Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[Deeg]

49 minutes ago, The Squiggler said:

I detected a bit of sarcasm there.  It stands to be a fairly grim Easter (unless you're in South Korea, in which case you probably won't be celebrating Easter anyway).

Actually Christians of one branch or another are the largest single religious group in South Korea, almost 30% (unaffiliated is larger than anything). As it happens most of the early outbreaks in South Korea were connected to a specific Church group holding large gatherings.

[BellevilleMXZ]

4 hours ago, bundwallah said:

Which country? USA?  This morning total case count was 45K.  Eight hours later it now stands at 53K. And with so much testing still to be done, there's a lot more downs than ups I'm afraid. 

 

Exactly....A week ago sunday it was only 1600!?

[The Squiggler]

1 hour ago, Deeg said:

Actually Christians of one branch or another are the largest single religious group in South Korea, almost 30% (unaffiliated is larger than anything). As it happens most of the early outbreaks in South Korea were connected to a specific Church group holding large gatherings.

I had no idea (obviously).  Yet another demonstration of assumption making an ass out of u & mtion ?

*edit: the reason I mentioned South Korea was because they seem to be the only country capable of containing the spread... the Easter thing was just tangential (if ignorant)

[Deeg]

1 hour ago, The Squiggler said:

I had no idea (obviously).  Yet another demonstration of assumption making an ass out of u & mtion ?

*edit: the reason I mentioned South Korea was because they seem to be the only country capable of containing the spread... the Easter thing was just tangential (if ignorant)

I would add Germany to that list - at least so far.  The common threads - tons of aggressive testing, and a mortality rate reported below 1%.  Not coincidental that those factors are all linked.

I often see the "Well, those countries will have a second and third wave so what they did is no better, LOL" argument but - do people not realize that makes no sense?  What South Korea and Germany have done is flatten the curve.  That's the whole point - not to avoid people testing positive, but to spread out the infection rate over a longer period and thus, to be able to get critical care to those that need it.  The reason their mortality rates are so low is twofold - yes they have fewer unreported positives among mild and asymptomatic people, but they also have beds and ventilators for those who need them.

[Ken Gargett]

1 hour ago, Deeg said:

I would add Germany to that list - at least so far.  The common threads - tons of aggressive testing, and a mortality rate reported below 1%.  Not coincidental that those factors are all linked.

I often see the "Well, those countries will have a second and third wave so what they did is no better, LOL" argument but - do people not realize that makes no sense?  What South Korea and Germany have done is flatten the curve.  That's the whole point - not to avoid people testing positive, but to spread out the infection rate over a longer period and thus, to be able to get critical care to those that need it.  The reason their mortality rates are so low is twofold - yes they have fewer unreported positives among mild and asymptomatic people, but they also have beds and ventilators for those who need them.

and that seems to be exactly what the top medicos are saying. good post.

we have just cancelled all non essential surgery here in oz, so as to better cope with what is coming. doing everything to flatten that curve. and of course, if a vaccine does appear or more effective treatments, the more people still alive when that happens, the better. 

this idea that things will be back to normal in a few weeks, just because someone (and this can be anyone with delusions of godlike authority - not pointing specific fingers) says it will is bizarre and suggests such a lack of understanding.

we have some of our tv/sky talking heads like jones and bolt who were contemptuous of anyone suggesting this was a problem. since their betters at fox etc, have started to get on board that this is a problem, they have been changing their opinions as fast as they get paid. you'd think that they had discovered the dangers themselves. bad enough that dimwitted imbeciles like these clowns get a platform but even worse that it seems so many of us swallow whatever they say. lord help this country if a virus ever takes the stupid. 

and just on the media, full marks to the media outlet (nothing being named here) which held a poll on how their beloved leader was doing in handling this crisis (fair to say that most of the rest of the world has not been falling over itself in praise). people could vote one of three ways (i am not making this up) - 

the leader's performance was - 

A. superb

B. great

C. very good.

needless to say, that media outlet was then able to report that there was overwhelming acclaim for their leader's efforts. that will do me. 

(and before anyone speculates on just who and where, let's be honest, that could be half the countries on the planet. i suspect many will be cranky that they didn't think of it). 

 

here is a thought - been a great deal of speculation that china, iran, the states, all manner of places are either deliberately or accidentally under-reporting.

Russia.

less than 500 infections. one death and a deaths/one million population that is the lowest in the world (0.01).

anyone heard anything? any of our russian friends able to give any info? 

would absolutely love it if this was correct as it would mean some real hope in large populations dealing with it. but???

[nKostyan]

Latest news from Moscow:

- people aged 65+ (risk group)must be transferred to home work. Pensioners are promised a$ 50 bonus for observing the isolation regime;

- ban for events of more than 50 participants (in fact, the organizers canceled any events regardless of the number);

- metro passenger traffic has decreased by 2/3, people use personal cars, but the metro will not be closed;

- The President visited the Moscow infectious diseases hospital, where patients with coronavirus are treated;

- Russia sent 14 military transport planes to Italy with equipment and military antiepidemist specialists to fight epidemics. It is noteworthy that Poland did not allow these planes through its airspace and the route turned out to be longer;

- the school year for schoolchildren and students (traditionally ends at the end of may) is likely to be completed ahead of schedule.

