The future of electric vs gas powered vehicles

[Kitchen]

1 hour ago, Shelby07 said:

I think your estimate of the number of spare batteries that will be needed is much too high. Remember that only a small percentage of cars will be replacing batteries at a given time. Most will be recharged at homes or recharging stations. The only reason to replace the pack when you’re on the road is if someone is on a long trip and needs to refuel quickly. And even today the (Tesla) supercharging stations can provide about 180 mile range in about 30 minutes and that should be improved with newer technology. So I see battery replacement as a supplemental process, not an everyday one. 

I just don't see this being the case.  At first, yes, most people would charge at home.  However as more and more battery swap locations became available, there would be a greater likelihood of people thinking that they can just do a battery swap and not worry about charging.  

[Shelby07]

38 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

I just don't see this being the case.  At first, yes, most people would charge at home.  However as more and more battery swap locations became available, there would be a greater likelihood of people thinking that they can just do a battery swap and not worry about charging.  

Perhaps. But I suspect that it would be cheaper to charge at home than swapping out the battery pack. 

[Kitchen]

Good point.  

[...]

6 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

The same could be said for battery powered cars. https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/lithium-batteries-dirty-secret-manufacturing-them-leaves-massive-carbon

Look, there are going to be carbon emissions for quite some time, I don't see those going away anytime soon. Also, what are you going to do with all the batteries once they are considered dead and unusable? You can recycle them yes, but there are costs associated with that, and what consumers are going to be willing to pay those costs? 

My local Lowe's will allow free battery recycling, you just have to be willing to drive to it and drop them off (which I do when I go, a weekly adventure as a home owner). The larger car batteries, I don't see anyone offering free recycling on those, yet. 

Car parts stores will actually give you money for a dead car battery...

[...]

Double post

[Fuzz]

I'll want until Shipstone batteries are invented...

[JamesKPolkEsq]

 

Here's an in depth look at the relative cost to the environment for electric vs combustion cars.

[Kitchen]

25 minutes ago, JamesKPolkEsq said:

 

Here's an in depth look at the relative cost to the environment for electric vs combustion cars.

This is of course relative.  Compared to gasoline powered cars, absolutely.  Compared to hydrogen fuel cell cars or diesel cars that run solely on plant oils, probably not so true.  

And that is my point, their are more convenient options being worked on that are actually better for the environment.  When these options come to market, the euphoria of battery EVs will drop real fast.  

[gweilgi]

18 hours ago, Hookmaker said:

Battery swap is the future, it takes tesla less than 3 minutes, shorter time than to fill a 60 l tank. Find it on YouTube. However, this requires a certain mass of cars on the street to be a viable solution and we’re not there yet. 

So this, then, is a chicken and egg situation.

Battery swaps -- or indeed any form of alternative energy supply for vehicles -- require a critical mass before they can become a viable or even mainstream solution.  But until the infrastructure is in place to enable quick and affordable refuelling, it is doubtful whether this necessary critical mass will be achieved any time soon.  In other words, I (and, I suspect, most others) would not even consider a battery swap vehicle until I can be reasonably sure of having the necessary facilities within driving range of any expected trip I might be making, but until there are enough potential customers for such facilities, who would invest the astronomical sums to build such a network?  To say it with Kevin Costner: if you build it, they will come.  

[BellevilleMXZ]

Late to this , but anyway, some thoughts. In the wide open areas of Canada and the US, I certainly don't see them overtaking ICE cars, any time soon. Lets forget the big $$ stuff like the Tesla, but even the "cheaper" stuff like a Prius, is twice the price of a corolla(40 to 20K). These are cars the average guy drives. Then u have the high electricity costs here, never mind the stressed infrastructure. High or low temp days are already an issue, with high demand. Canada is way to spread out, unless u are close/in a big city. Now I could see a gas/electric hybrid maybe , but not straight electric. Don't forget the cost to add a 220v charger at home if you want reasonable charge times. 

I am also an Auto tech at a new car dealer, and am also hybrid certified. I don't think people understand the high cost of repairs. When these are out of warranty, these are major $$$ to fix. Yes the battery has a long warr. but the REST doesn't and is very complex and expensive to fix. I have seen some nightmare repairs on 4-5 yr old hybrids, used cars that people bought thinking is was going to be "cheap" driving. That's great for folks, like most on here, myself included that can afford newer cars. But what about the average folk? A  6 or 8 year old civic/corolla/minivan,, etc, is quite cheap to maintain. Price out repairs on a 150k mile hybrid....watch out. Never mind saying my Tesla has cost me zero, they cost 115k here to start if I remember right, hardly an average car. 

Personally the cost ratio has to get waaaay better before the AVERAGE car buyer/family can afford an electric car in North America, esp. when there are no incentives, as the 14k gov. one got dropped here in Ontario a while back. I'd hazard to say most of us on here are above average earners, at least any that are driving hybrid/electric vehicles. 

