Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?


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Wife just got back from a warehouse store and said it was chaos. She was doing general shopping, but yah, in Oregon things are ramping up. Then of all the times...I started out with a cold, now have flu-like symptoms only without the stomach stuff. Heh. Who knows, I might be FOH's first case! If that's not good for a cigar sampler, I don't know what the hell is! 

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The impact of coronavirus where I am?   Hmm.  Where to begin.  Last weekend, when I left the hospital on Friday night, we had 9 cases in our ICU.  When I came in on Monday, the ICU was completely

Might be irreverent after I posted the currently existing horror scenarios back on page 1 and 2 of this thread on January 30th - ages ago in this fast developing news circle. So, to end my commen

I’m ready, come what may...  

4 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

So far in the US, both in Washington state, 2 men died. One was 50, one was 70, both had underlying medical issues. 

I tend to agree with @Corylax18 on this one, I don't think this is as big of a problem as the media is blowing it out to be. SARS was much worse as far as mortality rates are concerned. 

You have to factor in that the lower mortality rate actually means COVID-19 is going to kill many more people than SARS did.  It’s much harder to identify carriers (some are totally asymptomatic) and most are feeling well enough to be mobile spreading the disease for days. This virus is in a kind of pandemic sweet spot - serious enough to kill millions, mild enough to spread globally.

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4 minutes ago, FatherOfPugs said:

Not sure where you took a stats class, but......I'm going with no......from people in TX who had it were saying they felt the coronavirus is like the flu. Most have been quarantined in San Antonio. 

No modern flu has a 2% mortality rate like COVID-19.  Apples and oranges.

Even if you assume that rate is too high based on undisclosed carriers - say double the actual rate - that would still mean roughly 30 million deaths worldwide if predictions that 40% (or more) of global population eventually becomes infected.  It's not a certainty by any means but well within the realm of realistic outcomes.  We ignore it (or minimize it) at our peril.

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9 minutes ago, FatherOfPugs said:

There won't be 30 million deaths, that's fear mongering and BS propaganda. This is NOT even close to as bad as the media is making it out to be. It's not ignoring it, it's simply applying more than just elementary thinking. Apply some basic reasoning and people would realize this mass hysteria is just that, mass hysteria and panic propagated by the media. Coronavirus is not going to wipe out 30 million people. That's fear mongering plain and simple. 

It might sound goofy to say, but I wouldn’t be so quick to knock fear mongering. This might be one of the rare occasions when fear mongering saves lives. During the H1N1 outbreak in 1918 a bunch of governments censored news of the flu and it killed at least 40 million people, maybe as many as 100 million. If fear causes people to avoid crowds a little more, or wash their hands more frequently, that’ll probably result in fewer eventual fatalities.

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I am a total paranoid prepper from way back.

Prepper Rule #1:   Live _way_ out in the sticks.     If you don't follow Rule #1 the rest of the rules do not matter imho....if your high rise neighbors in the big city are unprepared that will become _your_ problem in a hurry....

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This is the era we live in - fundamental distrust of science is rampant and science that makes us uncomfortable (or worse yet, scares us) is labeled as manifest of a massive deep-state conspiracy.  The problem is, when it comes to infectious disease this sort of attitude has consequences for everyone, not just those (like anti-vaxxers) who act on it.

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my niece received this from the Uni. good on them, letting people know. spreading far and wide! 

 

Dear xx,

I want to let you know that this morning, the University was advised by Queensland Health that one of our students has been confirmed with COVID-19, and is in a stable condition in hospital.

Our Student Services team are providing support to the student and we wish them a speedy recovery.

We understand from the authorities, the student arrived in Brisbane from Dubai on 23 February, where they spent 14 days after leaving China in early February. Shortly after arriving in Brisbane the student started to feel unwell. They made the right decision to not attend campus.

A flatmate and fellow UQ student, who is understood to be feeling well, has been tested for the virus as a precaution and is awaiting results. Regardless of the result, the student will be required to self-isolate for 14 days and not attend campus.

The University is in contact with Queensland Health and is working swiftly to assist with any measures necessary, and we will continue to follow Government advice and protocols as we have done from the beginning.

For the past few months, our Incident Management Team have been preparing for a number of possibilities and have a number of safeguards in place.

