Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?


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A reminder to play the ball and not the man. 

This is a moving feast where country data is coming through in real time and decisions (good and bad) are being made on that data.   Already what was being reported 10 days ago by world leaders is out of date.  

It would make sense to prepare for the worst, hope for the best and do the analysis when all this is done. 

 

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The impact of coronavirus where I am?   Hmm.  Where to begin.  Last weekend, when I left the hospital on Friday night, we had 9 cases in our ICU.  When I came in on Monday, the ICU was completely

Might be irreverent after I posted the currently existing horror scenarios back on page 1 and 2 of this thread on January 30th - ages ago in this fast developing news circle. So, to end my commen

I’m ready, come what may...  

6 minutes ago, FatherOfPugs said:

If you don't get the sheep reference, you never will, unfortunate. And YES, you and others ARE saying this is going to kill people, just in a "nice" way. But you do you. 

The list I posted is the damn truth. I lived through each of those. To me, this is the same damn media hysteria, only now, with the advent of social media being as big as it is, more and more people have megaphones, which is HIGHLY unfortunate. The only social media I have is Instagram, and I'm getting sick of it. 

It's blatantly obvious we see things VERY differently. 

But it does kill people? Saying otherwise is just lying. Even if it was just one single person. I've never said it's going to kill us all or even a dozen, but what I have done is written two posts where I explain that the problem is not the mortality rate but the share volume of people that can get sick and that we have a healthcare system that can't handle it. I can quote myself "If this would take on just a fraction of Italy's proportions our healthcare system would pretty much collaps."

I specifically said " No, this is not a ”kill us all” virus. We all know this.". I thought that with that line it would be pretty obvious that I meant "No, this is not a ”kill us all” virus" but I guess I was mistaken.

The other thing I said was that "this", as in this that is happening now, with countries and citiies under quarantine is a big thing in respons to you thinking that this is just media hype.

I don't follow this on social media, I read one of two big "evening" papers in the morning on my phone when I wake up just to check what have happend during the night and I check a rundown of facts in evening. It's a sheet of statistics basically.

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Australian Grand Prix on Sunday has been cancelled and the AFL season is rumoured to be delayed for 2 weeks. There's a lot of sad faces in the pubs in St Kilda where I live who were told of the GP news after lining up for 2 hours this morning to see qualifying.

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I’m with Ken and others here - entire countries shutting down and governments implementing travel bans are anything but media hype. In fact, those measures probably should have been taken earlier (in hindsight).

I still don’t get why people hoard toilet paper of all things, though.

You can send all the brussel sprouts to me - love that stuff ;)

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3 hours ago, Subcomandante said:

Had opening night tickets for Hamilton tonight in Hollywood, cancelled. 

We were planning to fly to Toronto next week to see Hamilton. I'm pretty sure they're going to cancel the production last minute, even though they say they're not going to. 

So we're cancelling our flight. 

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12 hours ago, KnightsAnole said:

skeptical of the media, it has become difficult to discern truth from fiction, or an agenda driven story.

Opinion of my ex Prof. Agenda driven story is right. 

Screenshot_20200313-095918.png

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Okay I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong about this whole corona virus thing. I thought it was like the common flu and it’ll blow over in a week or two. Possibly, it was stirred up by the media in preparation for the elections?? Well it’s far enough along that I’ll admit I was wrong (which I think the last time I’ve admitted I was wrong was around the Black Plague). 

Sorry to beat a dead horse. I know this is a forum for cigars, but Since this is a worldwide forum I’m curious as to the lengths some of you have gone to prep for this thing. My wife just asked if we should take $10k out of the bank and exchange it for gold. My buddies wife just got a huge fridge to put in the freezer for food. Costco has no toilet paper in the last week (and I refuse to buy single ply no matter how bad this thing gets. I’ll use my damn hand). 
 

last question is relevant but fun. If your collection had to last you for the rest of your life without purchasing another cigar at your current rate of smoking, how long would that last?  I have a good ten years stored. 
 

Stay frosty my friends 

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14 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

 

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If this graphic is correct and 13.8% of those infected are severe requiring hospitalization, and 4.7% will require an ICU. According to reported figures, I believe there are about 100k vacant hospital beds, and roughly 45k ICUs nationwide. Let's do the math then...

If only 1% of 330 million Americans get infected, that would be 3,300,000 (or 3.3 million) people. Well, 13.8% of 3.3 million is 455,400 people. So about 355k will be turned away.  

Again, going with just 1% infection rate, then 4.7% of 3.3 million would be 155,100 Critical Intensive care cases, so about 110,000 cases will just take a number and wait outside to die. 

I hope we can build some hospitals fast... like China did.

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2 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

with respect, you have massively exaggerated every single one of those instances you've listed. i don't recall ever hearing that about any of those situations you've listed as killing us all, or anything within cooee. (the mayan calendar, spare me). in other words, you've done exactly what you are accusing the media of doing. no secret that i am as scathing of the current media as anyone, but they are working with what they have here (no doubt, grubby elements are pushing things for clicks but i suspect that most of the more reputable outlets are trying to do better here).

you use germany as an example. in the very brief time since you post and now, they have recorded another 779 cases - in other words doubled the cases they had to date. they also doubled from three to six deaths. so no, they are not containing it. any wonder people are seriously concerned? 

in 1918, spanish flu killed more than  the entire WWI managed. figures are that 500 million were infected and between 20 and 50 million died. we are not immune from tragedies like this. medicine has certainly improved but the viruses have evolved as well and it is one hell of a lot easier for such things to move around the globe these days. 

i have not seen even the most extreme media suggesting anything like we are all going to die. very easy to make such suggestions and then try and seem reasonable by scaling back. but that is the house of cards argument. 

at the moment, no one really knows how bad this will be. it is obviously getting worse. how bad, we will see. fingers crossed it turns soon, but it does not look like doing so. why wouldn't people take precautions? it does not mean they are panicking. why wouldn't people go further than they might need? pretty stupid not to. it hardly makes them sheep. i'd suggest anyone not doing so had the intelligence of a sheep. 

