Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[Nino]

From an Aviation forum I follow - quite disturbing scenario :
 

Pax infected 5 days ago - 

now infectious and is shedding virus but is currently asymptomatic - 

had left Wuhan and made way to Chengdu.

Flies on widebody from Chengdu with 240 other pax 

Arrives SFO and joins crowds in immigration hall and is in a weaving line past perhaps 500 other pax from various other aircraft hands passport to immigration then hands customs form to customs 

Wends way through SFO having collected bags and makes way through crowd to packed airline lounge.

Wends way through SFO to departure gate for next flight and joins line at gate for flight to DIA 

Flies DIA - ATL in narrow body making a few bathroom trips up and down aircraft and waiting in line for lav to be available 

Arrives ATL and joins crowds in concourse and goes to crowded airline lounge waiting for 2 hours for flight to MIA 

Flies ATL - MIA for conference leaves crowded MIA and goes by bus to hire car then to conference resort hotel for 'meet and greet' with 1000 conference attendees 

After 2 days in conference flies MIA - ATL - LGA same crowded concourses and goes home

Next day wakes up with what could be a cold..... 

 

Yes you can possibly trace the flights - but how many did our notional 'patient zero' actually manage to pass the infection to- not only on the flights? 

How many did they manage to pass the infection to 2 days after they were infected until they realized they were sick? 

Imagine a couple of immigration border protection officers that are infective handling hundreds of passports a day and giving them back. 

This is the reason for the world being a little on edge. 

The spread of a modern equivalent to the 1918 'Spanish Flu' would be infinitely faster and further.

A lot depends on how infectious the disease is, some diseases need less than 10 infectious particles others require thousands.

 

[Duxnutz]

29 minutes ago, nino said:

From an Aviation forum I follow - quite disturbing scenario :
 

Pax infected 5 days ago - 

now infectious and is shedding virus but is currently asymptomatic - 

had left Wuhan and made way to Chengdu.

Flies on widebody from Chengdu with 240 other pax 

Arrives SFO and joins crowds in immigration hall and is in a weaving line past perhaps 500 other pax from various other aircraft hands passport to immigration then hands customs form to customs 

Wends way through SFO having collected bags and makes way through crowd to packed airline lounge.

Wends way through SFO to departure gate for next flight and joins line at gate for flight to DIA 

Flies DIA - ATL in narrow body making a few bathroom trips up and down aircraft and waiting in line for lav to be available 

Arrives ATL and joins crowds in concourse and goes to crowded airline lounge waiting for 2 hours for flight to MIA 

Flies ATL - MIA for conference leaves crowded MIA and goes by bus to hire car then to conference resort hotel for 'meet and greet' with 1000 conference attendees 

After 2 days in conference flies MIA - ATL - LGA same crowded concourses and goes home

Next day wakes up with what could be a cold..... 

 

 

Yes you can possibly trace the flights - but how many did our notional 'patient zero' actually manage to pass the infection to- not only on the flights? 

How many did they manage to pass the infection to 2 days after they were infected until they realized they were sick? 

Imagine a couple of immigration border protection officers that are infective handling hundreds of passports a day and giving them back. 

This is the reason for the world being a little on edge. 

The spread of a modern equivalent to the 1918 'Spanish Flu' would be infinitely faster and further.

 

A lot depends on how infectious the disease is, some diseases need less than 10 infectious particles others require thousands.

 

 

Greeaaat. Looks like it’s time for plan B.

 

 

[Nino]

44 minutes ago, Duxnutz said:

 

Happy I'm retired.

Seen this ( and other pictures of aircrew in bio-hazard suits doing evac flights ) and all I can say is :

my best wishes and professional respect to all aircrews involved.

That FO sure deserves a good cigar after landing.

[Cigar Surgeon]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51318246

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.

"The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems.

The death toll now stands at 170 people in China.

The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 countries outside of the country, but no deaths.

Most cases have emerged in people who have travelled from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.

However, there have been eight cases of human-to-human infection - in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States.

Dr Tedros, speaking at the press conference in Geneva, described the virus as an "unprecedented outbreak" that has been met with an "unprecedented response".

He praised the "extraordinary measures" Chinese authorities had taken to prevent it from spreading.

"Let me be clear, this declaration is not a vote of no confidence in China," he added.

BBC Health correspondent James Gallagher said the WHO will now be able to support lower and middle income countries, helping them strengthen their disease surveillance and prepare them for possible cases.

How unusual is this declaration?

The WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern when there is "an extraordinary event which is determined … to constitute a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease".

