Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[Nino]

Could get worse than it already is :

The Coronavirus Is Mutating. What Does That Mean for a Vaccine?

By Nathaniel Lash and Tala SchlossbergApril 16, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Around the world, hope for a return to normalcy is pinned on a vaccine, the “ultimate weapon,” as it’s been called by officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. But it’s still unclear how successful a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, can be.

A lot will depend on how the virus mutates. Broadly, there are two ways mutations can play out.

Scenario 1: The coronavirus is unable to evade a vaccine

A successful vaccine could stop the virus dead in its tracks, but only if the virus doesn't mutate its way around the shot. Here's what scientists are watching for:

Like all viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is mutating as it passes from person to person. A “mutation” is just a change in a virus’s genetic code. Most mutations don’t really change how the virus functions.

Below is a glimpse at an imaginary virus. It’s doing what all viruses do: entering a cell, hijacking the cell’s machinery and using it to make many copies of itself.

Sometimes, small errors — or mutations — can show up in that replication. Those errors accumulate over time as the virus spreads from cell to cell and person to person.

 

Vaccines work by prompting the body to develop antibodies, which neutralize the virus by binding to it in a very specific way. Scientists are watching to see if mutations will affect this interaction. If they don't, then there is hope that a vaccine won't need constant updating.

 

That same process has played out with our most effective vaccines, including the one against measles.

“Measles mutates just as fast as flu and coronavirus, but the measles vaccine from 1950 still works today,” said Trevor Bedford, a biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.

To enter a cell, the measles virus uses certain of its proteins that are unable to mutate even slightly without breaking. The vaccine targets those parts, so any mutation that would evade the vaccine would mean that the virus can’t infect other cells.

The vaccine has the measles virus cornered.

Scenario 2: Mutations make vaccines less effective over time

But what if the virus doesn’t get cornered like measles? If the virus mutates in a way that prevents antibodies from binding, it could make a lasting, universal vaccine difficult to create.

Antibodies, which the body produces in response to a vaccine or an infection, work by binding to specific spots on a virus called antigens. If random viral mutations alter the shape of an antigen, it can make a vaccine less effective against the virus.

"What will happen in many viruses is you'll get infected by Strain A; your immune system learns to recognize that surface protein, but then the virus is able to mutate in such a fashion that it still performs its function but make it so that your antibodies against Strain A no longer recognize Strain B," Dr. Bedford said.

Here’s that scenario playing out on our fictional virus: The antibodies produced by the vaccine work on one strain but can’t bind to the other, rendering the vaccine ineffective.

That’s what happens with the flu: The virus’s antigens mutate so much that they evolve into different strains, each requiring a slightly different vaccine. Scientists continuously develop vaccines to target those new strains. In spite of that, the vaccines offer only partial immunity to the various flu strains that spread each year.

If that happens with the coronavirus, researchers will have to rush to produce and administer new vaccines as novel strains of the virus naturally arise.

It also reveals another quirk with how viruses behave: Some can respond to the immunity in the population they’re trying to infect. Over time, for example, many people develop immunity to at least some strains of the flu — either through fighting off infections or by getting vaccinated. But the virus keeps spreading. Here’s how.

For a brand-new virus like SARS-CoV-2, there is no widespread immunity. This virus is encountering few immune hosts who could halt its spread. Since the virus doesn’t need to change to survive, mutations that could modify the shape of the antigens — if they exist at all — are likely rare, and will stay rare.

But if people become immune to the dominant strain, either by fighting off the virus or through vaccination, the game changes. Versions of the virus with mutations that get around the population’s immunity are more likely to spread, and can then develop into new strains.

 

The takeaway: We’ll have to wait and see

Scientists know that SARS-CoV-2 is mutating.

Among the thousands of samples of the long strand of RNA that makes up the coronavirus, 11 mutations have become fairly common. But as far as we know, it’s the same virus infecting people all over the world, meaning that only one “strain” of the virus exists, said Peter Thielen, a molecular biologist with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

Only one of those common mutations affects the “spike protein,” which enables the virus to infect cells in the throat and lungs. Efforts to produce antibodies that block the spike protein are central to many efforts to develop a vaccine. Since the spike protein has changed little so far, some scientists believe that’s a sign that it can’t alter itself very much and remain infectious.

There’s still a lot about the virus we don’t know. We don’t even know if people are immune to the virus if they’ve caught it already, nor how long that immunity could last, though work is well underway to understand these things.

