Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?


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18 minutes ago, 7kingsguy said:

Give it a couple of weeks and death will be on the doorstep. By then everyone will know someone who is infected. That should shock people into staying at home.

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Although I certainly agree that many more people will die in the USA this week and will scare everyone to listen for a time, I don't think in this case it will extend that period that much longer.  All of the data is showing that over 99% of those who succumb to this are those with underlying health issues or the elderly (who nearly 100% of have underlying issues).  Of course there are exceptions, but they mainly appear to be just that, exceptions.  

As more and more celebrities and politicians get this and survive, most people are going to weigh the risks of catching the virus being less for themselves and their families then noting having income.  Add to that that experts are saying up to 80% of the population may need to catch this, and people will get into the mode of better now then later. 

At that point in time, nothing the government can say or do will hold people back.  It may take longer in some countries then others.  

I think we need to start thinking about protecting the elderly and sick while assuming people are going to get back to their lives.  

I might add that economic damage is not always recoverable.  I fully expect the rate of suicides and drug overdoses to increase during this period, most due to loosing your job or business.  Family separations, prostitution (to make ends meat) and other vice crimes are likely to increase as well.  

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The impact of coronavirus where I am?   Hmm.  Where to begin.  Last weekend, when I left the hospital on Friday night, we had 9 cases in our ICU.  When I came in on Monday, the ICU was completely

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7 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

Although I certainly agree that many more people will die in the USA this week and will scare everyone to listen for a time, I don't think in this case it will extend that period that much longer.  All of the data is showing that over 99% of those who succumb to this are those with underlying health issues or the elderly (who nearly 100% of have underlying issues).  Of course there are exceptions, but they mainly appear to be just that, exceptions.  

As more and more celebrities and politicians get this and survive, most people are going to weigh the risks of catching the virus being less for themselves and their families then noting having income.  Add to that that experts are saying up to 80% of the population may need to catch this, and people will get into the mode of better now then later. 

At that point in time, nothing the government can say or do will hold people back.  It may take longer in some countries then others.  

I think we need to start thinking about protecting the elderly and sick while assuming people are going to get back to their lives.  

I might add that economic damage is not always recoverable.  I fully expect the rate of suicides and drug overdoses to increase during this period, most due to loosing your job or business.  Family separations, prostitution (to make ends meat) and other vice crimes are likely to increase as well.  

Domestic violence is also expected to rise significantly.

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32 minutes ago, Fuzz said:

Say what you will about China, but when they want to contain something, they go all out. More countries should take heed.

Spock was right, "The good of the many, outweigh the good of the few".

 

 

Funny thing about those authoritarian regimes and containing things.   

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Even with Italy giving the rest of Europe and the States a free preview of what happens when you wait too long to act, this "almost everyone who isn't old or has underlying conditions will be fine" myth still persists.

The problem with giving timelines is twofold as I see it.  First, no one knows the exact timelines because these situations are incredibly fluid and can change by the hour, never mind the day or week.  And second, if the government gave an honest assessment of how long the sorts of lockdowns we're seeing now would likely need to be in place to prevent another Italy, people would be discouraged - because it's going to take a long time.  What you do to fight this outbreak doesn't help you tomorrow - it helps you in three weeks.  That's a reality, and it's a very hard sell.  Especially when you have politicians lacking both foresight and courage.

Fact is, you saw the UK initially take this approach of "we can't screw the economy for the sake of a few old people".  Dominic Cummings pushed it in private, and he normally gets his way where matters of policy are concerned.  Eventually the Imperial College report proved so horrifying in its assessment of what this approach would wreak in the UK that Johnson changed track, but he frittered away incredibly precious time he didn't have to lose.  You're starting to see some politicians like Dan Patrick float this Cummings model as a trial balloon in the U.S. - it'll be interesting to see how it goes over.

This is not an all or nothing situation.  Some COVIDiots ignoring lockdowns and endangering others is bad, but it doesn't invalidate the good that comes from most people observing them.  Containment is lost - that ship is sailed.  But anything that can be done to slow the spread is invaluable, because every week the health care system stays afloat is getting us closer to effective treatments being broadly available, and a week where those who need critical care to survive might be able to receive it. 

