Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?


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This is party time for the young and millennials and no one else is listening . The virus will spread as the request to social distance has already failed. This will become worst case scenario as everyone thinks they are special and cheating the request to stay the f**k home , as it does not apply to them.

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The impact of coronavirus where I am?   Hmm.  Where to begin.  Last weekend, when I left the hospital on Friday night, we had 9 cases in our ICU.  When I came in on Monday, the ICU was completely

Might be irreverent after I posted the currently existing horror scenarios back on page 1 and 2 of this thread on January 30th - ages ago in this fast developing news circle. So, to end my commen

I’m ready, come what may...  

37 minutes ago, helix said:

This is party time for the young and millennials and no one else is listening . The virus will spread as the request to social distance has already failed. This will become worst case scenario as everyone thinks they are special and cheating the request to stay the f**k home , as it does not apply to them.

I mean all you have to do is look through the comments in this discussion from February to see what some of the prevailing attitudes are. I'm thankful that Canada and the US are shutting the border, I wasn't expecting them to make that move for weeks. Shutting it down now is wise.

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8 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

I mean all you have to do is look through the comments in this discussion from February to see what some of the prevailing attitudes are. I'm thankful that Canada and the US are shutting the border, I wasn't expecting them to make that move for weeks. Shutting it down now is wise.

You don't have to go back as far as February. 10 days or even a week is more than enough.

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and all the folks who decided to go on vacation despite the warnings are being hauled back early by the same airlines who flew them there up until just a couple days ago.

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I'm on lockdown here in California. We are headed toward a major depression. Every company in the US will be bankrupt in 12-18 months if this is not contained quickly. Most companies will not even survive 30 days with zero cashflow. You have younger generations being selfish and staying outside and socializing because risk to them is very low. But the risk to all of us as a society is so great. I beg all to stay inside and wait this out.

 

 

 

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Yah, global depression is imminent. It'll take 5yrs to dig out of this financial hit and just get back to a place where people's retirement accounts get back to 2019 numbers. This is unparalleled in my lifetime. 

Elementary-HS just announced closures through April 28th. Kids will be out of school for 2 months. Thankfully my wife is a teacher so we can try to create some structure, lesson planning and the like, along with her profession meaning overwhelmingly if kids are home she's home, but for low-income folks, relatively uneducated households? There could be a generational consequence to some of this stuff. HS seniors who were failing and needed a last hurrah to graduate. College students missing out on labs, networking, and internships to prepare for post-academia. This is bad. In ways that we haven't even really considered yet. 

The upside, as a volunteer youth sports coach, and somebody that dabbles in some martial arts training and coaching, with all activities canceled I've had evenings free for a couple weeks now. Using it as newfound time to work harder on getting in shape and burning through my 9yr supply of cigars ;)

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21 minutes ago, SmokyFontaine said:

This is bad. In ways that we haven't even really considered yet. 

I agree...unforeseen consequences will abound when we finally reach the other end of this. But the optimist in me can’t help but think there will also be a few beneficial consequences not yet considered as well, I just can’t think of any right now.

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The following is nothing more than my personal thoughts and reflects on nothing / nobody else ( only upon me )...

Either we're being undersold or oversold ( are the four horsemen riding into view or not? )

Screw COVID-19 ( my new band name ™ )

Screw the fear mongering

Screw the panic buyers / hoarders

I've already said I'm on the side of the fence which believes more people have it than not - I often think it would be easier if everyone had it, got over it in a couple of weeks (and yes, I know it could be much worse for some) and we could continue on. I kind of think that shutting down the world will have a far worse impact than people getting sick

Screw the stock traders

Screw the government shutdowns

Screw the chicken littles

Imagine if opioids were rallied against in such a fashion...

 

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47 minutes ago, SmokyFontaine said:

Yah, global depression is imminent. It'll take 5yrs to dig out of this financial hit and just get back to a place where people's retirement accounts get back to 2019 numbers. This is unparalleled in my lifetime. 

Elementary-HS just announced closures through April 28th. Kids will be out of school for 2 months. Thankfully my wife is a teacher so we can try to create some structure, lesson planning and the like, along with her profession meaning overwhelmingly if kids are home she's home, but for low-income folks, relatively uneducated households? There could be a generational consequence to some of this stuff. HS seniors who were failing and needed a last hurrah to graduate. College students missing out on labs, networking, and internships to prepare for post-academia. This is bad. In ways that we haven't even really considered yet. 

The upside, as a volunteer youth sports coach, and somebody that dabbles in some martial arts training and coaching, with all activities canceled I've had evenings free for a couple weeks now. Using it as newfound time to work harder on getting in shape and burning through my 9yr supply of cigars ;)

5 years to recover? That is a very pessimistic prediction. I hope your number is way off. 

