Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[PigFish]

... I think this thread needs some pictures of my firearms collection...! -LOL

Carryon! -the Pig

PS I still think it should have been called the Robusto Virus.

[Akela3rd]

... I think this thread needs some pictures of my firearms collection...! -LOL
Carryon! -the Pig
PS I still think it should have been called the Robusto Virus.

You show that and you'll get a 30 day quarantine...

Sent from GJ 1151

[CaptainQuintero]

1 hour ago, Philc2001 said:

This chart is projecting 12 months, and we are only in month-3, it is theoretical. Notoriously missing from that chart is the USA.

There were some scientists reviewing this on TV.  The key factors in flattening out the curve is testing and having the facilities to care for the infected.  S. Korea is actually doing this way better than Italy, and at least in that regard this chart is inaccurate. The reason S. Korea is not shutting down like Italy is mostly because they ramped up testing very aggressively.  They are way ahead of any other country in testing. The U.S. right now is likely on the Red curve. We still don't have test kits available in most hospitals, especially in large cities and hot-spot areas where cases are rising rapidly. You can't contain it if you don't know who is infected and what they are doing. Maybe U.K. will have a better go, but if they don't ramp-up testing fast, they will follow the red or the blue curve. 

  That's the long and short of it, and crucially what the media and a lot of governments, for whatever reason, are not saying. There is no containing this. That isn't a scare tactic, it's simply the standard approach that's taken to anything of this scale thats moved past a certain stage.

   That containment option, if it ever was a realistic option, disappeared back in December. All the actions being taken now is to try and delay the rates of infection. Testing, especially outside of hospitals, becomes less important as the numbers scale up. Expect testing to be going down and triage to replace it.

  It's fair to say there's little to no correlation between different nations and what they are doing and the numbers of reported infections. Italy and Japan both have very old demographics, but are on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of infected numbers. This could be down to testing rates, statistic suppression or something else we can't see. It was thought that Italy had s different strain due to the high death count, but it's turned out that they simply had no idea how many were infected. They had an official count which in no way reflected the reality. Denmark is another wild outlier that bucks the known trend.  

  Essentially it's coming down to that fact that testing is only telling you what the person you test has or doesn't have. It doesn't help treat the virus and we've moved past the stage where nations are trying to trace and track infected individuals. Energy is moving from testing to triage as it comes apparent that the potential infected numbers is going to be very large.

  The rolling news will be shifting from testing and confirmed cases, to estimated numbers of infected, then to numbers of hospital beds when in actuality it's ventilators which will be the crucial item. This whole idea of delay and not contain is to give the government time to acquire the ventilators etc that they wouldn't otherwise have time to get if they shut down schools/workplaces straight away to make people think this was being contained

[PigFish]

26 minutes ago, Akela3rd said:

You show that and you'll get a 30 day quarantine...

Sent from GJ 1151
 

Jesus... now that worries me! Dying and not having access to FoH...! The horror!

-Piggy

[inter4alia]

2 hours ago, Akela3rd said:

You show that and you'll get a 30 day quarantine...

Sent from GJ 1151
 

I'm guessing it might be worth it. Let's see it! 

Kidding, of course. Maybe... 

[Philc2001]

1 hour ago, CaptainQuintero said:

  That's the long and short of it, and crucially what the media and a lot of governments, for whatever reason, are not saying. There is no containing this. That isn't a scare tactic, it's simply the standard approach that's taken to anything of this scale thats moved past a certain stage.

   That containment option, if it ever was a realistic option, disappeared back in December. All the actions being taken now is to try and delay the rates of infection. Testing, especially outside of hospitals, becomes less important as the numbers scale up. Expect testing to be going down and triage to replace it.

  It's fair to say there's little to no correlation between different nations and what they are doing and the numbers of reported infections. Italy and Japan both have very old demographics, but are on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of infected numbers. This could be down to testing rates, statistic suppression or something else we can't see. It was thought that Italy had s different strain due to the high death count, but it's turned out that they simply had no idea how many were infected. They had an official count which in no way reflected the reality. Denmark is another wild outlier that bucks the known trend.  

  Essentially it's coming down to that fact that testing is only telling you what the person you test has or doesn't have. It doesn't help treat the virus and we've moved past the stage where nations are trying to trace and track infected individuals. Energy is moving from testing to triage as it comes apparent that the potential infected numbers is going to be very large.

