Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[rcarlson]

32 minutes ago, Fuzz said:

Say what you will about China, but when they want to contain something, they go all out. More countries should take heed.

Spock was right, "The good of the many, outweigh the good of the few".

 

 

Funny thing about those authoritarian regimes and containing things.   

[Deeg]

Even with Italy giving the rest of Europe and the States a free preview of what happens when you wait too long to act, this "almost everyone who isn't old or has underlying conditions will be fine" myth still persists.

The problem with giving timelines is twofold as I see it.  First, no one knows the exact timelines because these situations are incredibly fluid and can change by the hour, never mind the day or week.  And second, if the government gave an honest assessment of how long the sorts of lockdowns we're seeing now would likely need to be in place to prevent another Italy, people would be discouraged - because it's going to take a long time.  What you do to fight this outbreak doesn't help you tomorrow - it helps you in three weeks.  That's a reality, and it's a very hard sell.  Especially when you have politicians lacking both foresight and courage.

Fact is, you saw the UK initially take this approach of "we can't screw the economy for the sake of a few old people".  Dominic Cummings pushed it in private, and he normally gets his way where matters of policy are concerned.  Eventually the Imperial College report proved so horrifying in its assessment of what this approach would wreak in the UK that Johnson changed track, but he frittered away incredibly precious time he didn't have to lose.  You're starting to see some politicians like Dan Patrick float this Cummings model as a trial balloon in the U.S. - it'll be interesting to see how it goes over.

This is not an all or nothing situation.  Some COVIDiots ignoring lockdowns and endangering others is bad, but it doesn't invalidate the good that comes from most people observing them.  Containment is lost - that ship is sailed.  But anything that can be done to slow the spread is invaluable, because every week the health care system stays afloat is getting us closer to effective treatments being broadly available, and a week where those who need critical care to survive might be able to receive it. 

Also, South Korea is not an authoritarian regime.  And they're in single-digits in COVID deaths per day right now.

 

 

[rcarlson]

28 minutes ago, Deeg said:

Also, South Korea is not an authoritarian regime.  And they're in single-digits in COVID deaths per day right now.

Indeed.  And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that China did to control the epidemic.  

[99call]

13 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Indeed.  And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that China did to control the epidemic.  

I huge part of the reason why the countries that are employing draconian/authoritarian measures are doing so,   Is because they initially wanted to run the heard immunity/keep the economy running approach, then when realising the scale and severity of the potential deaths, switched to lockdown. 

In essence if they had been less obsessed with the markets/business, earlier on, they would be in better shape with more freedoms now. 

     

[Connoisseur Kim]

Indeed.  And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that China did to control the epidemic.  

Much agreed! I myself feel proud of the actions of the Korean government against COVID-19! However, most of the Korean news companies and far right wings are still being reckless by posting and broadcasting fake news...

 

[Deeg]

6 minutes ago, 99call said:

I huge part of the reason why the countries that are employing draconian/authoritarian measures are doing so,   Is because they initially wanted to run the heard immunity/keep the economy running approach, then when realising the scale and severity of the potential deaths, switched to lockdown. 

In essence if they had been less obsessed with the markets/business, earlier on, they would be in better shape with more freedoms now. 

     

In fairness to China (which is obviously an authoritarian regime) the main reason South Korea never had to impose the kind of draconian measures China did in Wuhan is because Wuhan was the canary in the coal mine.  Korea - to its massive credit - got out in front of this (mainly with testing) more than any other reasonably large country.  Once China realized the extent of the danger they didn't have the option to approach the problem like Korea did.  And if they hadn't imposed the measures they did in Wuhan (authoritarian though they were) a lot more people both inside China and out would already be dead.

The tragedy is that the rest of the world (apart from South Korea and a couple of city-states like Singapore) frittered away the opportunity China's draconian measures bought them, even as the WHO was begging them not to.

 

[99call]

1 minute ago, Deeg said:

The tragedy is that the rest of the world (apart from South Korea and a couple of city-states like Singapore) frittered away the opportunity China's draconian measures bought them, even as the WHO was begging them not to.

Yes, It was the UK and other such countries post China containment that I was referring to, not China. 

I think this table of measures really lays it out. 

[rcarlson]

1 minute ago, Deeg said:

In fairness to China (which is obviously an authoritarian regime) the main reason South Korea never had to impose the kind of draconian measures China did in Wuhan is because Wuhan was the canary in the coal mine.  Korea - to its massive credit - got out in front of this (mainly with testing) more than any other reasonably large country.  Once China realized the extent of the danger they didn't have the option to approach the problem like Korea did.  And if they hadn't imposed the measures they did in Wuhan (authoritarian though they were) a lot more people both inside China and out would already be dead.