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17 minutes ago, Colt45 said:

The following is nothing more than my personal thoughts and reflects on nothing / nobody else ( only upon me )...

Either we're being undersold or oversold ( are the four horsemen riding into view or not? )

Screw COVID-19 ( my new band name ™ )

Screw the fear mongering

Screw the panic buyers / hoarders

I've already said I'm on the side of the fence which believes more people have it than not - I often think it would be easier if everyone had it, got over it in a couple of weeks (and yes, I know it could be much worse for some) and we could continue on. I kind of think that shutting down the world will have a far worse impact than people getting sick

Screw the stock traders

Screw the government shutdowns

Screw the chicken littles

Imagine if opioids were rallied against in such a fashion...

 

Its going to spread just taking measures to slow the infection rate as to maintain the health system so people that need life saving care have it available. 

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Nobody here even knows what a DEPRESSION is!! Were any of you alive in the late 20's? Stop with your end of the world attitude! It does absolutely no damn good.

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13 minutes ago, NYgarman said:

Nobody here even knows what a DEPRESSION is!! 

I would hazard a guess that it looks a lot like the global destruction of the hospitality/service industry. 

Many people will need to be looked after (fed and housed)  by the state if this goes on more than a few months. 

The industry will rise again but many who are falling or about to fall won't be among them. They deserve some acknowledgement for the pain they are going through. 

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3 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I would hazard a guess that it looks a lot like the global destruction of the hospitality/service industry. 

Many people will need to be looked after (fed and housed)  by the state if this goes on more than a few months. 

The industry will rise again but many who are falling or about to fall won't be among them. They deserve some acknowledgement for the pain they are going through. 

Agreed. Hopefully this ends sooner than later. Support your local restaurant even if it is just takeout or delivery. Some patronage is better than none. 

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4 minutes ago, NYgarman said:

Nobody here even knows what a DEPRESSION is!! Were any of you alive in the late 20's? Stop with your end of the world attitude! It does absolutely no damn good.

No, sadly I wasn't alive in the 20's. It sounds like a great time. Other than the fact that everything was black and white. Sarcasm aside, yah, I get the definition of a depression

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

Like...by the line, yes. We're on the precipice of this. The Dow down around 9,000pts. Interest rates near 0. Small businesses closing. Manufacturing shutting down. Suggestions of anywhere from 2 weeks to 90 days of this. Weeks away from Q1 numbers being released. Months away from Q2 numbers showing what Q1 numbers were capturing part of. 

If you don't think we're nearing circumstances where a depression could absolutely materialize, then I just fundamentally disagree with you. This is a health problem. This is a societal crisis. To sweep it away as anything but, is foolish. I'm not all that old (remember, born post 1920's) but this is the most troubling financial and societal collapse of my middle-aged life, and there isn't a close second. 

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40 minutes ago, helix said:

Its going to spread just taking measures to slow the infection rate as to maintain the health system so people that need life saving care have it available. 

As it should be - people who are really sick should be taken care of in the hospital. Anyone with a runny nose, sore throat, cough, should just stay home.

If it is a tsunami, it won't be stopped and will have to run it's course.

As an aside, and again just on me, I'm more pissed off every day, and to be honest, equally embarrassed.

What's going to happen when some really bad plague happens? ( unless this is and we're being kept in the dark )

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5 minutes ago, Colt45 said:

As an aside, and again just on me, I'm more pissed off every day, and to be honest, equally embarrassed.

What's going to happen when some really bad plague happens? ( unless this is and we're being kept in the dark )

I am with you Ross. 

This hasn't been our species "finest hour". I never realised all those years ago that the book "Lord of the flies" was a documentary. 

 

 

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We hunker down during adverse weather like hurricanes, storms, and extreme temps. I think people living in extreme weather areas get this idea, nature can force you to hunker down. Essentially this is also nature but instead of weather, its a biological storm that most have never seen in our lifetimes.  We have to hunker down but its tough for most people to see because outside seems ok but  everyone around you can potentially get you sick and killed. 

I was arguing with my wife about my college age step daughter and her boyfriend visiting us because she was pulled out of her internship in South Carolina, due to this virus. Her dad told her she can't see friends at home so she wants to come up to visit us here in Chicago.  I told my wife flat out she needs to hunker down in Ohio.  She was arguing what is the difference between her hunkering down here vs in Ohio, um the unnecessary travel. I don't think I was over reacting in this case but I was made out to be a bad guy for being unwelcoming. <_<

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What's going on is something that should be taken very seriously, but I'm beginning to suspect that the media and the fear they're fomenting are more dangerous than the virus...