So will they increase? Sure....but only slightly. Right now we are only at about 8% in Canada I think as of 2018. I think its going to be a looooong time before we even hit 30%. I drive 150k round trip a day on a major highway, and see almost 0 hybrids, I mostly only see them in town. 

Now lastly , this is Canada/USA, which is quite similar. Any of you other folks around the world, that live in much more densely populated areas, I'm sure its a different story. For now I'll stick to my 400hp 3.0L turbocharged 6cyl. , and pay for gas. Its not as fast as a Tesla, but sounds waaaaay better!!

[Philc2001]

I drove a new Model 3 today. 

In the curb appeal department, the car is not very attractive, actually kind of ugly. But once you get over the blah looks, it really shines in a few areas. 

Acceleration is absolutely breathtaking, this thing has some serious torque, and I think it would pretty much leave just about any vehicle in its price range in the dust. Tesla state 0-60 in 3.2 seconds, and I think that feels about right. But more impressive, is the power delivery is instantaneous, smooth, linear, and very quiet. I was really impressed by it's 30-70, which is really very usable and super quick. 

Didn't get to really check handling, but It does feel a bit heavy and it seems to understeer, so I think it is par for the luxury sedan market.

Fit and finish is superb, what you would expect from a $50K automobile. No complaints. However, interior color choices are quite limited and not great either. The big screen is great, very high res, and super useful. The glass roof is really neat, you can see through, but the Florida sun does not seem to permeate through it. The sound system is also terrific, very rich. And the car has great noise isolation, and it runs very quite, so you can actually enjoy your music and let the car drive you to work without stress.

Autonomous driving is phenomenal. The car changes lanes by itself, accelerates and decelerates dynamically with traffic, even stops on its own. For congested driving it is absolutely a treat. Also, in beta testing the valet feature allows you to hail your parked Tesla to come meet you at the door and it will literally pull out from the parking space, navigate the parking lot, and meet you at the door - fantastic. 

Cost to charge the vehicle is reasonable. Apparently the off-peak cost per kilowatt hour here in Florida is $0.06, and $0.11 during peak. On regular charging, it takes several hours to go from empty to full, but only costs about 1/3 the cost of pump fuel. 

I am quite impressed with it, so much that I think I want one. For daily rush hour commuting, in metropolitan areas, with a range of over 300 miles, it's a great car.  

[Hammer Smokin']

and don't forget, you can generate, and store the power that can be used to charge the Tesla for free (aside from cost of equipment).

a benefit that currently no other vehicle can offer.

generation of your own "fuel".

[gweilgi]

1 hour ago, Philc2001 said:

 

 

Autonomous driving is phenomenal. The car changes lanes by itself, accelerates and decelerates dynamically with traffic, even stops on its own. For congested driving it is absolutely a treat. Also, in beta testing the valet feature allows you to hail your parked Tesla to come meet you at the door and it will literally pull out from the parking space, navigate the parking lot, and meet you at the door - fantastic. 

Having just survived a 4-hour trek up the M1 with all the aggro tradies, the suicidal P-platers, the holiday-makers who keep forgetting about the trailer hitched to their cars and above all the truck drivers who motor along as if they were all German tank drivers at El-Alamein in a  past life, all I can say is that autonomous driving scares the living daylights out of me....

 

 

[Hookmaker]

1 hour ago, gweilgi said:

Having just survived a 4-hour trek up the M1 with all the aggro tradies, the suicidal P-platers, the holiday-makers who keep forgetting about the trailer hitched to their cars and above all the truck drivers who motor along as if they were all German tank drivers at El-Alamein in a  past life, all I can say is that autonomous driving scares the living daylights out of me....

 

 

Well, it shouldn’t, and that’s exactly the situation where I’ve learned it’s most advantageous. 2 years with 150 mile a day commute in heavy rush hour traffic with 99% of the miles done on autopilot has made me a very relaxed driver and much more rested when arriving at job and at home. Sit back and relax while all the mongrels take the stress?

[Philc2001]

9 hours ago, Hookmaker said:

Well, it shouldn’t, and that’s exactly the situation where I’ve learned it’s most advantageous. 2 years with 150 mile a day commute in heavy rush hour traffic with 99% of the miles done on autopilot has made me a very relaxed driver and much more rested when arriving at job and at home. Sit back and relax while all the mongrels take the stress?

Precisely. The car literally just takes the stress out of traffic congestion. The car is immensely aware of everything around it, and it even shows you a graphic of every car in its vicinity. If you want to change lanes, you can just put the turn signal on and the car automatically finds an opening and performs the lane change on its own. In traffic you don't need to touch the accelerator or the brakes, it does all that. 

[LordAnubis]

I like electric. The shear torque and instant power. Can’t go wrong. I don’t think lithium has much legs. I think the future will be hydrogen cells powering electric drive vehicles. Give it 10 years.