Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[PigFish]

Burning my best cigar today... no, I did that yesterday...! That's it, not going to pay my gas bill. It's the end of the world!!!

Lord, forgive me for buying those pangolin boots!!!

-the Pig

[La_Tigre]

31 minutes ago, PigFish said:

Lord, forgive me for buying those pangolin boots!!!

-the Pig

Dammit Pig, why didn’t you store them under the proper conditions!!!!

[PigFish]

13 minutes ago, La_Tigre said:

Dammit Pig, why didn’t you store them under the proper conditions!!!!

... I don't want my feet smelling like cigars!!! ?

[...]

7 hours ago, PigFish said:

... I don't want my feet smelling like cigars!!! ?

You’re doing it wrong. Smelling like cigars is the new Old Spice ?

[Deeg]

Living in Japan I have a pretty close-up view of this debacle playing out in slow motion.  It's especially problematic in a country where overwork and "duty" are the national religion (the Ministry of Health said it didn't test all the crew on the cruise ship initially because they were worried too many people would test positive and "there'd be no one to do the work").  This place will shut down and quarantine only as an absolute last resort.

That said, Dick Pound of the (incredibly corrupt, but that's neither here nor there) IOC said yesterday that Japan had until late May to "contain" the outbreak or "we're looking at a cancellation".  It's hard to overstate what an economic catastrophe that would be for this country, and as such they have a certain incentive to go "all-in" now in a last ditch attempt to do the impossible.  Close schools, enforce staggered shifts at offices to minimize train overcrowding, restrict long-distance travel.  This is probably already a pandemic and that battle is lost, but they might just roll the dice and take those anti-Japanese steps if it's the only possibility of saving the Olympics.

That calls to mind a larger issue for me.  The idea that all this is a media hoax strikes me as the worst kind of tinfoil-hat conspiracy peddling - akin to the antivaxx crowd.  The evidence is clear-cut - this has already cost the world economy a huge amount of money.  Oligarchs and governments are going to take money out of their own pockets based on a hoax - really?  The Olympics might (maybe likely will) be cancelled over a hoax?  The mere idea is patently absurd.  This is very, very serious and anyone counseling people not to be vigilant is doing them a huge disservice.

I consider myself a pretty literate and intellectually curious guy, but I'm no epidemiologist - I'm not qualified to assess what's really happening. But it does strike me that China is lying about the numbers, because they lie about everything.  We know that for many the symptoms are mild - like the cold or flu - and some infected are asymptomatic.  Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that the number of infected is far higher than we know, and the mortality rate much lower.  Let's say the mortality rate is only 1%.  We don't know if that prediction by the Harvard epidemiologist that 40-70% of the world will be infected will come to pass, but for the sake of argument let's say he might at least possibly be right.  Let's take the low end - 40%.

Current global population: 7.8 billion.  40% of that is about 3.1 billion.  1% of 3.1 billion is 31 million.  31 million deaths is a pretty damn big deal, even if any given person is statistically very unlikely to be among them.  Will that happen?  Obviously we don't know.  But the possibility doesn't seem outlandish.  And to call all this a media-driven hoax?  No, I'm not buying.  It's a big deal.  So is influenza and yes, we should talk - and worry - more about that.  But it's not a competition.  It's not either/or.  And being concerned about something doesn't mean you have to stop living your life.  Be smart, be careful, be calm - but don't buy that you don't need to be anything.

[Meklown]

That's a good piece @Deeg. Agree mostly with all parts, especially "It's not either/or". 

I was in Tokyo 2 weeks ago and we were speculating on the possibility of the Olympics being cancelled / very tiny spectator turnout and we will be here to take advantage of the cheap last min deals!

However, I think there may be some overreaction in some quarters. Over here in HK, I almost got kicked out of a public bus for not wearing a face mask (I have no symptoms whatsoever). An old man (in a video being circulated) was arrested for the same "offence". Shelves of food in the supermarket are being emptied. I have friends who quit their jobs (and paid out their notice periods) and not left home for an entire month. The video below shows unacceptable behaviour irregardless of the race or country of a person.

I just think that we should practice good hygiene and social responsibility. Don't go out if you have been to affected areas. Wear a mask and see a doctor when you have symptoms. Practice good personal hygiene by washing hands and disinfecting frequently. 

Either that, or the entire world should be confined to their homes for a month. After that, pick out all the infected homes and quarantine them. The rest are free to carry on!

[Deeg]

The irony is that the masks don't help.  They're just about making people think they're doing something.

[Meklown]

7 minutes ago, Deeg said:

The irony is that the masks don't help.  They're just about making people think they're doing something.

From what I've read (correct me if I'm wrong) -

In a public setting, there is evidence to prove that if you are a carrier, the mask will help to stop you from spreading the disease to those you walk past. If you are not a carrier, there is no conclusive evidence to prove that it helps contraction. There is also no conclusive evidence to prove that it doesn't help contraction. 

