The next cigar trend....and why?

[El Presidente]

2020 - 2030

 

Can you pick the next cigar trend? If you have a hunch, share it. 

This thread isn't meant for the "Chicken Little" brigade to roll out the wet blankets     At the same time we positive and negative trends are welcome. 

Based on demand, supply, lifestyle changes, regions, legislation.......have a crack at picking what we will be seeing in the next decade that we haven't really seen as yet 

[prodigy]

US and Cuba relations improve. US market opens officially. Demand far exceeds supply and we all have to fight harder and pay more

Plus side is quality goes up and up between now and then.

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[Derboesekoenig]

No way in hell I see the US lifting the embargo. Cuba's political climate is not changing. Maybe 50-150 years from now. But not soon. If they did, demand would far exceed the limitations of cigar output in Cuba. Prices would definitely skyrocket

[prodigy]

No way in hell I see the US lifting the embargo. Cuba's political climate is not changing. Maybe 50-150 years from now. But not soon. If they did, demand would far exceed the limitations of cigar output in Cuba. Prices would definitely skyrocket

I mean, we just made progress with North Korea, so I say anything is possible haha

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[Monterey]

Just now, prodigy said:

I mean, we just made progress with North Korea, so I say anything is possible haha

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North Koreans don't live in the United States.  The embargo is about appeasing cuban americans who vote in the swing state of Florida.

[TBird55]

I am afraid,  that in the not too distant future, cabs of 50 will be a thing of the past. 

[Monterey]

My guess/hope.  Robots take over working for us.  With so much free time on our hands we all have time to smoke "A's" and "Double Corona's" all day.  The short quick smoke for our workaday lifestyle will be gone.

I can only hope  

[oliverdst]

I have no idea about cigar itself but I would say 4-5 limited edition/year (market already mature for it) and regular production boxes with 20 units (less cigars more boxes for everyone).

[scap99]

I'm hoping the jaw breaker movement fizzles and we start seeing more Lonsdale and Lancero come on line.

[Wailbait]

1 minute ago, scap99 said:

I'm hoping the jaw breaker movement fizzles and we start seeing more Lonsdale and Lancero come on line.

Pretty much exactly what I was going to write.  Admittedly, that’s not a prediction - it’s more of a wish.  

[dimi68]

In countries with ever increasing duties will push cigars back to the realm of the gentry and elitist's. The Little man's days are numbered due to stagnant wages & future automation.

America is currently an anomaly due to non taxable imports,this will change at some point.

By 2025 the big push to ban all tobacco products in some western countries will begin in earnest!

Future growth of cigar sales will come from Middle-asia.

[TBird55]

4 minutes ago, SenorPerfecto said:

 

TLDR: stock up on regular production— as much as you can

Ordered another Aristocrat this week for this very reason.

[GasGuy82]

5, 10 and 20 ct boxes become the norm with 25 count boxes the exception and 50 cabs viewed the same way we now view cajons (100 ct).

the bigger question will be if tobacco is banned in Western world or whether it’s a de facto ban i.e. denial of health insurance for tobacco use.

[ThePolskiOgorki]

I think we will see much of the same trend for at least another 5 years. Elimination of some much loved vitolas from different marcas to make way for the next big ring gauge cigars or extra shiny double banded cigars. Only reason I say this is because it seems to be working so why would it change?

[gweilgi]

A lifting of the embargo.  This will lead to more upward pressure on prices and availability, as the US market will be opened up and Cuban cigars will be heavily marketed to American consumers.  This may well also lead to a reduction in quality as the Cubans will be pushed to increase production.  I also see a possibility that such demand may lead to sales of Cuban leaf to NC cigar makers for them to create multi country blends.  

Increasing restrictions and prices across the world.  I fully expect that by 2030, at least one country will ban tobacco outright.  

Fashion always changes.  Currently, producers are moving away from small ring gauges, so I expect them to move right back to producing and promoting lanceros, panatelas and similar vitolas in a decade or two.  My above points about restrictions and demand will also play into this, as small RG and shorter cigars will allow for larger production numbers and shorter smoking times.  

China will be the biggest cigar market in the world as the increasing wealth of its population will mature and will lead to bigger spending on the good things in life in all areas.  

Smuggling and counterfeiting will keep increasing, driven by extortionate taxation.  This should actually be good news for established retailers because reliable and trusted sources will become of increasing importance.  

[JGD]

I expect HSA to continue with its current trend of cutting various regular production, essentially limiting each marca to a handful of vitolas; then increase one off high end productions (more LEs, GRs, other special releases). All of the high end productions will continue to grow in price. Hopefully I’m wrong...

[dvickery]

@gweilgi

bhutan has pretty much banned tobacco outright already ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_Control_Act_of_Bhutan_2010

derrek

[cfc1016]

The brigades of new smokers get bored and go back to their other nouveau riche hobbies. 

Thick ring gauges stop selling like hot cakes. 

Ninfas, entreactos, laguitos, lonsdales, perlas - these become the new rage, as climate change rapidly accelerates and noone wants to be outside long enough for a robusto extra anymore. 

Hey... I can dream...

[Westside Threat]

59 minutes ago, SenorPerfecto said:

Regular production quality will decline precipitously with the opening of the US market and Cuba growing seedlings on every square inch of soil to try to meet demands in the newly legal US market and the insatiable China and India markets.

