The future of electric vs gas powered vehicles

[wineguy]

8 minutes ago, FatherOfPugs said:

I'm pro-performance. If the green technologies could give me what I want (the same performance standards) for the same price as a fossil fuel vehicle, I am open to buying them.  At present, they can't. 

A Tesla or Nissan or Chevy electric car would make sense for my wife, commuting to and from work, and she doesn't give a rats rip about what a car can do, they're just not her thing. If it gets her from point A to point B, she is happy. And we are actually looking into one for her. Because it would make sense for her. Also keep in mind most of the electricity produced in the USA is from fossil fuels, so there is that......  

I want the performance aspect. For me, right now, the electric truck just can't compete. The price starts at twice what I would pay for the equivalent gasoline internal combustion engine version.

The wife and I are looking into the new Tesla roof for our house. It offers the ability to get off the grid which I am for. A traditional shingle roof would cost me about $20,000 (for lifetime shingles i.e., 30 year warranty). A Tesla roof with battery installation would cost about $50,000. Yes, it's $30,000 more, but I get off the grid each month (a monthly savings, and I get to sell energy back to the electric company). I would break even in about 10 years, and after  that I am making money on the roof, provided they become widely available soon. Currently, they are not in my area. 

I'm not against the concept of moving to these technologies (I'm not that much of stick in the mud) but I also don't want to be forced to move to something that is going to cost me more and not have the performance, just for the sake of "save the planet." I also don't want the government to give me any handouts to move to these technologies. Let the market and folk's pockets dictate what will happen. 

I would agree with you on all of the above, the performance and technology will improve and I am all for it.  I don't think we are likely to see a near future increase in the price of gas given how much further exploration can be done in the US.  Particularly off the coast of Alaska. The BMW i8 is very efficient and very high performance and also very expensive but as these technologies grow they will certainly be scalable.  Hybrid is likely the near term solution.  Of course this is only IMHO.... 

[99call]

8 minutes ago, FatherOfPugs said:

I'm pro-performance. If the green technologies could give me what I want (the same performance standards) for the same price as a fossil fuel vehicle, I am open to buying them.  At present, they can't. 

A Tesla or Nissan or Chevy electric car would make sense for my wife, commuting to and from work, and she doesn't give a rats rip about what a car can do, they're just not her thing. If it gets her from point A to point B, she is happy. And we are actually looking into one for her. Because it would make sense for her. Also keep in mind most of the electricity produced in the USA is from fossil fuels, so there is that......  

I want the performance aspect. For me, right now, the electric truck just can't compete. The price starts at twice what I would pay for the equivalent gasoline internal combustion engine version.

The wife and I are looking into the new Tesla roof for our house. It offers the ability to get off the grid which I am for. A traditional shingle roof would cost me about $20,000 (for lifetime shingles i.e., 30 year warranty). A Tesla roof with battery installation would cost about $50,000. Yes, it's $30,000 more, but I get off the grid each month (a monthly savings, and I get to sell energy back to the electric company). I would break even in about 10 years, and after  that I am making money on the roof, provided they become widely available soon. Currently, they are not in my area. 

I'm not against the concept of moving to these technologies (I'm not that much of stick in the mud) but I also don't want to be forced to move to something that is going to cost me more and not have the performance, just for the sake of "save the planet." I also don't want the government to give me any handouts to move to these technologies. Let the market and folk's pockets dictate what will happen. 

Good on you, the roof sounds great. 

I agree with you.  Largely a problem with green technologies, is the people that have previously been trying to sell/advertise them, have been doing so with preachy guilt.    Like any product, they have to be on the right price point, they have to be sexy/well made.

The only difference I have from you, is the sense of urgency. I do believe were are effectively behind schedule in emissions control etc.  But thats bye the bye

Hats off to you Sir.    Enjoy being off the grid   sounds great

[helix]

Will probably take the perfection of Hydrogen fuel cell to make the electric vehicle mainstream  , plug in charging off the grid may not do it. Simply using fuel infrastructure in place to distribute hydrogen may be the future of EV's.