Also, South Korea is not an authoritarian regime.  And they're in single-digits in COVID deaths per day right now.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Deeg said:

Also, South Korea is not an authoritarian regime.  And they're in single-digits in COVID deaths per day right now.

Indeed.  And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that China did to control the epidemic.  

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13 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Indeed.  And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that China did to control the epidemic.  

I huge part of the reason why the countries that are employing draconian/authoritarian measures are doing so,   Is because they initially wanted to run the heard immunity/keep the economy running approach, then when realising the scale and severity of the potential deaths, switched to lockdown. 

In essence if they had been less obsessed with the markets/business, earlier on, they would be in better shape with more freedoms now. 

     

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Indeed.  And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that China did to control the epidemic.  

Much agreed! I myself feel proud of the actions of the Korean government against COVID-19! However, most of the Korean news companies and far right wings are still being reckless by posting and broadcasting fake news...

 

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1 minute ago, Deeg said:

The tragedy is that the rest of the world (apart from South Korea and a couple of city-states like Singapore) frittered away the opportunity China's draconian measures bought them, even as the WHO was begging them not to.

Yes, It was the UK and other such countries post China containment that I was referring to, not China. 

I think this table of measures really lays it out. 

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1 minute ago, Deeg said:

In fairness to China (which is obviously an authoritarian regime) the main reason South Korea never had to impose the kind of draconian measures China did in Wuhan is because Wuhan was the canary in the coal mine.  Korea - to its massive credit - got out in front of this (mainly with testing) more than any other reasonably large country.  Once China realized the extent of the danger they didn't have the option to approach the problem like Korea did.  And if they hadn't imposed the measures they did in Wuhan (authoritarian though they were) a lot more people both inside China and out would already be dead.

The tragedy is that the rest of the world (apart from South Korea and a couple of city-states like Singapore) frittered away the opportunity China's draconian measures bought them, even as the WHO was begging them not to.

 

China itself frittered away the opportunities to contain for its own benefit and the benefit of the rest of the world by suppressing its knowledge of the crisis.

Obviously, one size does not fit all.  Population density, behavioral patterns, economic conditions, access to treatment etc. etc. etc. are all factors.  And incidentally, one of the reasons that China's reports on the infection rate should be discounted is because they stopped testing for it.   

14 minutes ago, 99call said:

I huge part of the reason why the countries that are employing draconian/authoritarian measures are doing so,   Is because they initially wanted to run the heard immunity/keep the economy running approach, then when realising the scale and severity of the potential deaths, switched to lockdown. 

In essence if they had been less obsessed with the markets/business, earlier on, they would be in better shape with more freedoms now. 

     

Perhaps as an aside, I am not dismissive of the impact of an economic downturn and isolationism as a huge consideration in the U.S.  It is a fact of life here and most other countries that people stuck in miserable conditions they have no power to change will engage in pathological behavior very quickly, and with god-awful consequences. Look at any inner city ghetto or dying rural town and you'll see it in all its glory.  The lurking toll of economic devastation and social isolation is incomprensible and unreported.   

 

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32 minutes ago, LonesomeHabanoAficionado said:

Much agreed! I myself feel proud of the actions of the Korean government against COVID-19! However, most of the Korean news companies and far right wings are still being reckless by posting and broadcasting fake news...

 

I'll be damned if I didn't hear the exact opposite thing in a discussion with an acquaintance in Seoul.  Hell if I know, but I try my best to  avoid agenda-driven media coverage, which is really an impossible feat.  

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I'll be damned if I didn't hear the exact opposite thing in a discussion with an acquaintance in Seoul.  Hell if I know, but I try my best to  avoid agenda-driven media coverage, which is really an impossible feat.  

Yeah, I'm really upset about the behaviour of the most of Korean media companies (and followers of these companies). Even worse, they also purposely manipulating data, deleting and editing their articles, etc (the reason why I don't watch news from them anymore)...