It has previously declared five global public health emergencies:

• Swine flu, 2009 -The H1N1 virus spread across the world in 2009, killing more than 200,000 people, and a public health emergency was called to ensure the world was carefully monitoring its spread and able to respond, including with vaccines.
• Polio, 2014 - Although closer than ever to eradication in 2012, polio numbers rose in 2013. An emergency was declared due to fears the global fight against its eradication could face a major setback.
• Zika, 2016 - The WHO declared Zika a public health emergency in 2016 after the disease spread rapidly through the Americas. Although for many Zika symptoms are mild, it can be dangerous for pregnant women and the emergency was called to spur urgent research.
• Ebola, 2014 and 2019 - The deadly disease has twice been declared a public health emergency. The first one lasted from August 2014 to March 2016 as almost 30,000 people were infected and more than 11,000 died in West Africa. The WHO cited "the virulence of the virus, the intensive community and health facility transmission patterns, and the weak health systems" in affected countries. A second emergency was declared last year as an outbreak spread in DR Congo.

How is China handling the outbreak?

Although questions have been raised about transparency, the WHO has praised China's handling of the outbreak. President Xi Jinping has vowed to defeat what he called a "devil" virus.

The central province of Hubei, where nearly all deaths have occurred, is in a state of lockdown. The province of 60 million people is home to Wuhan, the heart of the outbreak.

The city has effectively been sealed off and China has put numerous transport restrictions in place to curb the spread of the virus.

People who have been in Hubei are also being told by their employers to work from home until it is considered safe for them to return.

The virus is affecting China's economy, the world's second-largest, with a growing number of countries advising their citizens to avoid all non-essential travel to the country.

Several international airlines have stopped or scaled back their routes to China and companies like Google, Ikea, Starbucks and Tesla have closed their shops or stopped operations.

[havanaclub]

Now imagine that influenza was highly contagious and spread before showing symptoms with 2 - 3x the mortality rate.
That's the coronavirus.
It is serious and has a real potential to become a pandemic. People shouldn't be panicking, but in the same vein it strikes me that media outlets are downplaying valid concern.

Oh I agree with you, this is serious and poses a huge threat to public health. I was just trying to make a point of how the media can either isolate an issue and amplify it while at the same time, disregarding other life threatening issues.
Interesting you mention the spread of the virus before symptoms are present. I was aware of this but was thrown off when a health official made a press release saying the person who was on the plane was asymptomatic so the risk of transmission to other passengers was low. Didn’t make sense to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Doctortrent]

dust masks sold out at Home Depot 

[Diabolicalpherpher]

The first infection in US was in sweet home Chicago.  Wifey gave it to the hubby.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1126566  

On another note,  apparently Taiwan is limiting export of face masks by travelers.  Here's one way Taiwan is discouraging exporting/smuggling.

 

[OZCUBAN]

I have said this right from the beginning close the borders no one in no one out ,apart from doctors etc the easiest way to contain a virus is stop it spreading 

and in this case stop eating the wildlife 

[SmokyFontaine]

As luck would have it, I was in Korea a couple weeks ago where they have a decent amount of Chinese tourists, then for two different flights, flew through Seattle 4 times in a week and a half. Seattle was the first US reported case. 

In all my travels, the amount of people coughing, hacking, and sneezing is higher than I've ever seen. I just cringe, wash hands like mad, and take an amount of vitamin C that could make my urine classify as a health food supplement. 

[Corylax18]

44 minutes ago, SmokyFontaine said:

As luck would have it, I was in Korea a couple weeks ago where they have a decent amount of Chinese tourists, then for two different flights, flew through Seattle 4 times in a week and a half. Seattle was the first US reported case. 

In all my travels, the amount of people coughing, hacking, and sneezing is higher than I've ever seen. I just cringe, wash hands like mad, and take an amount of vitamin C that could make my urine classify as a health food supplement. 

I know people are disgusting, but there's nothing like a week bouncing around different airports to reinforce just how gross. I've read more than one article saying that most airline tray tables have more germs on them then your average public toilet seat. Yum.

[Zigatoh]

45 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I've read more than one article saying that most airline tray tables have more germs on them then your average public toilet seat. Yum.

Yeah but so does your keyboard, ipad, and game controller - 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/reehines/2015/08/11/5-gadgets-with-more-germs-than-your-toilet-seat/

 

[Mikeltee]

A common cold is more deadly. This new media scare is a problem for 3rd world countries, the elderly, and immunocompromised people who also suffer fatalities from what we consider a common cold. I feel bad for the businesses that suffer because the news media feels that deceiving their subscribers is the best way to keep them subscribing. Experts have stated that if this virus spread throughout the world, 1 million deaths would occur. No one here needs to worry. The world can actually benefit with a few million less people bleeding it dry.