[Phillys]

In Quebec (Canada) electricity is generated by hydro and is really inexpensive. I am thinking about having some charger stations installed at the factory we are building as we use a LOT of electricity and the power lines coming will more than handle the extra (very small) load from charging cars. I have also been thinking about electric vehicles for a while now, but none fit my needs/budget at the moment (plus I just leased a vehicle). Maybe on the next lease if there are more models offered.

As for ride sharing services, I think they will be a huge success in large urban centers once the technology allows for safe use. On sharing my own car, I don't even let my kids eat in the car and keep a tight ship, no way I would let strangers in my car without supervision... 

[Hammer Smokin']

storage of electricity is becoming more efficient. There is lots of dollars being invested in alternate forms of energy storage that do not include lithium.

one of the biggest factors in EV success will be the owners ability to generate, store, then utilize the electricity required to operate their vehicle.

buying your electricity from the grid is one thing, and subject to local distribution grid costs, but the ability to harvest your own energy, and utilize it for only the cost of equipment will be game changer.

and that time is not far off.

 

[bpm32]

4 hours ago, 99call said:

Says the man with a his sign off from Winston Churchill.Ha!....      Just pulling your leg.   

Ah yes, the great Half-American statesman, Winston Churchill. The craziness is disproportionately passed on from the mother’s side you know.

[dominattorney]

17 hours ago, Shelby07 said:

I don’t know. I think given the growing popularity of ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft along with the declining interest in younger people to even obtain a driver license I can see autonomous ride services becoming fairly mainstream. The technology will catch up  

As for long distance travel, we already have electric vehicles with a 300+ mile range. As you said, 99% of our trips are well below that. And if autonomous vehicles become mainstream, longer trips will just require switching vehicles at a rest stop  

I’ve been a gear head since I was a kid, but I just don’t see the same interest or enthusiasm for cars in the younger kids today. I see attitudes changing, even in the US. The only difference is that we will be passengers rather than drivers, and it seems that will be quite normal for a lot of the younger generation. 

This is likely going to occur in the cities. People forget that most of the states is pretty sprawled out though. Uber is not a tenable ride replacement service doe many individuals. I pay 460 a month for a car payment and roughly 150 a month for gas plus 80 to insure it. Ubering to work and to court every day would cost me over a grand. 

[99call]

1 hour ago, bpm32 said:

Half-American

I wasn't aware this was permitted. HA!

[Hookmaker]

I bought my first Tesla model S 5 years ago, and currently drive a P85D. I’m happy and I’ll never go back. It’s a fantastic vehicle. I’ve never been interested in horsepower but I am now. Because I’m always in pole position ?

I drive 30 k miles a year and I’m having a blast every mile.

I’m the fastest accelerator out there. I’ve done numerous track days and drag strips. Always on top. No V8 sound could overshine the feeling of being first across the line. Ever. The only vehicle that ever beat me was True Cousins electric dragster, but hell they do 0-60 in 1,38 sec.

It ALWAYS starts. It’s always nice and warm in winter. 

I do 95% of my driving on autopilot. Totally no stress 60 mile commute every morning. Emails, texts whatever (it’s illegal I know, but I don’t give a damn)

I do 5000 mile trips all over Europe, UK, Italy, north of Norway, you name it - I’ve been there. For free. Tesla supercharger network. 0 cent vacation driving. Hell, a 1000 mile trip takes me 3 hours longer due to charge stops, but now I arrive refreshed and happy, where I used to sleep 24 hours after a long and stressful drive. 

I have a flat rate monthly charging scheme at home. 100 usd/month and all the power I can use. ALL windpower generated. This makes me feel good. My days of supporting Arab, US, Venezuelan, or even my own country Denmark’s slimy black oil are over. Let the others have it.

i don’t need towing power, if I do, I’ll hire someone to tow for me.

After 100K miles my maintenance costs are: ZERO! My neighbor owns a Maserati - same price range. He pays 6000 USD a year in petty  maintenance plans + the stuff that needs to be replaced. I laugh at him. His next car will be a ? Yeah you guessed it. 