 

 

 

[Ken Gargett]

16 minutes ago, nKostyan said:

Latest news from Moscow:

- people aged 65+ (risk group)must be transferred to home work. Pensioners are promised a$ 50 bonus for observing the isolation regime;

- ban for events of more than 50 participants (in fact, the organizers canceled any events regardless of the number);

- metro passenger traffic has decreased by 2/3, people use personal cars, but the metro will not be closed;

- The President visited the Moscow infectious diseases hospital, where patients with coronavirus are treated;

- Russia sent 14 military transport planes to Italy with equipment and military antiepidemist specialists to fight epidemics. It is noteworthy that Poland did not allow these planes through its airspace and the route turned out to be longer;

- the school year for schoolchildren and students (traditionally ends at the end of may) is likely to be completed ahead of schedule.

 

 

 

thanks for that.

is there a feeling that russia has so far avoided it and that it will continue to do so or are people expecting it to get much worse?

it sounds as though you are not going anywhere near the serious lockdowns happening in some places. 

[nKostyan]

thanks for that.
is there a feeling that russia has so far avoided it and that it will continue to do so or are people expecting it to get much worse?
it sounds as though you are not going anywhere near the serious lockdowns happening in some places. 

We don't get a lot of positive information from the media, but yesterday a virologist in an interview said that the army's system for fighting epidemics is still not involved, and moreover, these specialists were sent to help Italy - an indicator that the situation is developing according to an easy scenario and is completely controlled by civilian doctors. Most likely, the forecast of the fight against the epidemic will be positive, just do not declare it so that people do not relax and do not neglect the observance of hygiene and distance.

[Capt. Corona]

Reported numbers in the states are growing every day.  I trust them to be as accurate as far as I can throw my truck but there is no leveling off in sight.

Stay vigilant...stay safe. ?

[wineguy]

I would say for the US we are way under estimated. For example anyone associated with me who has symptoms is presumed positive and will not be tested.  That is 7.  add in some others with no symptoms who are also presumed positive from contact and we have 10.  So I would say the infection rate is easily 10x published numbers and probably more based on people with low grade symptoms who "have a cold" 

But all that I mention above are or will recover so not serious cases.  The math is just not reliable on a mortality or infection rate.

[westg]

On 3/25/2020 at 6:20 AM, Ken Gargett said:

did not know we had any roads that went downhill for 5 kms. 

Come on Ken , give him a break. For some running on the spot for 5 mins equats to 5 km. In fairness to him though he was looking sharp in the last vid you guys did with Chris . ?‍♂️ 

[Ken Gargett]

7 minutes ago, westg said:

Come on Ken , give him a break. For some running on the spot for 5 mins equats to 5 km. In fairness to him though he was looking sharp in the last vid you guys did with Chris . ?‍♂️ 

westy, you must owe him a truckload of money!!

[Grateful13]

On 3/24/2020 at 9:21 AM, Deeg said:

Even with Italy giving the rest of Europe and the States a free preview of what happens when you wait too long to act, this "almost everyone who isn't old or has underlying conditions will be fine" myth still persists.

 

 

 

Ummm, that isn't a myth.  

The amount of obscene fear-mongering going on with this virus is disgusting.  

[scottm12]

Booze got delivered! Been stuck at home for 12 days. Meanwhile the wife is making sure everyone at the university of Washington here in Seattle has the right gear on to take care of these people. Hope you all are staying home and being safe. 

[rcarlson]

12 hours ago, wineguy said:

I would say for the US we are way under estimated. For example anyone associated with me who has symptoms is presumed positive and will not be tested.  That is 7.  add in some others with no symptoms who are also presumed positive from contact and we have 10.  So I would say the infection rate is easily 10x published numbers and probably more based on people with low grade symptoms who "have a cold" 

But all that I mention above are or will recover so not serious cases.  The math is just not reliable on a mortality or infection rate.

Agreed.  We don't know.  

To your point, mine ,and others', I saw this the other day (link chosen to avoid paywall): 

https://www.sott.net/article/431360-Wall-Street-Journal-Is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say

[Cairo]

On 3/24/2020 at 8:33 AM, Kitchen said:

As more and more celebrities and politicians get this and survive, most people are going to weigh the risks of catching the virus being less for themselves and their families then noting having income.  Add to that that experts are saying up to 80% of the population may need to catch this, and people will get into the mode of better now then later. 

 

This is a double-edged sword.    There are enough high-profile folks testing positive that the odds are at least a few of them will actually die from it.

I think we are in wild-card territory--nothing would surprise me at this point.

[Kitchen]

16 minutes ago, Cairo said:

This is a double-edged sword.    There are enough high-profile folks testing positive that the odds are at least a few of them will actually die from it.

I think we are in wild-card territory--nothing would surprise me at this point.