Mr. Thielen says it is still unclear how those mutations in the genome will ultimately affect countermeasures like a vaccine.

“We just have to keep looking,” he said.

 

[Madjul28]

Im stuck at my job site in canada for 32 days lol...that is it..kind of a long quarantine

[helix]

6 hours ago, JamesKPolkEsq said:

Immediately proceeds to go conspiracy theory ?

There's a reason why this exact scenario, coronavirus focused, was the subject of a global pandemic tabletop exercise last year.

Coronaviruses have been spread exactly this way twice in the past, MERS and SARS. It just happens that this particular strain is different than previous outbreaks in that it has a long incubation period and asymptomatic spreaders. 

right after If   LOL. 

[Ken Gargett]

9 hours ago, helix said:

Not to go all conspiracy theory but if  this virus was developed in the lab in Wuhan , and is as such, a virus developed to be a form of  weaponized biological agent and not a naturally occurring pathogen ,  it may explain its unusually potent and contagious nature . 

https://nationalpost.com/news/its-possible-a-wuhan-disease-lab-is-the-focus-of-suspicion-and-conspiracy-theories-about-covid-19s-origins

Formerly being an accredited NSF 49 Biological Safety Cabinet Certifier  (https://www.nsf.org/services/by-industry/pharma-biotech/biosafety-cabinetry/biosafety-cabinet-field-certifier-accreditation) and having worked in BSL level 3 containment labs , I suggest It being near impossible for an accidental release of a pathogen from such a facility .

i don't buy the lab theory for an instant. 

in the first place, unless the chinese are so much more hopeless at this sort of thing than we think, is that really the best they could do? if they were developing 'weaponised biological agents', does anyone really think that they could not make a more effective one? this one is severe but if it was intended as a weapon, it is hardly as powerful as they could make it.

as you say, near impossible for an accidental release. in other words, this is all nonsense or they deliberately released it. again, does anyone really believe that they would release something like this in their own country to kill their own people and put themselves in a situation where control gets out of their hands. they'd know every chance it could sweep through their country. that makes no sense at all. if one did subscribe to the conspiracy theories and believe that this was a chinese weapon, why on earth, if they wanted to test it, would they not release it elsewhere? they are all over places like africa. how much easier to start there. zero chinese casualties and plenty of animals/markets/people on which to blame it. we'd all think it was something like ebola. it makes zero sense to release it in your own country. 

also, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that a naturally occurring pathogen can't be this potent and contagious. assuming it must be a weapon is a massive leap. 

this out-of-a-lab theory came out in the very early days. my understanding was that it was completely dismissed by all relevant medical and intelligence bodies. now it has come up again because it is nice to have someone to blame for any shortcomings in our own countries and govts. 

[Deeg]

The lab theory is being pushed as part of a political narrative in order to distract from mistakes being made on the ground - same as "Kung Flu" and "Chinese Virus".  It's BS.

One thing has become increasingly obvious in recent years - narrative is a powerful weapon in the court of public opinion, and it's the enemy of truth.  Whenever consuming information on something like a pandemic one should be on high alert for the presence of the former, because anything filtered through it is going to be unreliable.

[helix]

26 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

i don't buy the lab theory for an instant. 

in the first place, unless the chinese are so much more hopeless at this sort of thing than we think, is that really the best they could do? if they were developing 'weaponised biological agents', does anyone really think that they could not make a more effective one? this one is severe but if it was intended as a weapon, it is hardly as powerful as they could make it.

as you say, near impossible for an accidental release. in other words, this is all nonsense or they deliberately released it. again, does anyone really believe that they would release something like this in their own country to kill their own people and put themselves in a situation where control gets out of their hands. they'd know every chance it could sweep through their country. that makes no sense at all. if one did subscribe to the conspiracy theories and believe that this was a chinese weapon, why on earth, if they wanted to test it, would they not release it elsewhere? they are all over places like africa. how much easier to start there. zero chinese casualties and plenty of animals/markets/people on which to blame it. we'd all think it was something like ebola. it makes zero sense to release it in your own country. 

also, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that a naturally occurring pathogen can't be this potent and contagious. assuming it must be a weapon is a massive leap. 

this out-of-a-lab theory came out in the very early days. my understanding was that it was completely dismissed by all relevant medical and intelligence bodies. now it has come up again because it is nice to have someone to blame for any shortcomings in our own countries and govts. 

tongue in cheek,,,,,,,,if the country that developed such a bio weapon were to unleash it on there own population first, get herd immunity first , get back up and running economically first , new world order..... where's 007  

[Ken Gargett]

26 minutes ago, helix said:

tongue in cheek,,,,,,,,if the country that developed such a bio weapon were to unleash it on there own population first, get herd immunity first , get back up and running economically first , new world order..... where's 007  

yeah, i think we might have crossed into little-green-aliens-are-behind-this territory

[JamesKPolkEsq]

3 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

yeah, i think we might have crossed into little-green-aliens-are-behind-this territory

A slightly more plausible theory ?