There is, however, conclusive evidence that masks helps both ways in a clinical setting.

All these, is assuming that masks are being worn properly, changed every 2 hours, not being reused, etc. There are so many tutorials on how to take off your mask, store them properly, and wear them again effectively. Those make me chuckle.

Oh, and the prices of masks in HK have since quadrupled during the past month.

[Deeg]

Every expert opinion I've read/heard suggests that the masks (even N95) are of no or very little help either way when work by the general public.  They're simply too porous to prevent viruses from passing through them.

[Cigar Surgeon]

And we are off to the races:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-live-updates-cdc-symptoms-prepare-how-mask-san-francisco-latest-a9360196.html

Reports of a female flight attendant diagnosed with coronavirus having repeatedly travelling through Los Angeles International airport is sparking fears of an outbreak in the region, as officials confirm 59 cases of the mysterious illness.

The unidentified flight attendant reportedly serviced a flight from Tel Aviv to Seoul on 15 February, and had travelled through the LAX airport on multiple occaisions before receiving the diagnosis. A majority of cases in the US (39) are among Americans evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Tokyo. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has said that while the immediate risk of coronavirus to American citizens is low, the global situation suggested a pandemic is now likely. 

[Chucko8]

Schools in Hong Kong have continued the shut down now until after Easter. My daughter has now not attended school since 20 January. 

[BlueRidgeFly]

I'm not a doctor, a virologist, an epidemiologist, a scientist... so I'll weigh in here, what the hell.

There is still a lot we do not know about this virus. The number of cases in China is likely underreported. That would imply a lower mortality rate than the 2+% we can determine from the reported number of deaths. A scary thought, though, is that China may also be underreporting the number of deaths, either intentionally or because they can't determine the cause yet (and maybe won't ever be able to) in many cases.

Influenza has a death rate of something like 0.1%. If corona virus proves to be above 2%, and if it becomes a pandemic, then this is a big deal. If it's not as dangerous as that, we'll be relieved. Unfortunately, we are not going to know for a while. You can act certain about what you believe, but it's speculation right now. Being cautious is probably wise.

[Duxnutz]

4 hours ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

And we are off to the races:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-live-updates-cdc-symptoms-prepare-how-mask-san-francisco-latest-a9360196.html

Reports of a female flight attendant diagnosed with coronavirus having repeatedly travelling through Los Angeles International airport is sparking fears of an outbreak in the region, as officials confirm 59 cases of the mysterious illness.

The unidentified flight attendant reportedly serviced a flight from Tel Aviv to Seoul on 15 February, and had travelled through the LAX airport on multiple occaisions before receiving the diagnosis. A majority of cases in the US (39) are among Americans evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Tokyo. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has said that while the immediate risk of coronavirus to American citizens is low, the global situation suggested a pandemic is now likely. 

Chicken or Beef (or Coronavirus!).

[helix]

Canada's Health authorities are cautiously inferring of an inevitable outbreak. Couple days is all if panic buying sets in to see shelves getting bare. Busting up the railway blockade protests now by force in order get goods moving .  I don't spook easily, but I am going to stock up the larder just in case. 

"Health Minister Hajdu said Canadians would be wise to prepare for the possibility that they, or someone in their family, will become ill by stocking up on a week's supply of food and medicine."

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-iran-champagne-repatriation-1.5476434

[SenorPerfecto]

I'm holding out for the lancerovirus.

[Puros Y Vino]

10 minutes ago, SenorPerfecto said:

I'm holding out for the lancerovirus.

I was expecting "Perfectovirus" from you. 

 

[SmokyFontaine]

Large companies (Sony, Microsoft, Facebook) are dropping out of a conference our company attends annually. Seems highly likely the whole show will cancel. Show takes place in San Francisco. Wild stuff.

[Deeg]

25 minutes ago, SmokyFontaine said:

Large companies (Sony, Microsoft, Facebook) are dropping out of a conference our company attends annually. Seems highly likely the whole show will cancel. Show takes place in San Francisco. Wild stuff.

Large-scale public gatherings are about a worst-case scenario for this thing.  Japan has already cancelled the J-League (soccer, hugely popular) schedule for the next month and I think there's going to be pressure on MLB if things don't go well over the next two weeks.  Of course, Japan is fully in "save the Olympics" mode right now.

[Corylax18]

On 2/25/2020 at 6:23 PM, Deeg said:

Living in Japan I have a pretty close-up view of this debacle playing out in slow motion.  It's especially problematic in a country where overwork and "duty" are the national religion (the Ministry of Health said it didn't test all the crew on the cruise ship initially because they were worried too many people would test positive and "there'd be no one to do the work").  This place will shut down and quarantine only as an absolute last resort.