  The rolling news will be shifting from testing and confirmed cases, to estimated numbers of infected, then to numbers of hospital beds when in actuality it's ventilators which will be the crucial item. This whole idea of delay and not contain is to give the government time to acquire the ventilators etc that they wouldn't otherwise have time to get if they shut down schools/workplaces straight away to make people think this was being contained

Yes, yes. Containment only works on day-1, at ground zero. Once it breaks out the best we can do is slow it down and stretch it out as long as possible until we have a vaccine. The most important thing is to slow it down enough so it doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system. If we had been able to react faster, ramped up testing early, kept track of the infected, we could have avoided the draconian extremes we are now dealing with. This has to be the most important take away from this mess. That is what day-0 preparations are all about, so this doesn't happen to us again.  

BTW - Singapore may have been the best prepared for this epidemic after they experienced SARS and H1N1, and maybe there are some lessons there. 

[Riverstyx]

It’s China and the numbers are wrong and they have an authoritative government that can control it better than others...but STILL! 1.3 billion population and contained it to 80k reported cases (multiply by 10 and it’s still impressive). I don’t care who you are, controlling even that province is near impossible. Point: gives me hope. 

[Riverstyx]

1 minute ago, Yellot00tr said:

China’s numbers were woefully under reported from what we’ve heard. I don’t think I would trust any numbers they or Iran put out. However, in terms of having the ability to clamp down on a population-China is second to none. That makes a huge difference. You’re born and raised understanding that the gov’t controls every aspect of your life. There’s no freedom of information act or suing the gov’t. You do as you’re told or you disappear. Very effective means of control. Without public panic, you couldn’t do that in the US.

Totally agree. Still, the number of people we’re talking about is so large. And China has plenty of rebels. 
 

Also, “without public panic...” if there is, it might also be the opportunity to beat it. Again, point being that there are plenty of ways human ingenuity can win, and I also have faith in humankind coming together in an extreme scenario to do something they otherwise wouldn’t. But I hope it doesn’t come to that. 

[Ken Gargett]

15 minutes ago, Yellot00tr said:

Without public panic

for this, there needs to be leadership. look around the world, some countries might have some hope, but the majority would be better off if their leaders were the first to go down. 

[Riverstyx]

25 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

for this, there needs to be leadership. look around the world, some countries might have some hope, but the majority would be better off if their leaders were the first to go down. 

I hear ya, but I think in the worst of times sometimes you can find some common enemy. 
 

I find it fascinating watching people react. Some think it’s media and nothing to worry about, some think it’s a big deal and something we need to address, and some people say they think it’s a big deal but act like the world is going to end (actions and way they present themselves). And everyone is arguing.  In my opinion, a better perspective is to think about things as probabilities and keep an open mind to it all. And probably the biggest thing I find fascinating is watching how equipped humankind is with uncertainty. Because at the end of the day, that’s what it is. 

[CaptainQuintero]

2 hours ago, Philc2001 said:

Yes, yes. Containment only works on day-1, at ground zero. Once it breaks out the best we can do is slow it down and stretch it out as long as possible until we have a vaccine. The most important thing is to slow it down enough so it doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system. If we had been able to react faster, ramped up testing early, kept track of the infected, we could have avoided the draconian extremes we are now dealing with. This has to be the most important take away from this mess. That is what day-0 preparations are all about, so this doesn't happen to us again.  

BTW - Singapore may have been the best prepared for this epidemic after they experienced SARS and H1N1, and maybe there are some lessons there. 

  Don't get me wrong I totally agree with you re lockdown back when everything started. Captain Hindsight is an underrated superhero but looking back there should have been procedures put in place back when globalisation really took off as pandemics were just a matter of time. On the scale of things that could happen this one looks like it's reasonable mild, but we had a warning with Ebola and no one seemingly used it as a wake up call.

  I watched the TV dumbfounded when we started flying/bussing back people from infected countries, then watched as 150,000 international students arrived back after Christmas holidays. People were flying back from Italy with zero checks to until last week.

  You can only assume that epidemiologists and civil planners knew that it was too late when they found out China had been suppressing the outbreaks and it was out. Still, blunt and honest information would have been appreciated. But just looking how bog roll scramble has become so popular, maybe most people wouldn't have been able to deal with that

 

2 hours ago, Riverstyx said:

It’s China and the numbers are wrong and they have an authoritative government that can control it better than others...but STILL! 1.3 billion population and contained it to 80k reported cases (multiply by 10 and it’s still impressive). I don’t care who you are, controlling even that province is near impossible. Point: gives me hope. 

  It's next door which worries me; India has been especially quiet. Public health there is questionable at best, already poor air quality, almost widespread respiratory diseases and TB, huge slums and large areas with no basic sanitation, at least 150million without any access to clean water.