[Duxnutz]

10 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

I know people are disgusting, but there's nothing like a week bouncing around different airports to reinforce just how gross. I've read more than one article saying that most airline tray tables have more germs on them then your average public toilet seat. Yum.

I used to think people were nuts, but after watching how little things are cleaned I regularly wipe down my seat, arm rests and tray table now when riding down the back or even in the cockpit. 

[Connoisseur Kim]

So far in Korea, it seemed to become stable until the cult called Shincheonji worsen the situation. The cult members of Shincheonji hide, lie, refuse, and don't follow government's instructions. Even worse, mayor of Daegu does virtually do nothing compare to other mayors of provinces.

 

Additionally, the far right wing Protestant organization is currently holding the demonstration at Gwanghwamun Square although the mayor of Seoul prohibited the demonstration to prevent the spread of coronavirus. How ironic that the demonstrators in that protest are saying they don't afraid of coronavirus and yet wearing pricey masks (these folks can be fined $3000 due to violation)...

 

Korean people including me are extremely upset about these obnoxious folks' behaviour and coronavirus outbreak. I wish that this outbreak will be stopped ASAP, so I can have herf day with FOH members when our folks visit Korea without worries.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-51572137

[Cubadust]

A common cold is more deadly. This new media scare is a problem for 3rd world countries, the elderly, and immunocompromised people who also suffer fatalities from what we consider a common cold. I feel bad for the businesses that suffer because the news media feels that deceiving their subscribers is the best way to keep them subscribing. Experts have stated that if this virus spread throughout the world, 1 million deaths would occur. No one here needs to worry. The world can actually benefit with a few million less people bleeding it dry.

It’s a media thing, you feel bad for businesses and wouldn’t have a problem with millions in third world countries dying? Please, keep this shit to yourself and out off FoH.

 

 

Skickat från min iPhone med Tapatalk

[...]

On 1/31/2020 at 7:43 PM, Mikeltee said:

A common cold is more deadly. This new media scare is a problem for 3rd world countries, the elderly, and immunocompromised people who also suffer fatalities from what we consider a common cold. I feel bad for the businesses that suffer because the news media feels that deceiving their subscribers is the best way to keep them subscribing. Experts have stated that if this virus spread throughout the world, 1 million deaths would occur. No one here needs to worry. The world can actually benefit with a few million less people bleeding it dry.

Until it’s your daughter or your spouse...

Not certain the insensitivity is adding value here

[nKostyan]

This epidemic has shown how dependent we all are on China. Two of the largest Russian car factories: KAMAZ and AVTOVAZ are experiencing difficulties due to the supply of components from China. In social networks, people laughed for a long time about the fact that Russians do not know how to make spare parts... this was until the same problem was reported by Land Rover concern...

[rcarlson]

On 1/30/2020 at 4:37 PM, havanaclub said:

Oh I agree with you, this is serious and poses a huge threat to public health. I was just trying to make a point of how the media can either isolate an issue and amplify it while at the same time, disregarding other life threatening issues.
Interesting you mention the spread of the virus before symptoms are present. I was aware of this but was thrown off when a health official made a press release saying the person who was on the plane was asymptomatic so the risk of transmission to other passengers was low. Didn’t make sense to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The incubation period, according to China, can be up to 27 days.  This is nearly double the time originally estimated.  This thing is bad, bad, bad.  We couldn't even properly quarantine passengers on a cruise ship.   

[Corylax18]

On 1/30/2020 at 12:38 PM, nino said:

From an Aviation forum I follow - quite disturbing scenario :
 

Pax infected 5 days ago - 

now infectious and is shedding virus but is currently asymptomatic - 

had left Wuhan and made way to Chengdu.

Flies on widebody from Chengdu with 240 other pax 

Arrives SFO and joins crowds in immigration hall and is in a weaving line past perhaps 500 other pax from various other aircraft hands passport to immigration then hands customs form to customs 

Wends way through SFO having collected bags and makes way through crowd to packed airline lounge.

Wends way through SFO to departure gate for next flight and joins line at gate for flight to DIA 

Flies DIA - ATL in narrow body making a few bathroom trips up and down aircraft and waiting in line for lav to be available 

Arrives ATL and joins crowds in concourse and goes to crowded airline lounge waiting for 2 hours for flight to MIA 

Flies ATL - MIA for conference leaves crowded MIA and goes by bus to hire car then to conference resort hotel for 'meet and greet' with 1000 conference attendees 

After 2 days in conference flies MIA - ATL - LGA same crowded concourses and goes home

Next day wakes up with what could be a cold..... 