That said, Dick Pound of the (incredibly corrupt, but that's neither here nor there) IOC said yesterday that Japan had until late May to "contain" the outbreak or "we're looking at a cancellation".  It's hard to overstate what an economic catastrophe that would be for this country, and as such they have a certain incentive to go "all-in" now in a last ditch attempt to do the impossible.  Close schools, enforce staggered shifts at offices to minimize train overcrowding, restrict long-distance travel.  This is probably already a pandemic and that battle is lost, but they might just roll the dice and take those anti-Japanese steps if it's the only possibility of saving the Olympics.

That calls to mind a larger issue for me.  The idea that all this is a media hoax strikes me as the worst kind of tinfoil-hat conspiracy peddling - akin to the antivaxx crowd.  The evidence is clear-cut - this has already cost the world economy a huge amount of money.  Oligarchs and governments are going to take money out of their own pockets based on a hoax - really?  The Olympics might (maybe likely will) be cancelled over a hoax?  The mere idea is patently absurd.  This is very, very serious and anyone counseling people not to be vigilant is doing them a huge disservice.

I consider myself a pretty literate and intellectually curious guy, but I'm no epidemiologist - I'm not qualified to assess what's really happening. But it does strike me that China is lying about the numbers, because they lie about everything.  We know that for many the symptoms are mild - like the cold or flu - and some infected are asymptomatic.  Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that the number of infected is far higher than we know, and the mortality rate much lower.  Let's say the mortality rate is only 1%.  We don't know if that prediction by the Harvard epidemiologist that 40-70% of the world will be infected will come to pass, but for the sake of argument let's say he might at least possibly be right.  Let's take the low end - 40%.

Current global population: 7.8 billion.  40% of that is about 3.1 billion.  1% of 3.1 billion is 31 million.  31 million deaths is a pretty damn big deal, even if any given person is statistically very unlikely to be among them.  Will that happen?  Obviously we don't know.  But the possibility doesn't seem outlandish.  And to call all this a media-driven hoax?  No, I'm not buying.  It's a big deal.  So is influenza and yes, we should talk - and worry - more about that.  But it's not a competition.  It's not either/or.  And being concerned about something doesn't mean you have to stop living your life.  Be smart, be careful, be calm - but don't buy that you don't need to be anything.

Using other's irrational panic as justification for your own irrational panic is not constructive. Its actually the exact opposite and only serves to worsen a situation like this. Panicking is never the right response, to any situation, regardless of severity. An educated, rational, thoughtful response(however rare that may be) will almost always generate better results. 

Unfortunately, Educated, Rational, and Thoughtful(factual) doesn't sell advertising, so we get overhyped conjecture and panic

I haven't read a single post that states this is a hoax(I didn't re read all of them though), but plenty have taken the view that the media have blown the entire situation WAY out of proportion. I'm in that camp.

I may be mistaken, but I think we all agree that China has not been providing factual data. So lets throw that data out the window. (for scientific purposes the data is worthless) I think we can trust numbers that are coming out of other countries though. So, lets do some quick math: 

4,281 total cases, 70 deaths. a .016% death rate, much lower than the death rate of the regular old flu at about .1% 

my sources:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Deeg]

First of all, 70 deaths in 4,281 cases is not an .016% mortality rate, it's a 1.6% mortality rate.  Which is kind of, you know, an important difference.

 

 

[MIKA27]

On 2/26/2020 at 2:13 AM, PigFish said:

Burning my best cigar today... no, I did that yesterday...! That's it, not going to pay my gas bill. It's the end of the world!!!

Lord, forgive me for buying those pangolin boots!!!

-the Pig

The lord may forgive you for buying those boots, but I won't !  Enjoy your "Best cigars" in good health! 

[Ken Gargett]

46 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

Using other's irrational panic as justification for your own irrational panic is not constructive. Its actually the exact opposite and only serves to worsen a situation like this. Panicking is never the right response, to any situation, regardless of severity. An educated, rational, thoughtful response(however rare that may be) will almost always generate better results. 

Unfortunately, Educated, Rational, and Thoughtful(factual) doesn't sell advertising, so we get overhyped conjecture and panic

I haven't read a single post that states this is a hoax(I didn't re read all of them though), but plenty have taken the view that the media have blown the entire situation WAY out of proportion. I'm in that camp.