  They've supposedly shut down the borders but are reporting cases now. If anywhere has the potential to get out of control it's there. I hope they have things under control and plans already in motion 

[Subcomandante]

Schools and our baby sitter are closed for 3 weeks. I went to the supermarket to buy food. Not full on doomsday prepper but more for the fact that we were used to feeding my daughter once a day to 3x a day. And my fiancé or me 2-3 meals a day. Stock up was pretty dry on long lasting stuff like peanut butter, crackers, lots of canned foods, etc. No water other than random singles of pH balanced water. 

[scap99]

Mexico is threatening to close their northern border.  Just like in the movie Day After Tomorrow.  It's ironic because their infected people bring TB, Measles, etc across and into the states all the time.  Oh well, it's a porous border until the wall is finished, so good luck with that Mexico.

[Ken Gargett]

2 minutes ago, CaptainQuintero said:

  It's next door which worries me; India has been especially quiet. Public health there is questionable at best, they've supposedly shut down the borders but are reporting cases now. If anywhere has the potential to get out of control it's there. I hope they have things under control

80 cases for that population and those conditions? fat chance. pakistan has had 28 cases. bangladesh has three cases? i would suggest that they either have no idea, are way under-reporting or they are about to explode.

my concern would be africa. a lot of the nations are starting to report a small number of cases. there is simply no way that they are prepared. we could see a massive contagion through there. 

[The Squiggler]

First documented case of CoronaV in Knoxville yesterday or day before, now up to 8, no 9, no 10.   AHHHHHHHHHHH!  Luckily I bought all the Charmin from Kroger last week on a non-CV-related-whim.  My biggest fear is running out of spicy chicken chow mein ramen bowls... These freaks are raking the shelves clean. 

[Habana Mike]

#StayTheFfcukHome

A Movement to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic

Our governments are failing at preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Slow reactions, public appeasement policies, and their urge to stabilize the economy are keeping them from taking the measures it takes to protect millions from this disease. It is time for us, as citizens of this earth, to take action now and do our part in fighting COVID-19.

Let's put it bluntly: Stay The Fcuk Home!

The Self-Quarantine Manifesto

With no well-studied treatment and a viable vaccine still being out at least another year, the only effective way to keep the coronavirus epidemic at bay is to give the virus less chances of spreading. The following list of actions, ordered from easiest to implement to most effective in the fight against the pandemic, should serve as a set of loose guidelines for people who wish to join the movement and take action, where the people in charge continue to neglect.

1. Don't panic, but be alert.
2. Wash your hands often and practice good cough and sneeze etiquette.
3. Try to touch your face as little as possible, including your mouth, nose, and eyes.
4. Practice social distancing, no hugs and kisses, no handshakes, no high fives. If you must, use safer alternatives.
5. Do not attend concerts, stage plays, sporting events, or any other mass entertainment events.
6. Refrain from visiting museums, exhibitions, movie theaters, night clubs, and other entertainment venues.
7. Stay away from social gatherings and events, like club meetings, religious services, and private parties.
8. Reduce your amount of travel to a minimum. Don't travel long distances if not absolutely necessary.
9. Do not use public transportation if not absolutely necessary.
10. If you can work from home, work from home. Urge your employer to allow remote work if needed.
11. Replace as many social interactions as possible with remote alternatives like phone calls or video chat.
12. Do not leave your home if not absolutely necessary.

Please keep in mind there is no right or wrong amount of actions to take. Only take the actions that you feel comfortable with and that do not endanger your livelihood. Do not quit your job over this! However, keep in mind that every action helps.

Why it's so Important

SARS-CoV-2 is a highly infectious and potentially deadly virus that causes a respiratory disease called COVID-19. You might know it under one of its many other names, including 2019-nCoV, novel coronavirus, Wuhan coronavirus, China or Wuhan flu, or just simply coronavirus. All of these refer to the same virus that this movement is trying to stop.

Over the past months and weeks, the virus and corresponding disease have been compared over and over to the influenza virus and the seasonal flu. Due to the overlap in symptoms and seemingly similar severity, this comparison comes naturally to a lot of people, however, looking at what we know so far about this new virus, the threat it poses to society is not easily brushed aside.

1. More Contagious Than the Flu

   With an estimated R0 between 1.4 – 6.49 and a mean estimate of 3.28^[1], SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious and spreads much faster than the seasonal flu, which has a median R0 of 1.28^[2].

