The future of electric vs gas powered vehicles


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This is an offshoot of the Harley Davidson thread concerning electric vehicles. 

IMO, electric vehicles are the way of the future, but not because of environmental issues  I think it will be a better technology for transportation given where I envision the direction of transportation going  

Technology will continue to improve. Battery technology and operating time between recharging will continue to increase. Electric motors require less maintenance and have a longer useful life than internal combustion engines. At some point in time I think that most people won’t own cars. They will call up an autonomous car on an app to get where they want to go. Since a vehicle won’t have to have a home base, long trips might involve multiple vehicles. The result could be a drastic drop in the number of vehicles manufactured, since most cars will not be sitting idle most of the time and their useful life will increase perhaps 2-3 times that of a gas vehicle  

i think this evolution is coming and it will be here sooner than anyone imagines, perhaps less than 10 years.

what do you think?

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I look forward to pulling this thread in 10 years time 

The rest of the world doesn't care 

Hmmm ... downsides. 1. Electricity and electric vehicles will get a whole lot more expensive in future.  The Australian government alone will lose $2.3 billion in fuel tax revenue every year if L

I think it will happen relatively quickly around the world, bar maybe the US. 

Govt policies in the UK/EU/China and likely Oz are all aimed at seeing the end of the combustion engine for regular transport. 

Downside?  I can't see many (any). 

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I am all for electric vehicles, not ideal for long distance travel , but for 99% of my usage, just perfect. Really looking forward to the technology improving enough to see it go mainstream. 

Although I don't think that fully autonomous cars will be mainstream in a 10 year horizon. Let alone autonomous car for hire services for the masses. It's basically a taxi with no driver, great service but would not fit most people's needs.

*Edit: Thinking about this more and for people in cities, and that's a lot of people, this would make a lot of sense.

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Electric cars are the future, the technology will come that it will have pretty much no downsides and just better all around then combustion engines cars. but not YET!

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32 minutes ago, Shelby07 said:

This is an offshoot of the Harley Davidson thread concerning electric vehicles. 

IMO, electric vehicles are the way of the future, but not because of environmental issues  I think it will be a better technology for transportation given where I envision the direction of transportation going  

Technology will continue to improve. Battery technology and operating time between recharging will continue to increase. Electric motors require less maintenance and have a longer useful life than internal combustion engines. At some point in time I think that most people won’t own cars. They will call up an autonomous car on an app to get where they want to go. Since a vehicle won’t have to have a home base, long trips might involve multiple vehicles. The result could be a drastic drop in the number of vehicles manufactured, since most cars will not be sitting idle most of the time and their useful life will increase perhaps 2-3 times that of a gas vehicle  

i think this evolution is coming and it will be here sooner than anyone imagines, perhaps less than 10 years.

what do you think?

Let me know how well an electric motor and battery will work in a 6-7K pound one of these? Uh, nope. This is what the average family is buying with all of our "dirt cheap" gasoline.

ford.jpg

chevy.jpg

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20 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I think it will happen relatively quickly around the world, bar maybe the US. 

Govt policies in the UK/EU/China and likely Oz are all aimed at seeing the end of the combustion engine for regular transport. 

Downside?  I can't see many (any). 

Hmmm ... downsides.

1. Electricity and electric vehicles will get a whole lot more expensive in future.  The Australian government alone will lose $2.3 billion in fuel tax revenue every year if Labor's ambitious targets are being met.

2. At some point, consumers and environmental activists will wake up to the reality of the inevitable trade-off.  No more hydrocarbons being combusted may be a major goal, but it comes at the cost of massive environmental damage caused by vastly increased demand for lithium, nickel and cobalt.  Mining those minerals and metals -- essential for the batteries -- is a thoroughly filthy business.

3. Power generation is an issue that will have to be faced.  All these new electric vehicles will require huge amounts of electricity, and bar a few lucky small countries (Norway, Iceland etc) nobody has that much spare capacity.  This means lots of new power stations, which is politically tricky in many countries.