 

Overall the reputation of the Cuban cigar will suffer, while growers in other regions continue to hone their craft.

 

The finest cigars in the world will no longer be de-facto Cuban, just as the finest wine in the world is no longer de-facto French.

 

TLDR: stock up on regular production— as much as you can store! And keep an open mind to tobacco from other places...

 

 

Agree with all of this.  

[TNT009]

1 hour ago, scap99 said:

I'm hoping the jaw breaker movement fizzles and we start seeing more Lonsdale and Lancero come on line.

If that is going to happen, Im stocking up on fatty's now!

[Lotusguy]

Boxes of 10 and 20 and petacas only. 50 cabs will be discontinued for regular production but still available for a few RE releases.

Smoking will be illegal in many countries but the black market will thrive. Plain packaging in most other countries.

Only 5 Marcas will survive in regular production: Cohiba, RyJ, Montecristo, Upmann, and either Partagas or Hoyo. The rest will be RE like La Escepcion.

Prices will be through the roof like LV/Louboutin/Chanel category luxury goods.

Those are my dire predictions.

[PapaDisco]

3-D Printed Cigars.  The upside is that you can print any vitola, short-and-fat or long-and-skinny, that you like.  The downside is that they will all taste like plastic.  

AI Cigars.  They'll pester and heckle you to get back to work.  Unless you pay extra for the Special Edition AI Cigar, which will complement you on your good looks and fine taste.  

[Fuzz]

Virtual cigars. (patent pending)

Put on the specially crafted googles, insert the nose plugs/inhaler tube and away you go! Easier to store than real cigars that can become mouldy, have tobacco beetle infestations, or get damaged by a malicious ex-partner. 100 times better than e-cigs, as there are no messy chemicals or clouds of potentially toxic vapour. Instead of boxes of cigars and a big humidor taking up valuable space (because let's face it, the world is overcrowded and house prices are skyrocketing), you buy cigar codes. Each code identifies the cigar, year and how many are left in the "box".

Scan the code and realise you are running out of HUPC? No worries, just order some more and see them automatically update in your "virtual humidor". No more wanting for them to be shipped to you, agonising whether they have survived the journey, only to see your mailman launch the box at your front door from their truck. No more grey market cigars or dodgy  salesmen. Immediate cigar satisfaction is just a click away.

Want to smoke a Partagas Serie du Connoisseur #3 but it has been discontinued for over 20 years? No worries, for it is in the virtual library of cigars! (how many of us who remember what a Sdc#3 tastes like will still be around in 10 years, or even can remember what anything tastes like besides soylent green) Just fire up the library and download the appropriate profile. Every cigar in the virtual library has been carefully re-created by a crack team of master cigar blenders, rollers, and tasters. Every cigar will draw perfectly (draw adjustments can be made in the set up menu) and taste the same throughout the box. No more wondering if you're smoking an RGPC or a HUPC.

Want to have a cigar party, but your lardy arse can't get out of the chair? Hold a virtual cigar party! No mess to clean up when everyone leaves, and with the "entertainment" DLC, you don't have to buy any food or give out your booze (because the future will be a dark and miserable place, so lift your spirits by downing some).

Depending on how often you "smoke", you may only need to buy the flavour infusion chem pack every year. Each flavour infuser can make every cigar in the virtual library. Or if you are the adventurous type, create your own custom blend. You can even sell your own custom blends to other virtual cigar enthusiasts.

No messy ash, stinky clothes, expensive storage systems or mooching friends. The Virtual Cigar. The future is here.

(Nose plugs and inhaler tubs must be cleaned after every use, and replaced every 3 months. Failure to do so may lead to toxic mould build up in the tubes. Flavour Infusion Chem Packs only have a shelf life of 12 months. Chem packs must be replaced every year or sooner, and cannot be left in the unit unused for longer than 1 month. Once removed, chem packs cannot be reinserted into the Virtual Cigar device. The user indemnifies Virtual Cigar against all loss, damages, claims, liability, expenses, payments or outgoings incurred by or awarded against Virtual Cigar arising directly or indirectly from the use of the Virtual Cigar device. The user agrees to these conditions upon purchase of the Virtual Cigar device. The user agrees that any data collected from the use of the Virtual Cigar Library will be exploited by Virtual Cigar. This will include your name, address, contact details, banking details and sexual preferences or perversions.  Collected data will be sold to third parties for the purpose of targeted advertising.)

[mt1]

I expect the Monte 1935 to reach near-Behike status, despite being an okay cigar.

[Cubadust]

8 hours ago, SenorPerfecto said:

Regular production quality will decline precipitously with the opening of the US market and Cuba growing seedlings on every square inch of soil to try to meet demands in the newly legal US market and the insatiable China and India markets.

 

Overall the reputation of the Cuban cigar will suffer, while growers in other regions continue to hone their craft.

 

The finest cigars in the world will no longer be de-facto Cuban, just as the finest wine in the world is no longer de-facto French.

 

TLDR: stock up on regular production— as much as you can store! And keep an open mind to tobacco from other places...

 

Pretty much this. And I think we'll see more of the 54+ ring gauge cigars. Much more.