[helix]

Preposterous  indeed . 

[helix]

Will make a great movie. Nicolas Cage LOL

[helix]

Its real tight here in west Quebec . No non essential travel between municipalities unless the provincial police with enhanced provincial powers at check points decide whether you can proceed.  I am on the border of Quebec and Ontario same deal. Being taken very seriously by most everyone staying home. We will get through this .

[Rhinoww]

Odd juxtaposition here. Ohio Gov says he is thinking of a thoughtful limited reopening on May 1, while the news last night talked about the overflow beds that were just set up in the convention center for possible hospital overflow. 
 

my bet is that there is currently sufficient hospital space if current lockdown conditions continue into the future. Local testing remains very hard to local and is still limited to those who meet criteria. 
 

next month will be interesting 

[TheFullMontecristo]

11 hours ago, helix said:

Its real tight here in west Quebec . No non essential travel between municipalities unless the provincial police with enhanced provincial powers at check points decide whether you can proceed.  I am on the border of Quebec and Ontario same deal. Being taken very seriously by most everyone staying home. We will get through this .

unless you are Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who tells the country not to visit family on the Easter weekend then proceeds to visit with his family over the Easter weekend.  

[JamesKPolkEsq]

2.5% to 4.2% of California's SF Bay Area test positive for coronavirus antibodies.

This puts to rest the hypothesis that there existed a large percentage of the population that had been previously exposed. 

There are several very positive developments on the treatment front:

Covalesent plasma therapy - good evidence that it works, available today

Acterma - approved drug for Rheumatoid Arthritis, strong promise to arrest CRS caused by COVID-19 

Remdesivir - Phase 3 drug nucleotide analog, early evidence that it works well on severe cases! 

Avigan - Approved in Japan, prevents viral RNA reproduction, effective for orthmyxoviruses and potentially coronavirus 

Two of the most promising treatments originate from California - You're welcome everyone ?

[garnett]

On ‎4‎/‎16‎/‎2020 at 9:29 AM, helix said:

Not to go all conspiracy theory but if  this virus was developed in the lab in Wuhan , and is as such, a virus developed to be a form of  weaponized biological agent and not a naturally occurring pathogen ,  it may explain its unusually potent and contagious nature . 

https://nationalpost.com/news/its-possible-a-wuhan-disease-lab-is-the-focus-of-suspicion-and-conspiracy-theories-about-covid-19s-origins

Formerly being an accredited NSF 49 Biological Safety Cabinet Certifier  (https://www.nsf.org/services/by-industry/pharma-biotech/biosafety-cabinetry/biosafety-cabinet-field-certifier-accreditation) and having worked in BSL level 3 containment labs , I suggest It being near impossible for an accidental release of a pathogen from such a facility .

near impossible but not impossible.

[dominattorney]

Trying to get back on the ball, ill say that I have been suffering severe psychological symptoms as a result of severe social distancing. I realized the impact when I found the dead and company show was canceled in July in Boulder. My stepdaughter called me crying. She is 24. I nearly lost it myself, then caught myself with the "ita only a concert" comforting thoughts. But the more I ruminate on it the more serious I feel these little emotional inconveniences become over time as they accumulate. I haven't lifted weights properly in 5 weeks. I feel despair over what would previously have been written off as minor inconvenience. I suspect I am not alone here. Zoom doesn't cut it for me, and the more time that goes by, the more I feel the social impact must be pretty dire for folks with mental illnesses or depressed tendencies. I am a stalwart by nature and this is really getting to me. If anyone needs anyone to talk to, pm me if you don't have anyone else close who understands what this does to a person mentally. I don't think it's a sign of weakness to express these thoughts and it took me a bit of time to come around to this realization. 

[ElJavi76]

Cause we need more bad news right now..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/04/16/140-plus-coronavirus-survivors-retest-positive-for-disease-in-south-korea-raising-questions-about-immunity/

Survivors testing positive after having recovered. Face palm!