4. Pollution: according to a German report out this week, there is another major trade-off.  While EVs produce no pollution per se, they do generate much more fine particulate matter because they are harder on brakes and tyres -- and it is this, rather than nitrogen oxides or ozone, which cases asthma and other diseases in humans.  

5. Infrastructure: millions of EVs on the roads will mean having to invest in a huge network of charging stations covering the country.  This will cost tens if not hundreds of billions.  Who will pay for that?

6. This is purely subjective, of course, but EVs simply do not hold the same visceral appeal for me.  Where is the feeling, the vibration of all those explosions in the cylinders?  Where is the glorious sound of hydrocarbons being turned into noise when I put down the pedal?  What happens to my ability to pop the bonnet ("hood" in leftpondian parlance) and tinker with the engine?  

 

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3 minutes ago, gweilgi said:

Hmmm ... downsides.

1. Electricity and electric vehicles will get a whole lot more expensive in future.  The Australian government alone will lose $2.3 billion in fuel tax revenue every year if Labor's ambitious targets are being met.

2. At some point, consumers and environmental activists will wake up to the reality of the inevitable trade-off.  No more hydrocarbons being combusted may be a major goal, but it comes at the cost of massive environmental damage caused by vastly increased demand for lithium, nickel and cobalt.  Mining those minerals and metals -- essential for the batteries -- is a thoroughly filthy business.

3. Power generation is an issue that will have to be faced.  All these new electric vehicles will require huge amounts of electricity, and bar a few lucky small countries (Norway, Iceland etc) nobody has that much spare capacity.  This means lots of new power stations, which is politically tricky in many countries.

4. Pollution: according to a German report out this week, there is another major trade-off.  While EVs produce no pollution per se, they do generate much more fine particulate matter because they are harder on brakes and tyres -- and it is this, rather than nitrogen oxides or ozone, which cases asthma and other diseases in humans.  

5. Infrastructure: millions of EVs on the roads will mean having to invest in a huge network of charging stations covering the country.  This will cost tens if not hundreds of billions.  Who will pay for that?

6. This is purely subjective, of course, but EVs simply do not hold the same visceral appeal for me.  Where is the feeling, the vibration of all those explosions in the cylinders?  Where is the glorious sound of hydrocarbons being turned into noise when I put down the pedal?  What happens to my ability to pop the bonnet ("hood" in leftpondian parlance) and tinker with the engine?  

 

I don't believe there is one of those issues raised (all relevant ones) that can't be overcome through  intelligent thought (taxation) and advancements in technology (points 2-5). 

6. you can't be helped with :D

Now that almost every car maker has specialist EV development units, stand back and watch. 

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well in usa the public has grown to accept and even love thier auto.  it has gotten to the point that rail, boat and flying

has suffered at the hands of the auto market.  problem now in the states especially in the older cities, northeast New York, west coast and

middle of the country, Chicago, Michigan..the bridges are failing and the roads are in piss poor shape.  These cities are almost broke

and they do not have the cash to fix the infurstructer that is under thier control.  For work I drive a Honda that is called "Green Technology"

it has a electric motor and a gas motor.  The el motor is powered by a 200 volt ion battery, while the gas motor is a 4 cylinder normal aspirated

engine.  When the auto is moving the gas motor charges the ion battery.  Not a bad setup.  At least I do not need a charging station.

And until the states gets enough of those (charging stations) 100% el auto will have a hard time making inroads into the auto market.

If the eletric car makers make it easy to charge your el auto at home then you have a real challenge.

note.  gasoline for cars in the states is very cheap now.  some towns and cities $2.40 to $2.80  gallon!

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55 minutes ago, Phillys said:

I am all for electric vehicles, not ideal for long distance travel , but for 99% of my usage, just perfect. Really looking forward to the technology improving enough to see it go mainstream. 

Although I don't think that autonomous cars will be mainstream in a 10 year horizon. Let alone autonomous car for hire services for the masses. It's basically a taxi with no driver, great service but would not fit most people's needs. 