The tragedy is that the rest of the world (apart from South Korea and a couple of city-states like Singapore) frittered away the opportunity China's draconian measures bought them, even as the WHO was begging them not to.

 

China itself frittered away the opportunities to contain for its own benefit and the benefit of the rest of the world by suppressing its knowledge of the crisis.

Obviously, one size does not fit all.  Population density, behavioral patterns, economic conditions, access to treatment etc. etc. etc. are all factors.  And incidentally, one of the reasons that China's reports on the infection rate should be discounted is because they stopped testing for it.   

14 minutes ago, 99call said:

I huge part of the reason why the countries that are employing draconian/authoritarian measures are doing so,   Is because they initially wanted to run the heard immunity/keep the economy running approach, then when realising the scale and severity of the potential deaths, switched to lockdown. 

In essence if they had been less obsessed with the markets/business, earlier on, they would be in better shape with more freedoms now. 

     

Perhaps as an aside, I am not dismissive of the impact of an economic downturn and isolationism as a huge consideration in the U.S.  It is a fact of life here and most other countries that people stuck in miserable conditions they have no power to change will engage in pathological behavior very quickly, and with god-awful consequences. Look at any inner city ghetto or dying rural town and you'll see it in all its glory.  The lurking toll of economic devastation and social isolation is incomprensible and unreported.   

 

[rcarlson]

32 minutes ago, LonesomeHabanoAficionado said:

Much agreed! I myself feel proud of the actions of the Korean government against COVID-19! However, most of the Korean news companies and far right wings are still being reckless by posting and broadcasting fake news...

 

I'll be damned if I didn't hear the exact opposite thing in a discussion with an acquaintance in Seoul.  Hell if I know, but I try my best to  avoid agenda-driven media coverage, which is really an impossible feat.  

[Connoisseur Kim]

I'll be damned if I didn't hear the exact opposite thing in a discussion with an acquaintance in Seoul.  Hell if I know, but I try my best to  avoid agenda-driven media coverage, which is really an impossible feat.  

Yeah, I'm really upset about the behaviour of the most of Korean media companies (and followers of these companies). Even worse, they also purposely manipulating data, deleting and editing their articles, etc (the reason why I don't watch news from them anymore)...

 

[99call]

9 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Perhaps as an aside, I am not dismissive of the impact of an economic downturn and isolationism as a huge consideration in the U.S.  It is a fact of life here and most other countries that people stuck in miserable conditions they have no power to change will engage in pathological behavior very quickly, and with god-awful consequences. Look at any inner city ghetto or dying rural town and you'll see it in all its glory.  The lurking toll of economic devastation and social isolation is incomprensible and unreported.  

I respect this, but I guess my point is, the leading economists are suggesting that, the die is cast, to further focus on this months pay cheque, (and go out and spread the virus), has direct cause and affect in ensuring that, that very same individual will be exponentially negatively effected because of their own actions.   

 

 

[Riverstyx]

Finally, an article that explains what I've been saying all along: this isn't risk, it's uncertainty.  I applaud all of those with outlier thoughts to which I disagree with - I like to keep an open mind and consider alternatives, regardless of how much some ideas make me cringe.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/risk-uncertainty-and-coronavirus-11584975787

 

[rcarlson]

11 minutes ago, 99call said:

I respect this, but I guess my point is, the leading economists are suggesting that, the die is cast, to further focus on this months pay cheque, (and go out and spread the virus), has direct cause and affect in ensuring that, that very same individual will be exponentially negatively effected because of their own actions.   

 

 

That's really too sweeping of a statement to reply to, with one exception.  I am absolutely confident that there are "leading economists" that would beg to differ.with whatever conclusions you have seen/heard.  Absolute (non volitional) isolation for indefinite periods versus the long-term societal impact of it is not binary and probably beyond any meaningful metric with anything that is known right now (which ain't a hell of a lot).    

[Mr. Japan]

A fact : Day 16 of lockdown, only consolation plenty food and cigars.

A fact : No light at end of the tunnel, in Italy.

A fact :   Other Countries are between 2 to 4 weeks behind  Italy in fighting this enemy.

A fact : The reason is that Italy did not believe the Chinese government ( even with late communication ) and other Countries did not believe Italy, blaming as the usual exaggerating . French on newspaper wrote CoronaPizza, British said that lockdown was a good excuse for Italians to stay off work, Austria, Germany would have been better to just close their mouth and USA ... is in the hands of a great liar.