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My COVID-19 update - March 18th 


By David A Sinclair 

I feel I have an obligation as a scientist to cut through the politics and shallow reporting. In this time of uncertainty, it is more important than ever to base our views and decisions on facts, and to tell the truth, even if it is hard to hear. Let’s be clear: I’m not an epidemiologist, immunologist, or an MD. I do, however, have an unusual body of experience that I am trying to bring to bear. My Ph.D. is in genetics and microbiology. I co-founded and am the chief scientific advisor to a company that detects viruses called Arc-Bio. I can understand, filter, and interpret biological and medical literature more than most. I also have a network of doctors, CEOs, and scientists that I consult with as new data emerges. 

I will be sending out updates via this newsletter and on social media on what I read in credible scientific publications from around the world, with my interpretation of what seems to work, whether the virus is changing, what you can do to stay safe, and what the future holds.

The next few weeks are going to be bad, folks. Here’s what experts from Stanford on the front-lines predict: peak COVID-19 cases will not be until July 2020, with a total number of deaths in the USA ranging from 500,000 to 1 million. That’s sobering.

If we had instituted a nationwide lockdown last week, we may have seen infections die down over the next 2 months, as happened in Hubei province and across China. Similarly, Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong brought their cases to manageable levels through social isolation and mass testing in the 100s of thousands of people. Many of them even before they had symptoms. Singapore sent every citizen masks and every carrier was followed by five people. 

The three main tests are: 

  1. Test for the viral RNA (so-called PCR tests) 
  2. A 15-minute antibody test for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein which is less reliable (89% sensitive).
  3. The third type of test is “DNA sequencing” which will be important to track the evolution of the virus and detect co-infections that make the condition worse, like flu, colds, and bacteria called pneumococci that cause bacterial pneumonia.

But the US, Europe, and Australia are not like China, and certainly not Singapore. Most leaders are currently reluctant to issue draconian blanket orders. They worry about the effect on small businesses. They worry many people don’t have health insurance. They worry about the dwindling cash reserves of companies and individuals. 

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Data from March 15th that looks at how containment gets harder every day we delay. Source: Ben Kuhn and Yuri Vishnevsky on ObservableHQ

What should we expect from here? 

At first, I was worried about reinfection. Rumors out of China said this might be possible. New studies in monkeys suggest this is extremely unlikely. That’s very good news for humanity. But there will be a lot of pain for the rest of the year. There may be a repurposing of hotels to be intensive care units (ICUs) in the coming weeks. The governor of California says don’t expect kids to go back to school this year. Hospitals are starting to look like a scene from M*A*S*H, with tents outside and long lines of people waiting for testing. No visitors allowed. All non-essential operations are postponed. There are very few infectious disease doctors at each hospital, sleeping from midnight to 4 AM, walking around wards in what look like spacesuits. ICUs are already in chaos in major cities. And this is an early stage. What happens a few weeks from now?

This is why scenes from Florida of youths continuing to party and congregate are extremely worrying. Many of them will unwittingly carry the virus back to their friends and families. Unless there’s a lockdown of all of us for two months at least, except for essential staff, the viral spread will continue at high rates and will continue to overwhelm hospitals. Beds, ventilators, and nurses will be in short supply. Hospital staff will contract COVID-19. Already, the number of nurses has been on the decline for years. When hospitals run out of ventilator machines, then, like Italy, doctors will have to make heart-wrenching decisions who to help and who to let die. While this may not sound that bad, imagine it’s your parent or grandparent who is denied the ventilator. 

As I write this, my friend Dr. Peter Attia just received word from an ICU doctor at a small NY hospital that they are officially out of ventilators and are doubling up ventilators to keep 2 patients alive with one machine.

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I saw this tweet in response to a warning NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez gave to young people about staying inside. This person's response had politically motivated undertones. This is not about politics. We need young people to come together to help protect our most vulnerable. We are all in this together.

I am often asked, “How do I know I’m infected?”  Based on formal accounts out of China and Australia, in the first few days of infection you probably won’t know you have it. You will be leaving a trail of viral particles at home, on food, on elevator buttons, or at the grocery store or restaurant. Droplets, skin contact, surfaces, and food seem to be how it’s transmitted. 

Fomites (surfaces that spread disease) can infect you 24-96 hours after someone has contaminated it, depending on whether it is steel or plastic. Droplets from breath can stay in the air for 30 minutes before falling to the ground. If you can smell someone’s breath, say if they had recently smoked or ate garlic, you can be infected. Think of these droplets like they were a fog.