I don’t know. I think given the growing popularity of ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft along with the declining interest in younger people to even obtain a driver license I can see autonomous ride services becoming fairly mainstream. The technology will catch up  

As for long distance travel, we already have electric vehicles with a 300+ mile range. As you said, 99% of our trips are well below that. And if autonomous vehicles become mainstream, longer trips will just require switching vehicles at a rest stop  

I’ve been a gear head since I was a kid, but I just don’t see the same interest or enthusiasm for cars in the younger kids today. I see attitudes changing, even in the US. The only difference is that we will be passengers rather than drivers, and it seems that will be quite normal for a lot of the younger generation. 

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1 hour ago, NYgarman said:

Let me know how well an electric motor and battery will work in a 6-7K pound one of these? Uh, nope. This is what the average family is buying with all of our "dirt cheap" gasoline.

ford.jpg

chevy.jpg

Ford is slated to introduce a hybrid F-150 in 2020 and I don’t think a fully electric pickup will be far behind. As for power, we already have electric semi trucks with 500 mile ranges and 80,000 pound pulling capacity at highway speeds. I think technology will advance at a much quicker pace than anyone expects. 

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In California (USA), a bill was passed not long ago that mandates that by the year 2030 (only 11 years away) all NEW vehicles sold in the state will have to be non fossil fueled vehicles (electric).  Now there are 35 million people living in California,  what's going to happen at 6:00 PM everyday when they all get home from work and plug in their cars to charge up? The infrastructure is a long way off from being ready for that.

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I can't speak to this outside the US but in the US the vast majority of "clean electric vehicles" are being charged with electricity made from burning coal oil or gas.  Granted some wind and nuclear power but wind is government subsidized and not sustainable without that from a cost respective and in my option the best solution of more nuclear power generation is unpopular due to a lack of education.

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Let me know how well an electric motor and battery will work in a 6-7K pound one of these? Uh, nope. This is what the average family is buying with all of our "dirt cheap" gasoline. ford.jpg.178058e8505330421906dd680b5e5984.jpg

chevy.jpg.c6e13d5fe97b0a333dd70154079ea83e.jpg

 

Already here. The Rivian pickup truck is 800 horsepower. There's a 200 hp motor at each wheel. MSRP $61,500. Towing capability of 11,000lbs. 400 mile range. Some are already on the road. Also the Bollinger SUV is taking orders for 2020 delivery.851dd89c7e59fa68925d8f167b7b65b1.jpgba7ecb2c2e71949285ccf8860b465c8e.jpg

 

 

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Personally I think the long-term viability of EVs is very limited. I worked in the car manufacturing and distribution business, and I learned a lot about how the auto manufacturers think about the future. I am in the camp that thinks EVs are a stop gap for the moment, rather than an end goal. I believe electricity as a power source for cars just won't make the grade. It won't happen overnight, but an alternative power, such as hydrogen or some other renewable source of energy, will eventually become more economically viable, and will provide more power, distance, durability and most importantly; liberty.

Autonomous vehicles will get better especially when V2V and V2E communication catches on, and then vehicle sharing will become more viable also. 

Ultimately, I think there will be another major revolutionary breakthrough in automobiles, and probably within our lifetime. Cars today are inherently inefficient, in large part because it takes a lot of power to move such heavy objects. But at some point a new technology like maglev (such as the high speed trains) will actually change our roadways, and levitating vehicles (no, not flying vehicles) will become a reality. Levitating cars, riding just a couple of millimeters above the mag surface, will eliminate rolling resistance and friction, they will require less maintenance, and will virtually be non-polluting. 

I hope I'm around to see and experience these advancements.

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As I said in the other thread - EV is absolutely mainstream in my home state of California. Like it or not, this is well under way.

That’s why I bought a V8 Mercedes while they still make them :innocent:

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One more thought on ride sharing services...