 

 

Yes you can possibly trace the flights - but how many did our notional 'patient zero' actually manage to pass the infection to- not only on the flights? 

How many did they manage to pass the infection to 2 days after they were infected until they realized they were sick? 

Imagine a couple of immigration border protection officers that are infective handling hundreds of passports a day and giving them back. 

This is the reason for the world being a little on edge. 

The spread of a modern equivalent to the 1918 'Spanish Flu' would be infinitely faster and further.

 

A lot depends on how infectious the disease is, some diseases need less than 10 infectious particles others require thousands.

 

 

You just wrote the opening scene for the coronavirus movie! I'd get some copyright protection on that, you will make a mint! ?

I've flown through DIA twice (along with a few million other people) since this guy transited through the airport. Can anyone guess how many people have contracted the Virus at DIA since? Or anywhere that this guy travelled? I'll give you a hint, its somewhere less than 1 individual. 

 

Does everyone remember when the Ebola was the one that was gunna get all of us? A Doctor, who had been in Africa fighting ebola, contracted the disease then flew home and galivanted around Brooklyn/Williamsburg for 3 days with the disease. Sticking his fingers in bowling balls at a public bowling alley, riding the subway, literally doing all he could to spark a pandemic in NYC. But, somehow (grace of god?) we're all still here. 

For all the people feigning outrage by someone telling the truth, I ask why? The coronavirus' WORLDWIDE effect, still hasn't hit the scale of a typical Flu season in the just United States. Fewer people with the disease, slower contraction/rate of spread, FAR fewer deaths. Where are you every single year around this time when TENS of THOUSANDS of people are dying from the flu? Watching the "news" and getting stirred up about something else that you cant control and doesn't affect you? 

Does anybody here realize that roughly 80,000 US citizens died of the flue in the 17-18 season? That's more deaths than TOTAL WORLD WIDE cases of the coronavirus. So why doesn't the world economy go into a tail spin every October-march?  Everybody needs to get a grip and a flu shot. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flu-deaths-u-s-estimates-80000-americans-died-of-flu-and-its-complications-last-winter-2018-09-26/

[rcarlson]

1 hour ago, Corylax18 said:

For all the people feigning outrage by someone telling the truth, I ask why? The coronavirus' WORLDWIDE effect, still hasn't hit the scale of a typical Flu season in the just United States. Fewer people with the disease, slower contraction/rate of spread, FAR fewer deaths. Where are you every single year around this time when TENS of THOUSANDS of people are dying from the flu? Watching the "news" and getting stirred up about something else that you cant control and doesn't affect you? 

Does anybody here realize that roughly 80,000 US citizens died of the flue in the 17-18 season? That's more deaths than TOTAL WORLD WIDE cases of the coronavirus. So why doesn't the world economy go into a tail spin every October-march?  Everybody needs to get a grip and a flu shot. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flu-deaths-u-s-estimates-80000-americans-died-of-flu-and-its-complications-last-winter-2018-09-26/

Corylax, I'm with you to some extent, particularly when it comes to magnified media-driven crises and simulated moral outrage.  But there are some differences to consider before dismissing the concern.  Saw this recently:

  

 

Being from Atlanta, I have a number of acquaintances that are with the CDC (in varying capacities).  One was on the front lines, and was at the tip of the spear in the Ebola outbreak.  Had some fascinating cigar-length discussions with him when it was all going down.  Before learning more, I thought he had to have a deathwish going hands-on to the African outbreak sites.  But what he told me about the real threat and the ability to contain it proved to be true. 

Spoke to my CDC friend again recently, and his take on COVID19 are not as comforting.  Of course, this is anecdotal and I don't mean to hold it out as deserving any more weight than to what it's entitled.  And Lord knows, the abysmal track record of reporting on doomsday scenarios means we all should view another with skepticism.  I just think comparisons to other virus outbreaks is probably a mistake.    

[PigFish]

... should have been called the Robusto virus.

-the Pig

[T.52]

Here’s how it is impacting me.  My wife is sick.  Running nose, sneezing, coughing. We needed to drive about 4 hours away this weekend.  I tried to find a germ mask so she could wear it in the car and not get me or kids sick!  No luck finding masks anywhere near me here in the US.  Not even dust masks at Home Depot.  (Then it occurred to me I’m a dummy wasting my time because she sleeps next to me at night.)

