can someone explain brexit?


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This is such a complicated and contentious issue that I fear that its political nature could make it ultimately unsuitable for this forum. Already in this short thread I have seen comments that are fu

OK Ken here goes, after much soul searching and contemplation here is the explanation of the current state of brexit: "We’ve all been on a night out with a mate who says “It’s shit here - let’s go som

From an outsider's perspective, I always thought the reason for the exit was because a sovereign nation did not want other nations dictating its policy. The specific and exact root causes may be varie

Does anyone listen to/watch the news on Radio 4/BBC. I have to hand it to the guy who is there, every day, making himself heard during all the interviews, screaming "Noooooooooo Brexiiiiiiiiiiiit!". Dedication. 

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Im from the US but I was watching a documentary that a guy named Paddy Kielty did called 'My Dad, The Peace Deal and Me'. It was mostly about The Troubles in Ireland but mentioned how big of an impact Brexit could have on the peace.

Is anything being done to prevent the disruption of peace if this goes through? Will they really be putting up checkpoints between Ireland and Northern Ireland? And if they do, do you think that would be enough to cause issues between them?

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What a shower.

 One consistent in life is that no matter how low they set the bar, politicians will always surprise you by managing to push it even further down.

 Normally, as a last resort, the Queen can step in and dissolve parliament to force a new general election if a government/parliament is so broken that it can't function anymore.....politicians removed that safeguard in 2010 :rotfl:

  

  

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17 hours ago, MooseAMuffin said:

Im from the US but I was watching a documentary that a guy named Paddy Kielty did called 'My Dad, The Peace Deal and Me'. It was mostly about The Troubles in Ireland but mentioned how big of an impact Brexit could have on the peace.

Is anything being done to prevent the disruption of peace if this goes through? Will they really be putting up checkpoints between Ireland and Northern Ireland? And if they do, do you think that would be enough to cause issues between them?

The thing is, checkpoints i.e. a hard border, explicitly goes against the terms of the Good Friday Peace Agreement. I guess Tony Blair never saw Brexit coming.

Aside from that, where there is a hard border, there are men in uniform (whichever uniform) manning customs posts, north and south.

Where you have that, in that part of the world, there will be bloody minded people taking potshots at them.

Then there are more security cameras, more razor wire and very soon British and Irish army at the border in armoured cars and we're back to 1972.

Regardless of all that, customs borders attract smuggling, every customs border everywhere.

However at the Northern Irish border, the IRA traditionally controlled much of the smuggling, along with the people trafficking, drugs, gambling, protection rackets etc. It gives the IRA a new job opportunity. And when the IRA start up again there will be counter militant groups from "the other side" rising up to meet the challenge. And we're back to 1972 again.

I really don't think many people in Britain knew or cared much about how damaging to peace in that part of the world a hard border would be. I can't remember it being an issue at all during the debate before the referendum. I think that is still the case for most British people, but I suppose all politics is local, as they say.

Either way, we are where we are now, which is God knows where.

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14 minutes ago, Ryan said:

The thing is, checkpoints i.e. a hard border, explicitly goes against the terms of the Good Friday Peace Agreement. I guess Tony Blair never saw Brexit coming.

Aside from that, where there is a hard border, there are men in uniform (whichever uniform) manning customs posts, north and south.

Where you have that, in that part of the world, there will be bloody minded people taking potshots at them.

Then there are more security cameras, more razor wire and very soon British and Irish army at the border in armoured cars and we're back to 1972.

Regardless of all that, customs borders attract smuggling, every customs border everywhere.

However at the Northern Irish border, the IRA traditionally controlled much of the smuggling, along with the people trafficking, drugs, gambling, protection rackets etc. It gives the IRA a new job opportunity. And when the IRA start up again there will be counter militant groups from "the other side" rising up to meet the challenge. And we're back to 1972 again.

I really don't think many people in Britain knew or cared much about how damaging to peace in that part of the world a hard border would be. I can't remember it being an issue at all during the debate before the referendum. I think that is still the case for most British people, but I suppose all politics is local, as they say.

Either way, we are where we are now, which is God knows where.

All Brexit talk in the US is about the economy, trade, recession, etc. and there is never talk of the fact that its possible peace could be broken and violence could escalate so quickly. So it shocked me when I first heard about it.