Hell, I’m still laughing. And I’m laughing at the world that still doesn’t believe that the revolution is here and it’s here to stay.?

 

 

[Shelby07]

2 hours ago, dominattorney said:

This is likely going to occur in the cities. People forget that most of the states is pretty sprawled out though. Uber is not a tenable ride replacement service doe many individuals. I pay 460 a month for a car payment and roughly 150 a month for gas plus 80 to insure it. Ubering to work and to court every day would cost me over a grand. 

Indeed... as of today. But I’m talking of the future that, in my opinion, will happen sooner than most people think. I can see a time where, because of advances in technology, prices of hiring a ride will go down significantly when Uber, Lyft and other ride companies use self driving cars. And because there will be no drivers to require a home base, ride companies will be able to have cars just about everywhere. I think there will come a point where the cost of owning for many will be significantly higher than the cost of calling up a car. 

Another factor is the changing attitudes and priorities of younger people. Today’s younger buyers are more concerned with technology than performance because they just aren’t that enamored with driving. More and more kids that I know are just not excited about getting their driver license. And more and more tech companies are finding benefits in having their employees work remotely. It’s a rapidly changing demographic.

Of course, there will always be privately owned vehicles, but even if ride sharing only becomes popular in cities, the percentage of those owning vehicles will drop significantly.

[Shelby07]

And since I’m in full imagine mode, I can see lots of garages being turned into additional living space (smoking room? ?) and existing parking lots in cities becoming available to build on. 

[Hammer Smokin']

27 minutes ago, Hookmaker said:

I bought my first Tesla model S 5 years ago, and currently drive a P85D. I’m happy and I’ll never go back. It’s a fantastic vehicle. I’ve never been interested in horsepower but I am now. Because I’m always in pole position ?

I drive 30 k miles a year and I’m having a blast every mile.

I’m the fastest accelerator out there. I’ve done numerous track days and drag strips. Always on top. No V8 sound could overshine the feeling of being first across the line. Ever. The only vehicle that ever beat me was True Cousins electric dragster, but hell they do 0-60 in 1,38 sec.

It ALWAYS starts. It’s always nice and warm in winter. 

I do 95% of my driving on autopilot. Totally no stress 60 mile commute every morning. Emails, texts whatever (it’s illegal I know, but I don’t give a damn)

I do 5000 mile trips all over Europe, UK, Italy, north of Norway, you name it - I’ve been there. For free. Tesla supercharger network. 0 cent vacation driving. Hell, a 1000 mile trip takes me 3 hours longer due to charge stops, but now I arrive refreshed and happy, where I used to sleep 24 hours after a long and stressful drive. 

I have a flat rate monthly charging scheme at home. 100 usd/month and all the power I can use. ALL windmill generated. This makes me feel good. My days of supporting Arab, US, Venezuelan, or even my own country Denmark’s slimy black oil are over. Let the others have it.

i don’t need towing power, if I do, I’ll hire someone to tow for me.

After 100K miles my maintenance costs are: ZERO! My neighbor owns a Maserati - same price range. He pays 6000 USD a year in petty  maintenance plans + the stuff that needs to be replaced. I laugh at him. His next car will be a ? Yeah you guessed it. 

Hell, I’m still laughing. And I’m laughing at the world that still doesn’t believe that the revolution is here and it’s here to stay.?

 

 

great post.

 

But a pet peeve of mine is calling wind turbines windmills. Windmills mill grain. Wind Turbines generate power

[zathan]

Word around the campfire is that Dr. Emmett Brown is working on refarming the energy released by the combustion of a single cigar to fully recharge a car battery. Or a 88 mph round trip.

[bpm32]

I am not a car guy and I for one welcome autonomous vehicles and electric cars because I’m unbelievably lazy. If I can just plug my self-driving pod into the outlet and not have to make a trip to the gas station, that’s fine with me.

There will be amazing unintended consequences however. We are trading the evil we know for the evil we don’t know. Pumping oil out of the ground subsidizes the modern world—I think most people would be shocked by what is made from petroleum products. It’s like everything that isn’t metal at this point. For the most part these are small fractions from oil refining, so it’s not like we can still get them without pumping out all that oil.