[Cubadust]

17 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

You just wrote the opening scene for the coronavirus movie! I'd get some copyright protection on that, you will make a mint! ?

I've flown through DIA twice (along with a few million other people) since this guy transited through the airport. Can anyone guess how many people have contracted the Virus at DIA since? Or anywhere that this guy travelled? I'll give you a hint, its somewhere less than 1 individual. 

 

Does everyone remember when the Ebola was the one that was gunna get all of us? A Doctor, who had been in Africa fighting ebola, contracted the disease then flew home and galivanted around Brooklyn/Williamsburg for 3 days with the disease. Sticking his fingers in bowling balls at a public bowling alley, riding the subway, literally doing all he could to spark a pandemic in NYC. But, somehow (grace of god?) we're all still here. 

For all the people feigning outrage by someone telling the truth, I ask why? The coronavirus' WORLDWIDE effect, still hasn't hit the scale of a typical Flu season in the just United States. Fewer people with the disease, slower contraction/rate of spread, FAR fewer deaths. Where are you every single year around this time when TENS of THOUSANDS of people are dying from the flu? Watching the "news" and getting stirred up about something else that you cant control and doesn't affect you? 

Does anybody here realize that roughly 80,000 US citizens died of the flue in the 17-18 season? That's more deaths than TOTAL WORLD WIDE cases of the coronavirus. So why doesn't the world economy go into a tail spin every October-march?  Everybody needs to get a grip and a flu shot. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flu-deaths-u-s-estimates-80000-americans-died-of-flu-and-its-complications-last-winter-2018-09-26/

Just out of curiosity, what exactly is it in the news coverage that's bothering you?

[Corylax18]

6 hours ago, Cubadust said:

Just out of curiosity, what exactly is it in the news coverage that's bothering you?

The fact that most of it (95% +) is unsubstantiated hype at best and outright, willful lies in many cases. 

Look at the video @rcarlson posted a few posts above this one. First, it has no context/reference to the spread rate of diseases that we are all familiar with already. if the common flu was included in that graphic, nobody would be looking at it, because ALL the other diseases(covid 19 inculded) would be immeasurably small in comparison. That graphic and most of the news coverage has been designed to scare you, not to educate you. Because scary boosts ratings, boring old facts don't. 

There are typically about 25-30 MILLION flu hospitalizations per year, in US alone, the number of cases is even higher than that. so in an average 6 month flu season that's more than 4 MILLION hospitalization cases A MONTH.

Or roughly 100x the growth rate of COVID 19, using only verified hospitalizations, not even total flu cases. That's for a disease that we already "understand" and have a vaccine for. We don't know shit about this disease and we've managed to hold the growth/spread and death rates orders of magnitude below a disease that runs rampant through humanity every year. 

Its the same with deaths too. As I stated in a previous post over 80,000 people died from the flu in the 17-18 US season. Or about 13,333 per MONTH, again, in that same 100x rate over the Covid 19 viruses' current rate. 

We are all being lied to. Why? I don't know, but what a great distraction from the Human Rights protests in Hong Kong, or Epstein's murder, or failed "trade negotiations", etc. etc.

[Corylax18]

22 hours ago, rcarlson said:

Corylax, I'm with you to some extent, particularly when it comes to magnified media-driven crises and simulated moral outrage.  But there are some differences to consider before dismissing the concern.  Saw this recently:

  

 

Being from Atlanta, I have a number of acquaintances that are with the CDC (in varying capacities).  One was on the front lines, and was at the tip of the spear in the Ebola outbreak.  Had some fascinating cigar-length discussions with him when it was all going down.  Before learning more, I thought he had to have a deathwish going hands-on to the African outbreak sites.  But what he told me about the real threat and the ability to contain it proved to be true. 

Spoke to my CDC friend again recently, and his take on COVID19 are not as comforting.  Of course, this is anecdotal and I don't mean to hold it out as deserving any more weight than to what it's entitled.  And Lord knows, the abysmal track record of reporting on doomsday scenarios means we all should view another with skepticism.  I just think comparisons to other virus outbreaks is probably a mistake.    

That graphic was created by someone who is either willfully ignorant or has a vested interest in continuing the hype. It is completely devoid of context and falls apart pretty quickly when analyzed against the spread of other common diseases. (Mainly the flu) 

The real Virus is in our Minds. People spread falsehoods (like the graphic above) without verifying or fact checking them themselves, then all of a sudden it becomes "fact." 

I completely agree with you that comparing this to other virus outbreaks is a mistake, if your goal is to keep scaring people. But a quick/dirty comparison to the good old flu virus should make anybody feel a lot better about this "epidemic."