Popular Post Habana Mike Posted March 30, 2020 Author Popular Post Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, rcarlson said: Not telling at all. This is an amazingly tortured, agenda-driven piece filled with unsupported factual leaps. Let's agree to disagree on this. From my perspective, regardless how you read the piece, if the Governor of California had not taken the actions he did when he did the Bay area would be the epicenter of the pandemic rather than New York. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpm32 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Habana Mike said: Let's agree to disagree on this. From my perspective, regardless how you read the piece, if the Governor of California had not taken the actions he did when he did the Bay area would be the epicenter of the pandemic rather than New York. I guess I’m not seeing the controversy—I would expect these decisions to be up to the states, or even the counties, where local leaders should know their area better than people thousands of miles away. What’s right for CA isn’t necessarily what’s right for WY or ND. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smokum Posted March 30, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 30, 2020 I think this guy knows a thing or two...NY is really getting hit hard. Chicago is growing too. My beautiful daughter is in an ER. I can’t see her now. She is busy but not many cases yet in her county which os 90 miles from Chicago. Its taking a toll on Chicago Police now too just as in NY. Going to be a whole different place when we come out the other side. This one is bad. 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post 99call Posted March 30, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 30, 2020 6 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said: This is bad. Thank you for your tireless work, on behalf of us all that have the luxury of locking ourselves up at home, we are indebted. In the middle of looking after everyone else, I hope you're able to find sometime to look after yourself. have a VI, or maybe VI of VI ! , and look forward to a better time when all this is past us. Whilst everyone is focused on the short fall of medical equipment around the world, I hope these same governments are mindful that there is going to have to be a huge safety net of emotional support for medical staff during, and especially once this is all over. Hats off to you Mate, stay safe, and thank you. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcarlson Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 7 hours ago, Habana Mike said: Let's agree to disagree on this. From my perspective, regardless how you read the piece, if the Governor of California had not taken the actions he did when he did the Bay area would be the epicenter of the pandemic rather than New York. Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Corona Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 12 hours ago, rcarlson said: Not telling at all. This is an amazingly tortured, agenda-driven piece filled with unsupported factual leaps. 10 hours ago, db13 said: I’m not sure where you get your news from but from what I can recall over the past couple of months it reads as facts to me... I'll follow the Guardian for facts over most outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchen Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 10 hours ago, Habana Mike said: Let's agree to disagree on this. From my perspective, regardless how you read the piece, if the Governor of California had not taken the actions he did when he did the Bay area would be the epicenter of the pandemic rather than New York. I very much disagree with this. Your numbers would be higher, but unlike NYC, LA is very spread out and most travel is done within cars. NYC is a very crammed city, lending itself to high rates of infection, not to mention the lead form of travel is a crowded subway, which for some reason was not shut down. No other place in the country is more susceptible then NYC, not even close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellot00tr Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 This is out of a GS call from 2 weeks ago. 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcarlson Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 34 minutes ago, Capt. Corona said: I'll follow the Guardian for facts over most outlets. Last place I'd go. But to each their own. Not going to dissect. I lack the energy. The pitiless march of political blame-casting will continue and find its audience no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helix Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The Associated Press seems to be sticking to fact based reporting. http://api-esp.piano.io/story/estored/vib-ck8eae4ge43oxs976l16qfrhv/264785799/-1?sig=cd1d83d561a3bc742a3bb94eb3cd93c5fd5b451b463eae0cd62d2dc4fce376d1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burningman Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 I'm very fearful of the impact this virus is going to have on the area I reside. We have a very low population, less than half a million inhabitants for the whole county. The issue is a significant part of the population is made up of essential workers. The top three employers are agriculture, hospitality, and the state prison. Hospitality is going to take a major hit. Those working inside the prison as guards and support staff work is close quarters making their jobs that much more dangerous. The people most at risk and that I assume will transmit the virus in public will be the farm laborers. The majority of these workers have no insurance and will be showing up for work regardless of illness. This puts all our residents at high risk. My fear is when things get worse rural areas will not get much attention as more populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchen Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, db13 said: Habana Mike said *Bay Area*. Which is San Francisco. Isolated like NY and crammed. Still does not change the analysis. The overall population of San Fran is 880K, whereas the population of Manhattan (just one borough) is 1.6M with overall population being 8.6M. Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K. San Fran is probably more closely related to Philadelphia, both of which will have their problems. But NYC is at orders of magnitude worse just due to population and why it is taking precedence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post El Presidente Posted March 30, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 30, 2020 And another says goodbye to the forum as he just couldnt control himself. Keep going fellas. It is all so edifying to the rest of us 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Corona Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 6 hours ago, rcarlson said: Last place I'd go. But to each their own. Not going to dissect. I lack the energy. The pitiless march of political blame-casting will continue and find its audience no matter what. Well ya know...it's all fake news where ever you go, so choose your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcarlson Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Capt. Corona said: Well ya know...it's all fake news where ever you go, so choose your poison. Indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habana Mike Posted March 30, 2020 Author Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Kitchen said: Still does not change the analysis. The overall population of San Fran is 880K, whereas the population of Manhattan (just one borough) is 1.6M with overall population being 8.6M. Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K. San Fran is probably more closely related to Philadelphia, both of which will have their problems. But NYC is at orders of magnitude worse just due to population and why it is taking precedence right now. Good points. Discussing the situation is the way forward. Still glad SF locked down when they did as I believe there would be many more cases than there are. Santa Clara county was the second hot spot following Washington state. We're starting to issue Stay at home orders in some Georgia counties. For me, I've been out of the house only twice since March 2nd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scap99 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 5 hours ago, Kitchen said: Still does not change the analysis. The overall population of San Fran is 880K, whereas the population of Manhattan (just one borough) is 1.6M with overall population being 8.6M. Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K. San Fran is probably more closely related to Philadelphia, both of which will have their problems. But NYC is at orders of magnitude worse just due to population and why it is taking precedence right now. I had no idea that the population density was that high. It's mind boggling that infrastructure can support that on a good day!! Houston feels crowded and our density is supposedly 3,600/sq mi (1400/sq km) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesKPolkEsq Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Good news - California's policy of putting the state on lockdown appears effective As of Monday morning, the city reported a total of 374 confirmed infections and six deaths from the virus. While the availability of testing is still much lower than officials would like, the modest daily count compared to other major urban centers may be an encouraging sign that the early aggressive action in the country’s second most densely populated city is having its intended effect. “We have already made a difference in saving lives,” San Francisco Mayor London Breed said during a news conference Monday, though she and other officials repeatedly cautioned that US communities are still in the early stages of the battle against the virus. Stay safe all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deeg Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 14 hours ago, Kitchen said: Still does not change the analysis. The overall population of San Fran is 880K, whereas the population of Manhattan (just one borough) is 1.6M with overall population being 8.6M. Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K. San Fran is probably more closely related to Philadelphia, both of which will have their problems. But NYC is at orders of magnitude worse just due to population and why it is taking precedence right now. Population density of NYC is 27K per square mile, not 67K. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, Deeg said: Population density of NYC is 27K per square mile, not 67K. I thought Manhattan had a PD in the high 60K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duxnutz Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Hope all this lockdown crap is worth it. Flew 27 pax from LA to Honolulu yesterday on a 280 seat Airbus 330 ? (would have been 30 but 3 were on the weed wagon - but that’s neither here nor there). Today we announced a 14 day quarantine for our entire state, pretty much prohibiting inter island flights. Gonna be a tough month and I’m doubtful this airline that’s existed for 90 years will survive. In the 10 yrs I’ve been smoking cigars I’ve never been more disinterested in smoking one. F#$k me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Duxnutz said: In the 10 yrs I’ve been smoking cigars I’ve never been more disinterested in smoking one. F#$k me. There is plenty of pain going around. If you get a chance, join in on one of the FOH BTB Herf sessions with the lads. I am on around 4pm your time but check in earlier or later. It is guaranteed to put a smile on your face and forget about the crap for a while. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deeg Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, El Presidente said: I thought Manhattan had a PD in the high 60K? Well, what I was responding to was "Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K". If you want to cherrypick the most densely populated part of NYC, then in order for it to be an apples-to-apples (pun intended) comparison, you'd need to pick the most densely-populated part of SF. Which would in fact be the most densely-populated urban area west of Manhattan, Chinatown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Deeg said: Well, what I was responding to was "Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K". If you want to cherrypick the most densely populated part of NYC, then in order for it to be an apples-to-apples (pun intended) comparison, you'd need to pick the most densely-populated part of SF. Which would in fact be the most densely-populated urban area west of Manhattan, Chinatown. Well there you go. Our news stations when reporting on NYC CV epicentre often lead in with the 60+ Pop density. That is the only reason it registered with me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcarlson Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 hours ago, Deeg said: Well, what I was responding to was "Population density of NYC is 67K per square mile with San Fran's being 17K". If you want to cherrypick the most densely populated part of NYC, then in order for it to be an apples-to-apples (pun intended) comparison, you'd need to pick the most densely-populated part of SF. Which would in fact be the most densely-populated urban area west of Manhattan, Chinatown. Not familiar with SF. Have you seen any infection rates in the densely populated territory? Curious how they compare; betting they'd be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.e2a46b57b5880109ddf171d1b6f9daea.png)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now