    

2. More Deadly Than the Flu

   The so-called case fatality rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be at around 2%^[3], meaning that unfortunately, an estimated 2% of people getting diagnosed with COVID-19 will succumb to it. In comparison, the CFR of seasonal influenza is estimated to be around 0.1%^[4], this means SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be about 20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu.

    

3. Possibility of Severe Symptoms

   An estimated 15 – 20% of infected individuals suffer from severe symptoms that require medical attention^[5], including pneumonia with shortness of breath and lowered blood oxygen saturation.

4. No Treatment, No Vaccine, No Immunity

   As SARS-CoV-2 has only recently emerged, there is no well-studied treatment for COVID-19 and more research is needed, in order to treat infected people efficiently. Likewise, there is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 yet^[6] and the development of such vaccine will take a significant amount of time. With no vaccines and no prior and wide-spread immunity, anyone is a susceptible target for infection. While most infected people will only suffer from mild symptoms, this lack of herd-immunity can lead to severe illness in a significant amount of at-risk individuals.

5. Exponential Growth

   Due to the lack of immunity to this new virus, the entire human population is the upper limit of possible infections. And although exponential growth always seems slow at first, it can lead to unfathomably high numbers in a rather short time. With the numbers of infected people currently doubling in a matter of a few days^[7], our medical systems will be potentially overloaded, which will lead to higher numbers of fatalities, due to people not receiving the care they need.

By joining the movement and therefore limiting possibilities for new infections, you are not only protecting yourself, but you are also helping contain and limit the spread for everyone else, especially those who are at higher risk to suffer severe consequences from this virus.

If you care about this cause, please share it on social media, via email or just tell your friends and family about it. But please, just #StayTheFcukHome.

[Ken Gargett]

25 minutes ago, Habana Mike said:

#StayTheFfcukHome

A Movement to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic

Our governments are failing at preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Slow reactions, public appeasement policies, and their urge to stabilize the economy are keeping them from taking the measures it takes to protect millions from this disease. It is time for us, as citizens of this earth, to take action now and do our part in fighting COVID-19.

Let's put it bluntly: Stay The Fcuk Home!

The Self-Quarantine Manifesto

With no well-studied treatment and a viable vaccine still being out at least another year, the only effective way to keep the coronavirus epidemic at bay is to give the virus less chances of spreading. The following list of actions, ordered from easiest to implement to most effective in the fight against the pandemic, should serve as a set of loose guidelines for people who wish to join the movement and take action, where the people in charge continue to neglect.

1. Don't panic, but be alert.
2. Wash your hands often and practice good cough and sneeze etiquette.
3. Try to touch your face as little as possible, including your mouth, nose, and eyes.
4. Practice social distancing, no hugs and kisses, no handshakes, no high fives. If you must, use safer alternatives.
5. Do not attend concerts, stage plays, sporting events, or any other mass entertainment events.
6. Refrain from visiting museums, exhibitions, movie theaters, night clubs, and other entertainment venues.
7. Stay away from social gatherings and events, like club meetings, religious services, and private parties.
8. Reduce your amount of travel to a minimum. Don't travel long distances if not absolutely necessary.
9. Do not use public transportation if not absolutely necessary.
10. If you can work from home, work from home. Urge your employer to allow remote work if needed.
11. Replace as many social interactions as possible with remote alternatives like phone calls or video chat.
12. Do not leave your home if not absolutely necessary.

Please keep in mind there is no right or wrong amount of actions to take. Only take the actions that you feel comfortable with and that do not endanger your livelihood. Do not quit your job over this! However, keep in mind that every action helps.

Why it's so Important

SARS-CoV-2 is a highly infectious and potentially deadly virus that causes a respiratory disease called COVID-19. You might know it under one of its many other names, including 2019-nCoV, novel coronavirus, Wuhan coronavirus, China or Wuhan flu, or just simply coronavirus. All of these refer to the same virus that this movement is trying to stop.

Over the past months and weeks, the virus and corresponding disease have been compared over and over to the influenza virus and the seasonal flu. Due to the overlap in symptoms and seemingly similar severity, this comparison comes naturally to a lot of people, however, looking at what we know so far about this new virus, the threat it poses to society is not easily brushed aside.

1. More Contagious Than the Flu

   With an estimated R0 between 1.4 – 6.49 and a mean estimate of 3.28^[1], SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious and spreads much faster than the seasonal flu, which has a median R0 of 1.28^[2].