I understand some staff and students may feel concerned and I want to assure you that the University will follow Government advice and, at this point in time, we are continuing to operate as usual. As previously advised, all staff and students should practice healthy hygiene habits in line with government advice, including frequent handwashing and staying home if unwell.

Our FAQ page provides the latest information for staff and students. We will continue to update this page with the latest advice.

We will continue to keep you updated as more information and advice is provided by the Queensland Government.

Regards
Peter

Professor Peter Høj AC
MSc, PhD DUniv mult., FNAI, FTSE
Vice-Chancellor and President

Office of the Vice-Chancellor
The University of Queensland

 

 

Image

 

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6 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

No, and no again, just because someone disagrees with you. And I'm not anti-vaccine by any stretch of the imagination. 

We live in an era of healthy skepticism of all the crap that is flying around the media and "scientific institutions." And for good reason. 

I worked in academia for 7 years, at 2 different major research 1 universities in the U.S., I've been published as 1st and 2nd author on multiple papers in major journals and even have 3 book chapters to my name, so I'm going to throw out the you have no idea what you're talking about comments right now. This is also what I learned about "institutions of higher learning" from first hand experience working there:

1) ALL researchers have an agenda. Period. They do. Their research fits into their agenda.

2) ALL data can be manipulated and mined to fit the said agenda. 

3) More times than not, researchers do NOT following the scientific method the way they should. They HARK (Hypothesize After Results are Known), which I found at my last stop, which is why I changed professions. I could not work for a place that allowed data mining. They talk all the time about scientific integrity and then don't follow it.

4) Many researchers studies are NOT designed well. If you have a well designed study, the results will add to the literature whether or not your hypothesis is supported or refuted. Many studies being published now, only publish if results support the hypothesis. This is wrong. All findings need to be reported.

5) Follow the money. Find out who finances said studies and this will usually tell you why researchers find what they do. It's really simple. Why? If the researcher doesn't find what the financier wants, do you think they'll get more money? NOPE. 

6) Infectious disease studies fall into the above just like anything else. 

There is no fundamental distrust of science, that is a gross misconception and conspiracy held by a certain faction of the population. What there is, is a healthy skepticism of what we are constantly being spoon fed. For example, I remember when eating eggs was perfectly ok, then according to 1 study, eggs became bad, you could only eat 1 egg per week. Then it shifted again, eggs really aren't that bad for you. No wonder the public gets confused and is skeptical. Even the dad gum researchers can't figure out which way it is. They waffle. 

Like any infection disease: 

1) wash your hands more as anyone should (after the toilet, coughing, sneezing, etc.)

2) eat a proper diet and get the vitamins and minerals help boost the immune system

3) stop doing immunosuppressant activities (e.g., limit alcohol, tobacco, vaping, etc.)

4) get some exercise, don't just sit on your a$$

5) have some damn common sense

Funny thing is #5 can't be bought with money nor taught in a university. You either have it or you don't. And I have met plenty of the latter. ?

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12 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

3) stop doing immunosuppressant activities (e.g., limit alcohol, tobacco, vaping, etc.)

Wait, what? Someone ban this guy? ?

4 hours ago, Deeg said:

Economically it’s already devastating. For me, this has immediacy.

Just consider this: none of us are perfect. Almost everyone is going to err one way or the other in their assessment of how this plays out, even the professionals. So it’s a near-certainty that you’ll either be too cautious or not cautious enough.

In all seriousness, I feel that economic devastation is directly caused by people being too cautious. People being too cautious leads directly to bad business for the hospitality industry in particular. Old restaurants in HK that have been open for decades (even survived through SARS) have closed down now. While I feel that everyone should take this seriously and be sufficiently prepared, I don't think it should mean stocking up on a whole months' worth of food etc. 

Like Deeg mentioned, there's no way we're gonna achieve perfect balance - but that does not mean we should not try. Be cautious enough to limit the spread of the disease, but also don't be paranoid and cause industries/businesses to crash. 

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15 hours ago, FatherOfPugs said:

No, and no again, just because someone disagrees with you. And I'm not anti-vaccine by any stretch of the imagination. 

We live in an era of healthy skepticism of all the crap that is flying around the media and "scientific institutions." And for good reason. 

I worked in academia for 7 years, at 2 different major research 1 universities in the U.S., I've been published as 1st and 2nd author on multiple papers in major journals and even have 3 book chapters to my name, so I'm going to throw out the you have no idea what you're talking about comments right now. This is also what I learned about "institutions of higher learning" from first hand experience working there:

1) ALL researchers have an agenda. Period. They do. Their research fits into their agenda.