Except Y2K for me, Ken. My father (RIP) was so sure Y2K was going to result in apocalypse his chritmas gifts to brother and I, that year, were gas masks, hazmat suits and a huge pair of rubber gloves. I asked my eccentric paranoid father what the gloves were for? And he replied, to move the bodies... This is a real christmas story. Luckily i was already in my 20s, but if i was younger im sure this would have caused some issues.

Later that day, my mother walked in on my brother and I with gas masks on doing our best darth vader impersonations. 

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They have closed all the schools here in Ontario, for 3 weeks now, as opposed to just the week march break that starts Monday.A ton of stuff has been canceled. Its getting real now. I have never been too concerned before(y2k/sars) but today on way home, I did shop and grab a pile of meat I can freeze/pasta/rice/ cough medicine/etc. I think we are going to coming up on a period of time were things are going to get very tough. The big concern I have is hospitals getting overloaded with people if effects. I think its going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I sure hope I'm wrong....I have been before....But I have a bad feel about this. 

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41 minutes ago, Bri Fi said:

Okay I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong about this whole corona virus thing. I thought it was like the common flu and it’ll blow over in a week or two. Possibly, it was stirred up by the media in preparation for the elections?? Well it’s far enough along that I’ll admit I was wrong (which I think the last time I’ve admitted I was wrong was around the Black Plague). 

Sorry to beat a dead horse. I know this is a forum for cigars, but Since this is a worldwide forum I’m curious as to the lengths some of you have gone to prep for this thing. My wife just asked if we should take $10k out of the bank and exchange it for gold. My buddies wife just got a huge fridge to put in the freezer for food. Costco has no toilet paper in the last week (and I refuse to buy single ply no matter how bad this thing gets. I’ll use my damn hand). 
 

last question is relevant but fun. If your collection had to last you for the rest of your life without purchasing another cigar at your current rate of smoking, how long would that last?  I have a good ten years stored. 
 

Stay frosty my friends 

I bought 2 packs of toilet paper at Costco... because I was running out at home and at my office. I also bought some frozen food and other stuff... because I was hungry and thought I'd steam some dim sum for Sunday lunch. Bought some gas at the Costco petrol station too, because I was low on gas.

I bought my prescription medication yesterday evening... because I will be running out this weekend, and don't have time to go to the pharmacy on the weekend.

In saying this, am I taking precautions? Yes, I wash my hands regularly (a habit I got into working in my old job), and working in a warehouse, your hands get grubby very quickly. I try not to touch things with my hands when I'm out and about. At Costco, even though they handed out anti-bacterial wipes for cleaning the trolley handle, I use my forearms to guide the trolley. Am I staying away from large crowds? I do that already, as I do not like hanging around big crowds (I get annoyed quickly by inconsiderate ppl). Other than that, I will sit and wait till this blows over. I am not going to build a bunker and stock it with 20yrs worth of canned food plus survival gear.

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, BoliDan said:

Except Y2K for me, Ken. My father (RIP) was so sure Y2K was going to result in apocalypse his chritmas gifts to brother and I, that year, were gas masks, hazmat suits and a huge pair of rubber gloves. I asked my eccentric paranoid father what the gloves were for? And he replied, to move the bodies... This is a real christmas story. Luckily i was already in my 20s, but if i was younger im sure this would have caused some issues.

Later that day, my mother walked in on my brother and I with gas masks on doing our best darth vader impersonations. 

funny you mention the masks. a close friend of mine was the person in DC, or one of them, charged with monitoring/preparing/dealing with Y2K. no doubt far worse was expected but there were it was not seriously envisioned all humanity was doomed. although she always thought it would be severe, as did many at the time (perhaps worth mentioning she was one of the sharpest people i have ever met so it was not like they handed this off to the office dimwit - i think she was with the pentagon at the time).

we met in london and i have a photo of me in one of her old gas masks - she was a chemical weapons verification expert before the Y2k thing. and yes, of course we did the darth vader. who wouldn't? 

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31 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

...except... ones that stay upright ;)

Beggers cant be choosers. Should just do it M.A.S.H style and have a bunch of tents. Smoker friendly.

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Everyone should read this document from UCSF

Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist. 
Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.  
Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc

* At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. 
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed. 

* How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.

* We are moving from containment to care. 

* We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.

* 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.

* [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]  

* The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.

* This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.

* The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]  

* Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did

Stay safe all.

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10 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

"Gatherings of more than 500 people to be cancelled, Australians urged not to travel overseas" 

in fairness, that will only apply after the Prime Minister has been to see his favourite footy team on the weekend. way to set an example!

mind you, spoke with a mate of mine earlier who'd been at the local library. was saying that there was an old bloke who was assuring those assembled that there was no concern at all. 'australia is an island', he advised then. "so no chance of it taking off here". 

which might come as a surprise to those who already have it. 

 

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