    

2. More Deadly Than the Flu

   The so-called case fatality rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be at around 2%^[3], meaning that unfortunately, an estimated 2% of people getting diagnosed with COVID-19 will succumb to it. In comparison, the CFR of seasonal influenza is estimated to be around 0.1%^[4], this means SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be about 20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu.

    

3. Possibility of Severe Symptoms

   An estimated 15 – 20% of infected individuals suffer from severe symptoms that require medical attention^[5], including pneumonia with shortness of breath and lowered blood oxygen saturation.

4. No Treatment, No Vaccine, No Immunity

   As SARS-CoV-2 has only recently emerged, there is no well-studied treatment for COVID-19 and more research is needed, in order to treat infected people efficiently. Likewise, there is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 yet^[6] and the development of such vaccine will take a significant amount of time. With no vaccines and no prior and wide-spread immunity, anyone is a susceptible target for infection. While most infected people will only suffer from mild symptoms, this lack of herd-immunity can lead to severe illness in a significant amount of at-risk individuals.

5. Exponential Growth

   Due to the lack of immunity to this new virus, the entire human population is the upper limit of possible infections. And although exponential growth always seems slow at first, it can lead to unfathomably high numbers in a rather short time. With the numbers of infected people currently doubling in a matter of a few days^[7], our medical systems will be potentially overloaded, which will lead to higher numbers of fatalities, due to people not receiving the care they need.

By joining the movement and therefore limiting possibilities for new infections, you are not only protecting yourself, but you are also helping contain and limit the spread for everyone else, especially those who are at higher risk to suffer severe consequences from this virus.

If you care about this cause, please share it on social media, via email or just tell your friends and family about it. But please, just #StayTheFcukHome.

if i can relate this back to the posts earlier about india/africa, it obviously makes immense sense and may even be what turns this, with luck. but think of the nations mentioned (yes, africa not a nation, but you know what i mean). think of the crowded conditions many endure. millions won't have the option of staying at home. if they want to eat, they'll need to go out into fields, markets, factories. the potential for disaster seems obvious. 

[Habana Mike]

41 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

if i can relate this back to the posts earlier about india/africa, it obviously makes immense sense and may even be what turns this, with luck. but think of the nations mentioned (yes, africa not a nation, but you know what i mean). think of the crowded conditions many endure. millions won't have the option of staying at home. if they want to eat, they'll need to go out into fields, markets, factories. the potential for disaster seems obvious. 

Completely agree Ken. It will become a disaster of major proportions based on what we've already observed. All we can do globally is attempt to avoid getting infected or infecting others.

Until we can get the entire world to stay home for 3 weeks at the same time it will continue to spread. Unlikely to happen though.....

[TheCigarslayer]

Just got back from a very poorly timed vacation in the Dominican. On the way in PUJ was like nothing was going on...on the way out masks and gloves with some healthy distance. 

EWR was business as usual....and the "non-resident" line was full....no questions, no concerns, no..masks? Odd. It was a little concerning because a person I know went through JFK and was belittled and riddled with questions coming back from international travel so it seems to be not applied the same across the board. 

Also very gracious my neighbor intercepted all my deliveries! So some good news here. 

[BellevilleMXZ]

13 hours ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

I'll just leave this right here. Many people in the discussion not understanding relative risks or basic data analytics.

Where did you find that chart? 

[La_Tigre]

Hahaha suckers, I’m gonna be so rich!!!!!

[Homer]

Situation in Europe is getting worse so fast. Soon Europe is closed. 

[CaptainQuintero]

  This is the graph of the Spanish flu in 1918, the idea of the UK response is to avoid the second peak shown 

  Wether it works or not only time will tell

[Lotusguy]

All schools in the district now closed until April 13. Wife got full refund from Airbnb in NYC for a trip she had booked for late March without even requesting it. I haven’t dared to go into any stores since last weekend since I didn’t want to be trampled to death

Where we live we always need to maintain a healthy stash of non-perishable items due to fire and earthquake danger plus frequent power outages so we’re good for a few weeks.

[Cigar Surgeon]

11 hours ago, BellevilleMXZ said:

Where did you find that chart? 

I can't recall, it could be /r/dataisbeautiful

I'm a data analyst and I've been telling people now for almost 6 weeks that the data coming out of China was flawed, and didn't match curve fits for viral outbreaks. The data coming out of Italy very closely matches curve fits for viral outbreaks, and is in my opinion the most reliable data to date about how the virus spreads and the fatality rate.

I suspect with the quarantine in place we're now seeing a drop off in the number of new cases being reported because of testing, not necessarily because the virus isn't still spreading.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/