 

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9 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Perhaps as an aside, I am not dismissive of the impact of an economic downturn and isolationism as a huge consideration in the U.S.  It is a fact of life here and most other countries that people stuck in miserable conditions they have no power to change will engage in pathological behavior very quickly, and with god-awful consequences. Look at any inner city ghetto or dying rural town and you'll see it in all its glory.  The lurking toll of economic devastation and social isolation is incomprensible and unreported.  

I respect this, but I guess my point is, the leading economists are suggesting that, the die is cast, to further focus on this months pay cheque, (and go out and spread the virus), has direct cause and affect in ensuring that, that very same individual will be exponentially negatively effected because of their own actions.   

 

 

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11 minutes ago, 99call said:

I respect this, but I guess my point is, the leading economists are suggesting that, the die is cast, to further focus on this months pay cheque, (and go out and spread the virus), has direct cause and affect in ensuring that, that very same individual will be exponentially negatively effected because of their own actions.   

 

 

That's really too sweeping of a statement to reply to, with one exception.  I am absolutely confident that there are "leading economists" that would beg to differ.with whatever conclusions you have seen/heard.  Absolute (non volitional) isolation for indefinite periods versus the long-term societal impact of it is not binary and probably beyond any meaningful metric with anything that is known right now (which ain't a hell of a lot).    

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A fact : Day 16 of lockdown, only consolation plenty food and cigars.

A fact No light at end of the tunnel, in Italy.

A fact :   Other Countries are between 2 to 4 weeks behind  Italy in fighting this enemy.

A fact : The reason is that Italy did not believe the Chinese government ( even with late communication ) and other Countries did not believe Italy, blaming as the usual exaggerating . French on newspaper wrote CoronaPizza, British said that lockdown was a good excuse for Italians to stay off work, Austria, Germany would have been better to just close their mouth and USA ... is in the hands of a great liar.

A fact : the world is packed with idiots.

A fact : the world will survive and unfortunately the idiots will not die. So after 6 months we will be where we where six months ago.

my 0,2 cents.

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Wife and I are in lockdown in Kentucky. Choosing to shelter in place. Weather looks to be conducive for cigars late this week. ...and I'm looking forward to it. Hope all is well with the lot of you!

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I hate to say this, but there is a bit of boy who cried wolf at issue here. My mistrust in general of the government causes me to regard with suspicion any action taken "for my own good." This is surely unfortunate as I am a thinking, rational human being who is more than capable of understanding that certain times there are actions that need to be taken in my best interest. I cannot come to grips with the cognitive dissonance long enough to make any sense of the issue. I cast blame on the media for over blowing the fear statistics though I have found publications in The Lancet journal to be far more even handed. The situation appears critical under any circumstances.

I do however wonder whether current shelter in place orders will have any meaningful effect, given the late hour of their initiation, and the necessity for people to leave there homes to earn a living and secure supplies. I know one thing for sure, if these measures were taken in a panic and later data revealed to our masters they were unnecessary, we will never know.

 Bold prediction: governments have a vested interest in the mortality rate made available to the public being artificially higher than the virus' actual mortality rate. I am seeing these things happen behind the scenes first hand, with tests only being administered to high risk groups who are symptomatic. We will never know the full extent of the pandemic. This too is suspicious to me, though I remain mindful there are legitimate reasons for handling things in this manner to get services to those most in need. 

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1 hour ago, dominattorney said:

Bold prediction: governments have a vested interest in the mortality rate made available to the public being artificially higher than the virus' actual mortality rate. I am seeing these things happen behind the scenes first hand, with tests only being administered to high risk groups who are symptomatic. We will never know the full extent of the pandemic. This too is suspicious to me, though I remain mindful there are legitimate reasons for handling things in this manner to get services to those most in need. 

But we've known from the beginning that it's a fairly low mortality rate. There's no conspiracy here.

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41 minutes ago, Cubadust said:

But we've known from the beginning that it's a fairly low mortality rate. There's no conspiracy here.

No conspiracy, but a fairly open secret that people responsible for shuttering the economy have a vested interest in protecting. 

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38 minutes ago, db13 said:

Sounds to me like the country will be fine and resume back to normal by Easter!

Which country? USA?  This morning total case count was 45K.  Eight hours later it now stands at 53K. And with so much testing still to be done, there's a lot more downs than ups I'm afraid.  :(

 

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