Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?


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I just heard a news from Korean crossing border shipping forum that Amazon stopped international shipping due to COVID-19 outbreak. Lucky that I obtained the mighty Colibri V-Cut before COVID-19 breaks loose! I'll resume Coolidor project as soon as Amazon recommences international shipping and the price of Coleman 6 Xtreme 150qt Marine Cooler decreases significantly (it decreased week by week to $86, but suddenly increased to $112 after COVID-19 outbreak became serious in USA). ?

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The impact of coronavirus where I am?   Hmm.  Where to begin.  Last weekend, when I left the hospital on Friday night, we had 9 cases in our ICU.  When I came in on Monday, the ICU was completely

Might be irreverent after I posted the currently existing horror scenarios back on page 1 and 2 of this thread on January 30th - ages ago in this fast developing news circle. So, to end my commen

I’m ready, come what may...  

Current situation of private gyms in Korea (the government is already planned to close all clubs, gyms, etc soon). There were some folks at gym, but not many as before COVID-19 outbreak (something like ghost city).

Me in Gym #1Me in Gym #2

Some goofy photo edit with Snow, AR camera app ?:

Goofy Me

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10 hours ago, TheGipper said:

 

It's not an argument.  It is just a question that I don't have the answer to.  Where are the graphs of seasonally-aligned mortality rates (by all causes) overlaid with current all-cause death counts?  It's a simple graph that will give us the best picture of what is happening.  It's an obvious thing to collect and publish, yet I don't see it anywhere.

We have 13,069 deaths worldwide since January 1 directly attributed to the virus.  Total background world death rate over the same time period (not seasonally adjusted) is 12.56 million deaths.  Are global death rates on a same-day-of-year stable enough for us to see the presumed 13k excess deaths?  Do we actually have 13k excess deaths, or are there some percentage of these deaths that are "borrowing" from the background rate?

Again, it's not an argument or an assertion, it is just a question that I have.  And no one in mass media seems to be asking let alone answering it.

I think you are right on the money my friend.

Some of our peers do not understand the concept of a pipeline. Death occurs every day, every year! I am not trivializing anyone's death... but it is a constant result of life. On any given day we do not get the death count in Italy, China nor anywhere else except in a war zone. I believe that is the point being made.

Statistically X people will die this year. So the question being asked is this. Does the novel virus actually represent a case where there will be 1.xx times the nominal year death count or not?

My question is not cold, nor insensitive. It is simply exploring the data for facts about the mortality of the virus in a sea of what will be total mortality, with our without the virus.

Carry on! -Piggy

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1 hour ago, PigFish said:

I think you are right on the money my friend.

Some of our peers do not understand the concept of a pipeline. Death occurs every day, every year! I am not trivializing anyone's death... but it is a constant result of life. On any given day we do not get the death count in Italy, China nor anywhere else except in a war zone. I believe that is the point being made.

Statistically X people will die this year. So the question being asked is this. Does the novel virus actually represent a case where there will be 1.xx times the nominal year death count or not?

My question is not cold, nor insensitive. It is simply exploring the data for facts about the mortality of the virus in a sea of what will be total mortality, with our without the virus.

Carry on! -Piggy

True,  but when they have to be hauling bodies to the morgue for cremation in military convoys...….. 

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True,  but when they have to be hauling bodies to the morgue for cremation in military convoys...….. 
Yep. You can talk stats all day but the pictures dont lie. If it was just a nasty flu you wouldn't need the army. Not saying that they dont have a point about how things are being counted.

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I truly hope those alleging an international conspiracy re: COVID-19 death totals are merely being internet irresponsible vs. being meatspace irresponsible. 

Take a quick look at this CDC video comparing obituaries from before and after the outbreak in Italy. 

Stay safe. 

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1 hour ago, PigFish said:

Statistically X people will die this year. So the question being asked is this. Does the novel virus actually represent a case where there will be 1.xx times the nominal year death count or not?

My question is not cold, nor insensitive. It is simply exploring the data for facts about the mortality of the virus in a sea of what will be total mortality, with our without the virus.

Carry on! -Piggy

Ever the outlier Ray!  I feel positive if there was some council vehicle mounted with tannoy speakers outside your house commanding

"Everyone outside for a Government ordered BBQ, Ice cold non-alcholic beer on tap. Cabs of perfectly aged Partagas Lonsdales MUST! I repeat MUST, be accepted"     

that you would be inside, in a cold sweat behind your sofa, with the lights off, waiting for the mandatory party to pass. 

I'm not for one minute suggesting you would be part of, say an ever growing group of people who believe things like vaccines are poison.   But why oh why? must everything these days be met with some degree of "yeah right!, I'll make up my own mind on that thank you very much".    It's really sad to hear currently in the UK that the draconian measures the government feel 100% must be adopted in order to save lives, has only a projected 50% adoption rate. 

