 90 days after the presidential policy directive is issued Friday."

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/15/trump-cuba-policy-239596?cmpid=sf

 

Anyone up for a trip before mid-September? Looks like FOH fest in November is going to be a no-go.

 

Nothing so far to necessarily prevent a trip to Cuba, while staying within the law.

Bring a baseball glove and give it to a kid, take a few pictures. People to people.

Go to a nightclub run by Cuban entrepreneurs, again they are the best clubs. These places generally give receipts. People to people.

Put all your receipts and some pictures in a folder and stash it somewhere.

One thing I saw somewhere was that travelers to Cuba on a people-to-people license must go as part of an organised tour.

That could be awkward, but doable. I know a few small US outfits already doing official people-to-people tours. Cost might be a factor.

I guess we'll find out the full details tomorrow.

What I know of leaked political statements though, as this one kind of is, is that they are generally to "soften the blow". The actual statement is rarely worse.

[Ken Gargett]

"Travelers to Cuba will have to keep detailed records of all their financial transactions in the country for five years to make available to the Treasury Department if requested."

Most casa particular owners won't like giving out receipts.

Go to Ebay in Spain or Mexico and buy a blank book of receipts in Spanish, a search for "libro de recibos en blancos" should get you started.

Fill it in yourself and have a Cuban friend sign it, illegibly.

You're not lying, if you've stayed in a casa particular.

 

absolutely nothing to do with me what people do in those circumstances, but please, "you're not lying"????

you have pretty much described textbook fraud.

one may or might not feel that there is justification but the act is fraud.

for those concerned, i would keep a detailed financial record/diary, made contemporaneously. have the notes witnessed at the time of making them, detail that you were unable to get a receipt in accordance with the usual custom of the country, take photos of the casa P. but buying your own book of receipts, filling them in yourself and having some unrelated 3rd party sign them is fraud.

[El Presidente]

5 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

 

absolutely nothing to do with me what people do in those circumstances, but please, "you're not lying"????

you have pretty much described textbook fraud.

one may or might not feel that there is justification but the act is fraud.

for those concerned, i would keep a detailed financial record/diary, made contemporaneously. have the notes witnessed at the time of making them, detail that you were unable to get a receipt in accordance with the usual custom of the country, take photos of the casa P. but buying your own book of receipts, filling them in yourself and having some unrelated 3rd party sign them is fraud.

While not an expert in the area like Ken, I am an advocate that stupid laws such as these are tantamount to "recommendations" and should be treated as such. 

[Ryan]

15 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

"Travelers to Cuba will have to keep detailed records of all their financial transactions in the country for five years to make available to the Treasury Department if requested."

Most casa particular owners won't like giving out receipts.

Go to Ebay in Spain or Mexico and buy a blank book of receipts in Spanish, a search for "libro de recibos en blancos" should get you started.

Fill it in yourself and have a Cuban friend sign it, illegibly.

You're not lying, if you've stayed in a casa particular.

 

absolutely nothing to do with me what people do in those circumstances, but please, "you're not lying"????

you have pretty much described textbook fraud.

one may or might not feel that there is justification but the act is fraud.

for those concerned, i would keep a detailed financial record/diary, made contemporaneously. have the notes witnessed at the time of making them, detail that you were unable to get a receipt in accordance with the usual custom of the country, take photos of the casa P. but buying your own book of receipts, filling them in yourself and having some unrelated 3rd party sign them is fraud.

I should have worded it more carefully. 

The purpose of the receipt book is that they come with carbon copies, in duplicate or triplicate.

Only once have I ever got a receipt from a casa owner. For whatever reason they don't like giving them out. 

They are legal, they are registered, they take a copy of my passport for their book etc. But they don't give out receipts. It's possible they just don't have them and don't like signing bits of paper.

What I would say is, and what I was saying is, fill out a receipt for the amount spent in the casa particular. The amount actually spent.

OK there would be fraud in having someone else sign it, so don't have someone else sign it, see if the casa owner will sign it, they might, especially if it's in Spanish, so they can read what it's for, then you're all set. But there is no fraud either way in the amount spent with local Cubans rather than the Cuban government.

As Prez says, it's a recommendation.

[Ken Gargett]

as to the stupidity of the entire thing, i am fully on board. no question. no comments were only as to the legalities pertaining to the actions. it sometimes surprises the laymen but there is no group on earth who knows just how truly 'the law is an ass' as lawyers. of course, that is what keeps lots of them fed. i'm not suggestions that there is an intent to deceive in relation to how/why/what was spent but if any authority discovers that there has been an attempt to deceive in respect of any aspect of the transaction, they are not likely to be of a mind to assist and/or forgive. but up to everyone to make up their own mind as to how they approach this.

rob, as to these being "recommendations", good luck to all convincing the US government that their regulations and legislation should be seen purely as 'recommendations'!

filling out a receipt book, provided no attempt to convince anyone that the relevant receipt/s were actually provided and/or signed by a third party, or keeping a financial diary is effectively the same thing.  i would certainly be doing either if we were subject to these "recommendations".

[BolivarSmoker]

"if any authority discovers that there has been an attempt to deceive in respect of any aspect of the transaction, they are not likely to be of a mind to assist and/or forgive."


The government lies to us every chance they get, but boy we better keep a detailed log of our trips to Cuba and be 100%, scouts honor truthful!

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