Seems to me like they won't have enough time to create a plan or agreement that would keep the peace and/or are not giving it much thought. Hope they can figure something out.

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This whole thing on Brexit still really confuses the hell out of me. It is completely useless.

Reading so many insights on this, whilst educational, I find the more one reads on it, the more down the Rabbit hole I seem to fall and come to the conclusion "What the F**K!?"

Happy Friday. ;) 

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22 minutes ago, MIKA27 said:

This whole thing on Brexit still really confuses the hell out of me. It is completely useless.

Reading so many insights on this, whilst educational, I find the more one reads on it, the more down the Rabbit hole I seem to fall and come to the conclusion "What the F**K!?"

Happy Friday. ;) 

Think of the UK as a kid throwing a tanty because he thinks he's being bullied, taking his ball and leaving, but has forgotten where the exit is and if his mum is coming to pick him up or not. :P

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9 hours ago, Ryan said:

The thing is, checkpoints i.e. a hard border, explicitly goes against the terms of the Good Friday Peace Agreement. I guess Tony Blair never saw Brexit coming.

Aside from that, where there is a hard border, there are men in uniform (whichever uniform) manning customs posts, north and south.

Where you have that, in that part of the world, there will be bloody minded people taking potshots at them.

Then there are more security cameras, more razor wire and very soon British and Irish army at the border in armoured cars and we're back to 1972.

Regardless of all that, customs borders attract smuggling, every customs border everywhere.

However at the Northern Irish border, the IRA traditionally controlled much of the smuggling, along with the people trafficking, drugs, gambling, protection rackets etc. It gives the IRA a new job opportunity. And when the IRA start up again there will be counter militant groups from "the other side" rising up to meet the challenge. And we're back to 1972 again.

I really don't think many people in Britain knew or cared much about how damaging to peace in that part of the world a hard border would be. I can't remember it being an issue at all during the debate before the referendum. I think that is still the case for most British people, but I suppose all politics is local, as they say.

Either way, we are where we are now, which is God knows where.

I was in NI only a couple of months ago.  The locals are scared spitless.  There have already been a couple of bombs, and an uptick in knee-cappings.  Drive through Belfast, and the Peace Walls with their heavy gates are still prominent.  The absolute last thing they want is a return to the bad old days -- both sides.

This is one issue where I feel the EU is not taking the risks seriously enough.  They seem to have forgotten the slaughter, the body counts.  And they have certainly forgotten that the terrorists did not limit their activities to Northern Ireland and the British mainland, that the IRA and INLA bombed and killed throughout Europe.  This makes it a EU problem, too, and it infuriates me that they do not acknowledge this.  

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On 2/17/2019 at 8:23 PM, Ken Gargett said:

i have no idea what on earth is going on with this. can someone please explain it to me.

In very simple terms, it’s to keep the EU weak and subjugated to the USA in every way.

On 2/17/2019 at 11:45 PM, nKostyan said:

The decision on Brexit was made by the elites, the rest was a competent manipulation of public opinion before the vote. It was foolish to call a referendum without understanding what the result would be. Do you still believe in fairy tales and Santa Claus?

Why did UK decide to leave the EU? The EU as well as China is an economic competitor for the USA and the pressure will increase. UK decided to switch to the orbit of the United States. Now the main task of the UK government - to minimize losses from Brexit. Domestic and foreign policy is formed around this goal. Also, UK is doing its best to prove its loyalty to the USA.

 

Precisely, it was the decision of the ruling class. The rest is a circus. 

I would however add that the USA is the continuation of the British Empire - the capital was moved west by the ruling class in the same way it was moved north from Venice to Amsterdam and London.

See Caroll Quigley’s “The Anglo-American Establishment” - available for free on his estate website: 

www.carrollquigley.net/books.htm

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Just now, Eddyski said:

 

In very simple terms, it’s to keep the EU weak and subjugated to the USA in every way.

granted i still think it an almighty mess and near unfathomable but with the greatest respect, i don't buy this.

the powers that be in britain decided to hold a referendum so that the british people could vote to leave the EU in order to keep the EU 'subjugated to the USA in every way'. am i missing something? of all the many theories and nonsense and explanations i've heard, this is in the 'makes no sense' basket. what brit headed along on vote day and had that as the reason for casting their vote? i'd be stunned if you needed the fingers from a single hand to count them. 