50% of people in the UK couldn't care less,  that their actions could put others at risk!??  I find that really depressing. 

Liberty and freedom are wonderful things, but they can, if distilled and grafted away from a sense of social responsibility, and care for you fellow man/women, actually just turn into a shit show of everyone for themselves. 

As the undisputed "king of the graphs" you might find this article useful in terms of mitigation and projected deaths

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

I hope you and yours stay safe Ray.  take care

 

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I cooked bacon and eggs this morning, and the effects of this Sunday feast are profound. I feel much better about the prospect of domestic isolation, and yes, I do wish more people would agree with Ken.

The time to hoard bacon is now.

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1 hour ago, helix said:

True,  but when they have to be hauling bodies to the morgue for cremation in military convoys...….. 

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

 

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5 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

 

All you need to do, is run a story suggesting,  Bigfoot, Yeti's, Nessy, Lord Lukan, and Shergar are all infected with Corona Virus,  and on the loose.     This will scare them witless 

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9 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

 

Like the old saying goes "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink."

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11 hours ago, Fuzz said:

Correction, non-essential services are to be locked down in 48 hours. There is no indication how long the lock down will remain.

Yes, in the next 48 hours is what I meant, of course. However, updates are so consistent that this news will soon be updated with further shutdowns I'm sure. I had mentioned schools will shut from Tuesday, there's now word that the NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, will announce that schools will transition to on-line classes from Tuesday. Then again, she may not. I think I'll just wait a few hours and stop listening to media speculation! ?

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25 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

I'd kind of said I was done with this but if I may...

I don't believe anybody doubts the reality or severity. But what I think some members are saying is that deaths are being attributed directly to the virus when in reality the underlying conditions are the main factor. Most of the newscasts where I am are quick to mention the underlying causes, but the headline has always been c19 death.

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not sure if anybody has shared this, but it's an interesting little article/interview:

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

There's not too much here that we haven't all heard before I suppose, but it's interesting to see it all presented in a format that isn't the evening news... a few excerpts:

 

"Larry Brilliant says he doesn’t have a crystal ball. But 14 years ago, Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, spoke to a TED audience and described what the next pandemic would look like. At the time, it sounded almost too horrible to take seriously. “A billion people would get sick," he said. “As many as 165 million people would die. There would be a global recession and depression, and the cost to our economy of $1 to $3 trillion would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying, because so many more people would lose their jobs and their health care benefits, that the consequences are almost unthinkable... Now the unthinkable is here, and Brilliant, the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics, is sharing expertise with those on the front lines."

"...there's nothing in the virology that makes me frightened that we won’t get a vaccine in 12 to 18 months. Eventually, we will get to the epidemiologist gold ring... That means, A, a large enough quantity of us have caught the disease and become immune. And B, we have a vaccine. "

"I'm in the age group that has a one in seven mortality rate if I get it. If you're not worried, you're not paying attention. But I'm not scared. I firmly believe that the steps that we're taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds. I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to cut off, reduce, or truncate the spread. Everybody needs to remember: This is not a zombie apocalypse. It's not a mass extinction event."

full article:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

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31 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Ross ,I honestly don't understand the point of it. 

Is there a decimal point adjustment required? Perhaps it is simply that medical teams are too busy right now to reassess the paperwork?

Let's say 75 people in that demographic would die over a normal Saturday in Italy.  That leaves 700 that did. Does that really add any value right now? Does it make people feel better?

So firstly, it's very important to say that I'm not trying to speak for anyone (should really go without saying). I'm not really looking at the math, so to speak. I am kind of trying to look at the bigger picture of things, and not succumb to the fear mongers. How things are reported vs. the reality. I've already stated some of my beliefs. The more people that are tested, the more that show positive - no crap. All of this just continues to show me how weak humans really are - not necessarily physically, but in mind and spirit.

 

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If it makes anyone feel better about the numbers, a lot of deaths are attributed to an underlying health condition such as metastatic cancer when the person actually died of something else like an infection. Arguing about what to put on the death certificate doesn't help anyone. 

If the projections are accurate then in the UK without social distancing and measures like closing schools 250,000 people die of covid19, with them it's 20,000.

I'm staying home with my two kids until I absolutely have to go out for food.

Funny thing is it's actually really easy these days, Skype, online gaming, Google classroom and a world of online educational resources, people like Joe Wicks doing daily exercise classes for kids. Imagine social isolation when we were kids. 

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1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

I am no lover of media or government mate. 

Those pictures on the weekend of  Italian nurses with bruised faces as a result of double shifts with masks on, shows me how strong the human race can be "in mind and spirit". 

They were begging the world  for a frontline hand. I think we can do better than to question the seriousness of their situation by looking for statistical "Aha! moments".   That can wait. 

 

I've not seen the pics, but I doubt anybody is questioning the seriousness of their situation. I'd certainly hope that their neighbors stepped up to help. The aha moments look to be a two way street.

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