2) ALL data can be manipulated and mined to fit the said agenda. 

3) More times than not, researchers do NOT following the scientific method the way they should. They HARK (Hypothesize After Results are Known), which I found at my last stop, which is why I changed professions. I could not work for a place that allowed data mining. They talk all the time about scientific integrity and then don't follow it.

4) Many researchers studies are NOT designed well. If you have a well designed study, the results will add to the literature whether or not your hypothesis is supported or refuted. Many studies being published now, only publish if results support the hypothesis. This is wrong. All findings need to be reported.

5) Follow the money. Find out who finances said studies and this will usually tell you why researchers find what they do. It's really simple. Why? If the researcher doesn't find what the financier wants, do you think they'll get more money? NOPE. 

6) Infectious disease studies fall into the above just like anything else. 

There is no fundamental distrust of science, that is a gross misconception and conspiracy held by a certain faction of the population. What there is, is a healthy skepticism of what we are constantly being spoon fed. For example, I remember when eating eggs was perfectly ok, then according to 1 study, eggs became bad, you could only eat 1 egg per week. Then it shifted again, eggs really aren't that bad for you. No wonder the public gets confused and is skeptical. Even the dad gum researchers can't figure out which way it is. They waffle. 

Like any infection disease: 

1) wash your hands more as anyone should (after the toilet, coughing, sneezing, etc.)

2) eat a proper diet and get the vitamins and minerals help boost the immune system

3) stop doing immunosuppressant activities (e.g., limit alcohol, tobacco, vaping, etc.)

4) get some exercise, don't just sit on your a$$

5) have some damn common sense

Also published in academia as sole author. Have to say though, there is truth in research and reasons not to be skeptical. People build their legacy on peer review and attacking faulty logic and as well as replacing it with good science will secure a reputation that will give you a good life anywhere you go and secure that legacy.

The medical sciences are particularly brutal on studies and results, as the money to be made by being "correct", in this field, is unbelievable. Dont think you will pass an agenda unchecked with statistics and omitting caveats in your conclusion on a major public issue. Regardless, in all sciences, the one thing in we should be particularly aware and more trusting of is consensus.

Where consensus exists, multiple methods reach similar conclusions we should pay attention. A lot of the distrust is healthy, sure. Espeacially against the media. But, when 99% of researchers say we have an undeniable corelation, we shouldnt be so fast to accept an antithesis because if someone could expose that truth they would, noone is paying off every researcher in a given field to keep the truth away, and certainly not everyone in the field is like-minded or willing to accept bias. I think that it is more dangerous to distrust facts and carry on about our business while possibly excerbating the situation simply because we're comfortable at the moment.

Sorry for the rant...

That said, There has not been 1 case in CO yet, and i cant find clorox wipes to clean my kitchen... Yes its ridiculous.

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Im hearing about supply chain disruptions coming down the pipe. Should be interesting in a month or so being most goods are made in China. 

I'm getting on a plane to Punta Cana in a few days...I've been watching the news diligently seeing if there is a last minute cancellation of my trip. Already cancelled my Italy trip for June. 

Lots of my employees are getting grounded 

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I come from a long line of non-alarmists. That said, I can’t help thinking going forward with my long-planned trip to Seattle in 2 weeks would be foolish, and irresponsible as far as the rest of my family is concerned. And the prospect of being quarantined away from home would be financially devastating. 

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16 minutes ago, Islandboy said:

I come from a long line of non-alarmists. That said, I can’t help thinking going forward with my long-planned trip to Seattle in 2 weeks would be foolish, and irresponsible as far as the rest of my family is concerned. And the prospect of being quarantined away from home would be financially devastating. 

I'm hoping my planned trip to your island in July won't get disrupted but I doubt I would cancel on my own unless the spread of this thing gets much bigger by then.

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Good indication of the danger of this virus . They can spin it all they want.  

Thousands held on cruise ship off California (Governor declared state of emergency) over coronavirus fears . At least six people who were hospitalized after being taken off the Diamond Princess have died.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/thousands-held-on-cruise-ship-off-california-over-coronavirus-fears/ar-BB10Lr6i?ocid=spartandhp

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