Conceptually the way that car companies think about ride sharing is slightly different. They believe people will still buy their own cars, but once cars are autonomous they will serve double duty. In the morning the car will get you to work, but instead of parking the car in the garage the car will just go off on its own to take your kids to school, get your wife to the grocery store, etc. For those owners that don't have a full schedule for their cars, they can lend their cars to Uber or Lyft when they are not in use, so when you're at work or sleeping, Uber will take over and go earn some money for you, and then return in time for your next scheduled ride time.

In some respects I guess you can think of it as shared or subsidized ownership. But the car companies still believe every family will still want at least one family car under their control.  

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2 hours ago, wineguy said:

I can't speak to this outside the US but in the US the vast majority of "clean electric vehicles" are being charged with electricity made from burning coal oil or gas.  Granted some wind and nuclear power but wind is government subsidized and not sustainable without that from a cost respective and in my option the best solution of more nuclear power generation is unpopular due to a lack of education.

I saw a Scientific American article a ways back that analyzed this and you are correct that generation mix matters.  At that the time of publication (I think 15 years ago?) using the U.S. as a guide the analysis said that generation mix in the U.S. made an all electric vehicle about as clean as a hybrid.  Gas and diesel vehicles were very far behind.  It's likely that this situation has only improved for the electrics and hybrids as they've gotten better, and as U.S. generation capacity has cleaned up (not just the addition of renewables but even the cleaning up of fossil plants; scrubbers on coal, etc.).  And of course think of how clean electricity is in places like Germany with a major commitment to renewables.

I will miss my internal combustion engines as hobby toys though.  I grew up overhauling and modifying and dearly love it,  From a reliability and operational point of view though, electric is much better, and man o man the acceleration! :o   Married with autonomous driving (which I agree is further away than pundits predict) and you can imagine a future with all electric, self driving someday.  It would be interesting to compare the economics of that with rail, and see if some rail intensive countries might be able to replace those networks with cheaper (?) road and robots? ?

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9 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

Those things are ugly as a mother f*******. I wouldn't be caught dead in one. And there isn't one person here that doesn't care nothing about what their vehicles look like, I refuse to believe that.

I may be really old school, but I'll keep my gas guzzling V8 or straight line V8 diesel until they show me something that is priced at the SAME level, with the SAME range, with the SAME amount of horse power AND torque for towing. Currently, no electric vehicle even comes close. AND it takes FOREVER to charge the dad gum things. I can gas up my truck in 5 minutes AND be back on the road, electrics can't even come close. 

AND your pricing is WAY OFF. 

"At $69,000 before incentives for the base model....." Incentives, I don't want my vehicle to be incentivized (read subsidized) by the government (e.g., paid for by someone else's tax dollars). I'll pay for my own vehicle in cash. Even Rivian mentions the $69,000 BEFORE Federal Govt rebates.....No thank you! I don't want any "help" from the government, I'll make my own way.

https://electrek.co/2018/11/29/rivian-r1t-electric-pickup-truck-order/ the article I pulled the number from. As far as any on the road, haven't seen any yet. Oh, it's also on their website too: https://products.rivian.com/

That abomination may be something electric fanboys jump on, have at it. I'll take my Silverado any day of the week. My Silverado didn't have a BASE model price of $69,000. 

Amen. You and I are on the same train of thought! V8 power for life!

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1 minute ago, FatherOfPugs said:

And clearly we don't care what y'all think!

Says the man with a his sign off from Winston Churchill.Ha!....      Just pulling your leg. 

Theoretical question.  If you abstained from future green technologies for the next 10yrs,  and the progress reached a point where the cars were, as big as you wanted them to be, faster than Petrol cars, had a great sound, made in America etc etc  would you still be dis-interested with them, on the basis of concept alone.   I.e are you more pro fossil fuels, than you are pro-performance?

I'm not having a go at you, I'm genuinely interested.   My Grandad worked in North Wales in the slate quarries, (a brutal job, with lots of pride attached)  and when they closed them down, I think one of the jobs they offered the men who had been laid off, was working in a factory that made plastic toilet roll holders. It was a disgrace.      My point is.  Is if green technologies were almost offered over to the men and women of historically pro-fossil fuel states to run and evolve,  would people like yourself get behind it?. 

 

  

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