A fact : the world is packed with idiots.

A fact : the world will survive and unfortunately the idiots will not die. So after 6 months we will be where we where six months ago.

my 0,2 cents.

[JamesKPolkEsq]

What is clear now:

 

1. The virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions taken will only have an effect weeks later

2. The virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively

3. The virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support

4. Early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth

5. Stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.

 

Where are we now?

 

1. World governments have instituted a number of measures that they previously called "unscientific", but have not mandated them.

2. Many western countries are far, far into the exponential curve both in deaths and critical care numbers, and there is at least two weeks more growth until any of the half-hearted measures taken might kick in.

3. We do not have sufficient testing capability for even hospital patients, who sometimes wait days for a test result. There are not enough tests for anyone in the community, or any healthcare workers who might have symptoms.

4. Hospitals are scrambling to produce surge capacity, and several smaller hospitals are now overwhelmed with COVID and out of ventilators.

5. There is clearly not enough PPE and we are rushing to secure supplies.

Will the political classes suffer? Hell no. It will be the vulnerable in the population, the unlucky young, and the medical staff at the front line.

When the final counts return in months or a years time, don't let them get away with it

[Ethernut]

Wife and I are in lockdown in Kentucky. Choosing to shelter in place. Weather looks to be conducive for cigars late this week. ...and I'm looking forward to it. Hope all is well with the lot of you!

[dominattorney]

I hate to say this, but there is a bit of boy who cried wolf at issue here. My mistrust in general of the government causes me to regard with suspicion any action taken "for my own good." This is surely unfortunate as I am a thinking, rational human being who is more than capable of understanding that certain times there are actions that need to be taken in my best interest. I cannot come to grips with the cognitive dissonance long enough to make any sense of the issue. I cast blame on the media for over blowing the fear statistics though I have found publications in The Lancet journal to be far more even handed. The situation appears critical under any circumstances.

I do however wonder whether current shelter in place orders will have any meaningful effect, given the late hour of their initiation, and the necessity for people to leave there homes to earn a living and secure supplies. I know one thing for sure, if these measures were taken in a panic and later data revealed to our masters they were unnecessary, we will never know.

 Bold prediction: governments have a vested interest in the mortality rate made available to the public being artificially higher than the virus' actual mortality rate. I am seeing these things happen behind the scenes first hand, with tests only being administered to high risk groups who are symptomatic. We will never know the full extent of the pandemic. This too is suspicious to me, though I remain mindful there are legitimate reasons for handling things in this manner to get services to those most in need. 

[99call]

To all the non believers,  don't worry..... 99% of the dead are in fact just:

A, Resting

B, Stunned   or 

C, Pining for the fjords

 

[Cubadust]

1 hour ago, dominattorney said:

Bold prediction: governments have a vested interest in the mortality rate made available to the public being artificially higher than the virus' actual mortality rate. I am seeing these things happen behind the scenes first hand, with tests only being administered to high risk groups who are symptomatic. We will never know the full extent of the pandemic. This too is suspicious to me, though I remain mindful there are legitimate reasons for handling things in this manner to get services to those most in need. 

But we've known from the beginning that it's a fairly low mortality rate. There's no conspiracy here.

[dominattorney]

41 minutes ago, Cubadust said:

But we've known from the beginning that it's a fairly low mortality rate. There's no conspiracy here.

No conspiracy, but a fairly open secret that people responsible for shuttering the economy have a vested interest in protecting. 

[Puros Y Vino]

38 minutes ago, db13 said:

Sounds to me like the country will be fine and resume back to normal by Easter!

Which country? USA?  This morning total case count was 45K.  Eight hours later it now stands at 53K. And with so much testing still to be done, there's a lot more downs than ups I'm afraid. 

 

[Ken Gargett]

22 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Just came back from a 5 km run as the gym is closed. 

If this goes on much longer, the run is going to kill me way before virus.   Bloody hell 

did not know we had any roads that went downhill for 5 kms. 

[alloy]

2 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

did not know we had any roads that went downhill for 5 kms. 

downhill both ways? ?

[The Squiggler]

2 hours ago, bundwallah said:

Which country?

I detected a bit of sarcasm there.  It stands to be a fairly grim Easter (unless you're in South Korea, in which case you probably won't be celebrating Easter anyway).

[Hammer Smokin']

world is trying to figure out what to do.

no light at the end of the tunnel.

'cept for 'murica, where Easter is when their disease dies.