I may be mistaken, but I think we all agree that China has not been providing factual data. So lets throw that data out the window. (for scientific purposes the data is worthless) I think we can trust numbers that are coming out of other countries though. So, lets do some quick math: 

4,281 total cases, 70 deaths. a .016% death rate, much lower than the death rate of the regular old flu at about .1% 

my sources:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

leave aside the decimal point issue, if china is lying, which seems to be the general consensus, what are the odds that they are lying to make the virus seem worse rather than not as bad as it is. hence, i think we can assume that the figures from china are either accurate (unlikely) or worse, possibly much worse. so throwing their info/data/figures out the window makes no sense at all. it sends the conclusions in the wrong direction. 

toss in that, as someone said, indonesia is reporting no cases. not a single sneeze. do we buy that? so things are, at best, as reported, or far more likely, far worse.

worth noting i spoke at length to a leading hospitality figure this morning. projects are under threat. a large number of restaurants apparently believe that they will go under. a number of hotels have reported that the last month was the worst month they have ever had. ditto restaurants. many hotels are offering half price rooms for the forseeable future. i believe qantas reported one of its worst months. and we are far less concerned than many countries. at least that is my feeling. 

the problem here - we have had 23 cases, 15 recovered and the rest, no deaths at all as yet.

yet the perception is of something far worse. tourism is suffering massively. and the sad thing for all these businesses is that this won't be over next week. it will go on and on. people will want the vaccine. and then they will want evidence that the vaccine works. then they will want to be sure no new cases. then if they are fully okay with everything, it is not as though they will go straight to the plane and head here or wherever. bookings need to be made, holidays planned.

his view was that the perception of this is that it could easily take two years or certainly a good chunk of that. a lot of businesses will suffer. 

[Deeg]

1 minute ago, Ken Gargett said:

 

leave aside the decimal point issue, if china is lying, which seems to be the general consensus, what are the odds that they are lying to make the virus seem worse rather than not as bad as it is. hence, i think we can assume that the figures from china are either accurate (unlikely) or worse, possibly much worse. so throwing their info/data/figures out the window makes no sense at all. it sends the conclusions in the wrong direction. 

toss in that, as someone said, indonesia is reporting no cases. not a single sneeze. do we buy that? so things are, at best, as reported, or far more likely, far worse.

worth noting i spoke at length to a leading hospitality figure this morning. projects are under threat. a large number of restaurants apparently believe that they will go under. a number of hotels have reported that the last month was the worst month they have ever had. ditto restaurants. many hotels are offering half price rooms for the forseeable future. i believe qantas reported one of its worst months. and we are far less concerned than many countries. at least that is my feeling. 

the problem here - we have had 23 cases, 15 recovered and the rest, no deaths at all as yet.

yet the perception is of something far worse. tourism is suffering massively. and the sad thing for all these businesses is that this won't be over next week. it will go on and on. people will want the vaccine. and then they will want evidence that the vaccine works. then they will want to be sure no new cases. then if they are fully okay with everything, it is not as though they will go straight to the plane and head here or wherever. bookings need to be made, holidays planned.

his view was that the perception of this is that it could easily take two years or certainly a good chunk of that. a lot of businesses will suffer. 

It's hard to overstate how much money Japan will lose - they've spent insane amounts on construction and infrastructure, never mind the lost tourist revenue - if the Olympics are cancelled.  This is bad for business everywhere for sure, and Japan probably the worst.  Again, I find it hard to believe that the powers that be - who stand to lose the most money - would be blowing this out of proportion in the advancement of some nebulous plot to panic the world.  If anything it's worse than what's been reported, as you note Ken, and the world's delay in taking real action supports that argument.

We don't know what the human cost of Coronavirus will be yet, but we do know that the financial impact will be huge.

[Ken Gargett]

2 minutes ago, Deeg said:

It's hard to overstate how much money Japan will lose - they've spent insane amounts on construction and infrastructure, never mind the lost tourist revenue - if the Olympics are cancelled.  This is bad for business everywhere for sure, and Japan probably the worst.  Again, I find it hard to believe that the powers that be - who stand to lose the most money - would be blowing this out of proportion in the advancement of some nebulous plot to panic the world.  If anything it's worse than what's been reported, as you note Ken, and the world's delay in taking real action supports that argument.

We don't know what the human cost of Coronavirus will be yet, but we do know that the financial impact will be huge.

agreed. 

i would also state, and i am not suggesting that this thread go down roads which are barred to us as this is intended as a general comment, it has the potential to topple governments. the financial cost - if that turns into recession, it could be hugely costly for govts. 

one thing we can count on is that the financial impact, as you state, will be huge and that has consequences elsewhere. i would think that both the UK and Australia govts would be very pleased that they have had elections recently. 

[Deeg]

2 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

agreed. 

i would also state, and i am not suggesting that this thread go down roads which are barred to us as this is intended as a general comment, it has the potential to topple governments. the financial cost - if that turns into recession, it could be hugely costly for govts. 

one thing we can count on is that the financial impact, as you state, will be huge and that has consequences elsewhere. i would think that both the UK and Australia govts would be very pleased that they have had elections recently. 

I wonder if there are any countries that have elections coming up? ?