And I don’t for a second think electric vehicles will be better for the environment. The power isn’t being generated in the electric car or at the charging station. It’s like moving the slaughterhouse further away so I don’t have to see it.

[Shelby07]

48 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

great post.

 

But a pet peeve of mine is calling wind turbines windmills. Windmills mill grain. Wind Turbines generate power

They mill birds, don’t they? ?

[Ribeye]

I'll believe in EV's as soon as the first electric passenger jumbo jet takes off.

[gweilgi]

5 hours ago, dominattorney said:

This is likely going to occur in the cities. People forget that most of the states is pretty sprawled out though. Uber is not a tenable ride replacement service doe many individuals. I pay 460 a month for a car payment and roughly 150 a month for gas plus 80 to insure it. Ubering to work and to court every day would cost me over a grand. 

That's only half the calculation.  For the true cost of car ownership, we also have to factor in the cost of maintenance and servicing, and generally depreciation.  If I buy a new car tomorrow, the rate of depreciation is -- very generally speaking -- around 19%  in the first year, half of which occurs immediately after I take possession ... followed by a 15% drop in years two and three.  So that new $50,000 vehicle will be worth maybe $30,000 three years hence ... and those 20 grand alone could pay for a lot of Uber rides in those three years. 

[gweilgi]

9 minutes ago, Ribeye said:

I'll believe in EV's as soon as the first electric passenger jumbo jet takes off.

Nah .... as soon as the first electric passenger jumbo jet lands safely!  

[...]

Most people are not aware of how many billion dollars of monies paid by taxpayers are used every year to subsidize oil in North America...

[Hammer Smokin']

3 hours ago, Shelby07 said:

They mill birds, don’t they? ?

that is called natural selection - strengthening the gene pool.

if a bird flying in the sky can't keep away from a turbine blade, then they don't deserve to share the sky with the other smart birds

[helix]

I do not see charging lithium batteries from the grid is the future of EV's  in North America . To limiting for rural truck owners and anyone who does more than 250 KMs a day. Fill up with Hydrogen at any existing gas station( infrastructure in place) the hydrogen fuel cell ,which is a battery that exhausts water. Will be the adopted EV vehicle in North America . 2 cents.

[Hammer Smokin']

can a vehicle owner generate his own power to use in his vehicle with hydrogen?

[helix]

Most common element in the universe . Generate it ? Above my pay grade. 

[DandyJBez]

23 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

Those things are ugly as a mother f*******. I wouldn't be caught dead in one. And there isn't one person here that doesn't care nothing about what their vehicles look like, I refuse to believe that.

Well there's at least one person in here who doesn't lol. I would drive a bowling ball shaped car if it got me from point A to point B reliably, and was cheap. 

[Kitchen]

I look at EVs the same way I look at wind and solar electricity, a new fad that everyone is jumping onto that really is not practical in the long term.  Some countries may decided to force feed us EVs, along with wind and solar, but ultimately, after some suffering, we will abandon them and go with something more practical.  

As was pointed out before, one of the main disadvantages of EVs is that they require rare earth elements.  This requires a significant amount of mining, and mining has never been clean by any stretch.  The lack of cleanliness of mining is not going to change, and therefore, EVs may ultimately be worse for the environment then gas powered vehicles.  

The other great downside of EVs is that they need to be charged, and this does not happen in less than a minute (the amount of time it takes to fill up my gas tank).  I just dont see the average consumer ever putting up with this in the long run.  Maybe for a bit, but eventually everyone will be looking back to the good old times of just filling up your tank in a jiffy.  

Furthermore, EVs just don't provide the amount of power required for heavy work, like in construction.  Diesel engines will always be in need, perhaps run by natural oils instead of petroleum, and that will be in great competition with EVs.  Plus if we do find a way to harvest large amounts of natural oils for diesel engines to run on, considering the mining needed for EVs, diesels of the future would be much better for the environment.  

I read a while back that algae produces so much oil and grows essentially anywhere, that if we figured out how to effectively harvest the oils, we would be set with transportation fuel.