Coronaviruses usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. However, three times in this century coronavirus outbreaks have emerged from animal reservoirs to cause severe disease and global transmission concerns, SARS (2002-4), MERS (2012 and remains in camels) and COVID-19 (2019, with the greatest similarity to bat coronaviruses). Why they are emerging now and not last century is not clear but theories include climate change and greater human-wild animal contact, as more humans push further into virgin forests and use “bush meat” for food.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) usually begins like you are getting a cold. You will have a dry, raspy throat. Maybe a headache. You may have a dry (but not wet) cough. You almost certainly won’t be sneezing (that’s the common cold). Within days, you’ll feel like you’ve got the flu, with a high fever, aches and pains. Sometimes you can feel like you are recovering - until the pneumonia starts. 

That’s when your lungs can’t get enough oxygen and you develop crepitance, when your lungs crackle because there’s not enough surfactant (biological detergents). Think of a balloon that’s wet on the inside. Because the virus also attacks the heart, pericarditis can also occur in the late stages, leading to cardiogenic shock and death due to cardiac arrest. Other organs that get attacked are the kidney and gut. Even the lining of blood vessels.

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Cumulative global coronavirus cases.
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As of today, March 18th, more than 8000 people globally have died. There are more than 200,000 confirmed cases in at least 146 countries/territories, according to the World Health Organization. 

Fatality rates vacillate between 0.7% and 6% depending on the number of tests that are taken and the number of critical care units still available in the region. The R0, the number of people a carrier infects, is between 2 to 4. That means that for every 1 person that contracts the virus, 2 to 4 will become infected. 

In the US, we expect a doubling of cases every six days. That means we are looking at about 1 million cases by the end of April.

Then 2 million by May 7.

Then 4 million by May 13.

 

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The Workers Who Face the Greatest Coronavirus Risk - Credit The New York Times. Loggers face the least risk while health care workers are at greatest risk.

We are no longer able to wipe this virus off the face of the planet by containment, so currently, the strategy is two-fold — flatten and delay:

1. We need to flatten the curve rate of infection to help ease the pressure on our healthcare system. We need young people especially to help us fight this by staying inside and self quarantining. 

2. Somewhere between 33% and 75% of us will catch this disease, unless we can delay it until a vaccine trial is successful, which is another 18 months away, assuming it does work. I am hopeful but, until then, we have to live with corona. 

Ultimately, we will get to what’s called a “herd immunity”. That means that enough of us have developed a resistance to COVID-19 that the R0 is less than one. When that happens, the virus should eventually peter out. 

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How to “flatten the curve” - Source: The Washington Post

What seems to work is chloroquine, also known as Planiquil, a malarial drug doctors in China showed in small trials did help (though this is now apparently questioned by doctors in the USA). 

There’s a 50% chance remdevisir, an investigational broad-spectrum antiviral treatment from Giliead Pharmaceuticals, which seemed to limit MERS symptoms in animal tests, will also help COVID-19 patients. Trials began on Feb 25th at the University of Nebraska, Omaha, sponsored by the National Institutes of Health. Results will likely be known in a few months. In the meantime, doctors are prescribing remdevisir off-label.

Treatments that doctors say don’t work are colloidal silver, ganciclovir and related antivirals, anti-inflammatory steroids such as prednisolone, and there’s new caution out of France being placed on ibuprofen, which is said to make symptoms worse. Acetaminophen, which is not an anti-inflammatory, seems fine to use at home, but not in large amounts and never should be taken with alcohol. 

Tamiflu seems to suppress the virus' reproduction in at least some cases which are somewhat surprising as Tamiflu was designed to target an enzyme on the influenza virus, not on coronaviruses. A test vaccine for the first SARS virus that targeted the corona spike protein actually backfired and made infected monkeys worse, so doctors have to be careful when testing new COVID-19 vaccines on humans, especially because most target the spike protein.

Other drugs under investigation include Kaletra, Aluvia, Prezcobix, Truvada, PegIntron, Sylatron, Xofluza, Kevzara, Galidesivir, Ganovo, Bevacizumab, recombinant ACE2, PD-1-blocking antibody, thymosin, placenta-based cell therapy, and a CCR5 antagonist, along with more than 40 vaccine trials globally.

Humanity is fighting back!

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This is deadly serious. Self-isolate and make sure you stay positive. Meditate, workout from home regularly. Build a routine and reach out to friends, family or me! If you need to talk. 

Here are some helpful links on ways to workout out at home with little to no equipment. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MRNjTr6xrE&list=PLvJSNTaFRsEH7BJ9c0EOe5oftAS2Gs1_U&index=4&t=0s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGsnp5yapD4&list=PLvJSNTaFRsEH7BJ9c0EOe5oftAS2Gs1_U&index=2&t=0s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vc1E5CfRfos&list=PLvJSNTaFRsEH7BJ9c0EOe5oftAS2Gs1_U&index=3&t=0s

 

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