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I have a small political club at my work, where my colleagues and I discuss international politics. Yesterday we again discussed Brexit and Its development. We came to the conclusion that initially the UK was isolated in the European Union, which prevented further integration and the further construction of elements of a single state. Therefore, after Brexit, the EU will not be prevented from transforming into a single state. Adolf Hitler would be thrilled, it's like the fourth Reich, but without bloodshed.
As for the loss of business and other crying in the UK, it is of little concern to the ruling class. These are all business risks under capitalism. It was initially clear that a separate UK does not have a place in the European Union, business had to predict the risks, someone will receive damage, someone will work, so capitalism is arranged.

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52 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

granted i still think it an almighty mess and near unfathomable but with the greatest respect, i don't buy this.

the powers that be in britain decided to hold a referendum so that the british people could vote to leave the EU in order to keep the EU 'subjugated to the USA in every way'. am i missing something? of all the many theories and nonsense and explanations i've heard, this is in the 'makes no sense' basket. what brit headed along on vote day and had that as the reason for casting their vote? i'd be stunned if you needed the fingers from a single hand to count them. 

I understand the confusion and I didn’t phrase it the best way to make it any easier but as I wrote: in very simple terms.

The ruling class of Britain doesn’t want the UK out of the EU. The people who voted to leave the EU, obviously, do. Why? Because they are fed up of the immense injustice. Brexit isn’t different than the recent referendum in Italy (to change the constitution to favor the ruling class) and even Trump’s election: people want change. 

To a greater extend, Brexit can also be seen as a trigger for the upcoming financial deluge - which will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Italian and German banks are on the verge of collapse. The trans-Atlantic City of London - Wall Street market sits on $300 trillion worth of garbage derivatives. The real estate market in London isn’t is a better shape either. Etc.

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18 minutes ago, Ryan said:

That's maybe a little unfair. The exit deal was negotiated, tortuously, over 18 months and agreed by all sides. The UK government agreed to it. The other 27 EU nations signed it within one day.

Part of that deal, negotiated over 18 months (I'll say it again) was "The Backstop", that both sides (UK and EU) agree there can never be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The British Parliament, media and most people seem to have forgotten that "The Backstop" was the idea of the UK government, to come into play in the event of the failure to negotiate a sufficient trade deal. Trade deals can only be negotiated after the exit deal has been agreed. That has never been off the table, that was always the case and agreed by both sides, a part of the treaty signed by both sides, no matter what the media say.

Now the UK parliament are trying to give the impression that the EU is "holding the UK over a barrel" due to unwillingness to renegotiate the backstop.

The EU has always (thus far) held fast on this. That there can not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The EU has not forgotten the slaughter or the body counts. 

Think of where the EU came from. Its predecessor, the EEC, came from a trade deal between France and Germany, concrete for iron, with the explicit purpose that countries that trade freely are less likely to go to war.

In the first half of the 20th century, wars started in Western Europe that led to the deaths of 100 million people. In the second half of the 20th century, no EEC (followed by the EU) member has ever gone to war with another. Notwithstanding some disgraceful letdowns in non-EU countries in the Balkans in the 1990s, literally the EU has been the most successful peace treaty in history.

The EU has not forgotten the slaughter. In fact one of the reasons I think Brexit happened (won in the referendum) is that old people vote more than young people and in this referendum, for the first time, there were old people voting in the UK, a majority of whom had no recollection of the Second World War.

An excellent post highlighting simply and clearly an aspect of this issue that is often ignored or overlooked. Thanks

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26 minutes ago, Ryan said:

The EU has not forgotten the slaughter or the body counts. 

Think of where the EU came from. Its predecessor, the EEC, came from a trade deal between France and Germany, concrete for iron, with the explicit purpose that countries that trade freely are less likely to go to war.

This. Between NI and the Republic it is becoming very obvious, still today. But, what seems to be having gotten completely out of view, the project "EU" has been - first and foremost (and always to me) - a peace project. And a mighty successful one.

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