This week has actually been pretty positive.  A couple of studies are coming out, one from London and another from Stanford, showing that significantly more people have caught then what we know.  If this is true, then the fatality rate would drop like a rock, and the possible range goes below the common flu.  Now this does not mean it still will not hamper the system, since it appears like we will be catching this thing all at once.  

[JamesKPolkEsq]

1 hour ago, Kitchen said:

This week has actually been pretty positive.  A couple of studies are coming out, one from London and another from Stanford, showing that significantly more people have caught then what we know.  If this is true, then the fatality rate would drop like a rock, and the possible range goes below the common flu.  Now this does not mean it still will not hamper the system, since it appears like we will be catching this thing all at once.  

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=ce13061b_2

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200318-sitrep-58-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=20876712_2

March 18th - 7800 deaths due to virus

March 25th - 18426 deaths due to virus (136% increase in a week)

 

Since case numbers aren't telling the whole picture - supply limited obviously - COVID deaths are unfortunately a proxy for cases. The virus isn't spreading completely unchecked, but it's far too great.

A 136% increase in deaths is pretty far from positive by any measure. 

[99call]

So far I have received 3 scam emails and texts, from subhuman scum trying to scam people during these difficult times. 

Please someone explain to be why governments aren't cracking down on online scammers?.  I don't mean to pin-point one country, as levels of poverty in India, do mean people turn to any means necessary to earn money to eat, but Jesus.  Whether it means trade sanctions or whatever something needs to be done. 

Stuff like this make me want to puke. 

 

 

[rcarlson]

1 hour ago, Kitchen said:

This week has actually been pretty positive.  A couple of studies are coming out, one from London and another from Stanford, showing that significantly more people have caught then what we know.  If this is true, then the fatality rate would drop like a rock, and the possible range goes below the common flu.  Now this does not mean it still will not hamper the system, since it appears like we will be catching this thing all at once.  

My WSJ article posted above is the Stanford proffs' op ed.  

[rcarlson]

27 minutes ago, JamesKPolkEsq said:

Since case numbers aren't telling the whole picture - supply limited obviously - COVID deaths are unfortunately a proxy for cases. The virus isn't spreading completely unchecked, but it's far too great.

That's pretty far from positive by any measure. 

I don't follow.  The denominator and the numerator are not proxies for each other.  

[JamesKPolkEsq]

7 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

I don't follow.  The denominator and the numerator are not proxies for each other.  

Regardless of the case fatality rate (CFR) actual magnitude, the relationship between the two numbers for an outbreak track well. 

If you prefer to use the case rate (disagree with the approach), the number is a bit better but still more than doubling every week. 

 March 18th - 191,127 cases

March 25th - 413,467 cases

116% increase. 

Stay at home folks, stay safe. We're in the top of the second inning. 

 

 

[rcarlson]

27 minutes ago, JamesKPolkEsq said:

Regardless of the case fatality rate (CFR) actual magnitude, the relationship between the two numbers for an outbreak track well. 

If you prefer to use the case rate (disagree with the approach), the number is a bit better but still more than doubling every week. 

 March 18th - 191,127 cases

March 25th - 413,467 cases

116% increase. 

Stay at home folks, stay safe. We're in the top of the second inning. 

 

 

Statistical significance requires that the relationship be established with actual numbers.  

We may be talking past each other, but Kitchen's comment is not off mark.  I think we'd both agree that statistical significance and degree of optimism/pessimism are interrelated but not proxies either.  

An excerpt from what I think Kitchen was referring to (I already linked):

 "If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, 2 million to 4 million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills 2 million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far."

[rcarlson]

A primo example why a sober, dispassionate approach to all of this is needed -- and the media ain't gonna provide it.  

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

By way of background, Neil Ferguson led studies recently warned of 500,000 deaths in the UK.  He has himself tested positive.   

Ferguson now says less that 20,000, more than one-half of whom would've died by the end of the year from old-age/sickness.

Ferguson's change of direction is because estimates of transmissibility have increased, meaning more people are believed to be infected than previously thought.  From that he has revised his estimate of the epidemic's peak is now two to three weeks away rather than the 18 months he originally predicted. 

 

   

 

[Kitchen]

2 hours ago, JamesKPolkEsq said:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=ce13061b_2

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200318-sitrep-58-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=20876712_2

March 18th - 7800 deaths due to virus

March 25th - 18426 deaths due to virus (136% increase in a week)

 

Since case numbers aren't telling the whole picture - supply limited obviously - COVID deaths are unfortunately a proxy for cases. The virus isn't spreading completely unchecked, but it's far too great.

A 136% increase in deaths is pretty far from positive by any measure. 

Deaths are going to go up; it's a fact that will need to be dealt with.  But if it turns out the new studies are correct, it would be a positive when looking at the overall effect.  It would mean we will be seeing the lower side of predictions instead of the higher side.  Also, if many more people have already been infected than what we think, this would mean heard immunity is much closer then we also think, another big positive especially when it comes to getting back to work.  

The children of darkness are currently getting all of the attention in the media, but I insist on being a child of light on this.