[Rhinoww]

Was on the phone today w a colleague who lives in Brooklyn next to a 150 bed community hospital. For days he saw tents outside and assumed they were for testing. He took a walk yesterday. They are overflow morgues when the refrigerated trailer is full. That’s crazy depressing. 
 

I live in Ohio. Gov said yesterday obliquely that there would be some opening after May 1. Today the news showed that the convention center was set up as an overflow hospital. Seems there is a disconnect. Hoping for the best but preparing otherwise. 
 

and you wonder why I have become a hermit smoking cigars all day?

[CaptainQuintero]

4 hours ago, dominattorney said:

Trying to get back on the ball, ill say that I have been suffering severe psychological symptoms as a result of severe social distancing. I realized the impact when I found the dead and company show was canceled in July in Boulder. My stepdaughter called me crying. She is 24. I nearly lost it myself, then caught myself with the "ita only a concert" comforting thoughts. But the more I ruminate on it the more serious I feel these little emotional inconveniences become over time as they accumulate. I haven't lifted weights properly in 5 weeks. I feel despair over what would previously have been written off as minor inconvenience. I suspect I am not alone here. Zoom doesn't cut it for me, and the more time that goes by, the more I feel the social impact must be pretty dire for folks with mental illnesses or depressed tendencies. I am a stalwart by nature and this is really getting to me. If anyone needs anyone to talk to, pm me if you don't have anyone else close who understands what this does to a person mentally. I don't think it's a sign of weakness to express these thoughts and it took me a bit of time to come around to this realization. 

 Since great pointers dom, hope that you're in a bit of a better place after letting off a little steam. There's also a FoH club if you or anyone else needs a place to let off some pressure or hammer some thoughts down on the keyboard

https://www.friendsofhabanos.com/forum/forum/92-welcome-to-black-dog/

  There's no requirement of an illness or diagnosis etc needed, open to anyone who needs it, even if it's just too read along and know you're not going through issues alone

[dominattorney]

4 minutes ago, CaptainQuintero said:

 Since great pointers dom, hope that you're in a bit of a better place after letting off a little steam. There's also a FoH club if you or anyone else needs a place to let off some pressure or hammer some thoughts down on the keyboard

https://www.friendsofhabanos.com/forum/forum/92-welcome-to-black-dog/

  There's no requirement of an illness or diagnosis etc needed, open to anyone who needs it, even if it's just too read along and know you're not going through issues alone

@CaptainQuintero great point and good idea for a club. I would venture that a lot of us in this forum are male and victim to the trope of the stiff upper lip. I will check out the club tomorrow. Hope you and yours are well. 

[scap99]

Texas governor is starting to partially reopen the state beginning Monday....

Wife and I have been working from home for a solid month now, and as much as I want to get back to normal (what's normal, anyway) I feel like it's too soon.  Guess we will see. 

Stay safe and be well, everyone.

[Habana Mike]

I heard Jacksonville FL in the US are opening their beaches... Expecting another spike 2-3 weeks from now.

Perhaps that's part of the plan to try to build herd immunity.

 

[cigcars]

[nKostyan]

There is a bit of news from Russia. The self-isolation regime is in effect until the end of April. These measures were taken in advance four weeks ago, but the peak of the disease occurred only this week. Many people are already tired of isolation and go outside. Since this week, the Moscow authorities have introduced passes for movement around the city. Doctors say that the percentage of asymptomatic diseases increases every week - the virus adapts. The weather also does not allow you to relax: the winter was warm and almost without snow, but this week it snows every day.
Children learn remotely, and they are comfortable at home.
I went to the store one time, bought food for 2 weeks - I try to keep contacts to a minimum.
I work at home and in the garden, play sports, smoke cigars and watch movies.
Hello everyone, take care of yourself and your relatives from this infection.

[Ken Gargett]

8 minutes ago, nKostyan said:

There is a bit of news from Russia. The self-isolation regime is in effect until the end of April. These measures were taken in advance four weeks ago, but the peak of the disease occurred only this week. Many people are already tired of isolation and go outside. Since this week, the Moscow authorities have introduced passes for movement around the city. Doctors say that the percentage of asymptomatic diseases increases every week - the virus adapts. The weather also does not allow you to relax: the winter was warm and almost without snow, but this week it snows every day.
Children learn remotely, and they are comfortable at home.
I went to the store one time, bought food for 2 weeks - I try to keep contacts to a minimum.
I work at home and in the garden, play sports, smoke cigars and watch movies.
Hello everyone, take care of yourself and your relatives from this infection.

thanks for the report. amazing how different countries having different experiences.

stay safe.