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Everyday, we hear how bad things are going around the world regarding this Pandemic. By no means are we past it and there is still a world of hurt ahead.  But I was going through the thread on what this mean to Cuban cigar production and wondered how would other sectors fare? As someone whose roots in Italy I thought about what Italy will look like post COVID-19 and what their industries were going to look like. In particular, wine. I LOVE Italian wine.  I cant help wonder what will become of 2019/20 vintages? Its surely not on the minds of a lot of Italians there given the misery that country is going through, but I can't help wonder what comes next for that one industry. 

Would they have the manpower/will to pick up where they left off? Can they?  Would people be wary of grapes picked and processed by potentially infected workers?  Is there risk? 

What do you see in the future? For an industry, a country, a city, yourself?  You don't have to finish my train of thought on the Italian wine sector, but feel free to do so.  :D

So, what kind of a world will we see post COVID-19?

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One thought I had, and was shared by friend in the stock market biz, is that one "good" thing that may come of this. As the whole world is impacted economy wise, its not like its one or 2 countries in a bad recession. We are ALL going to be down, so the turn back up may not be a devastating as what is thought as we are ALL in this. Time will tell....

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Is the alcohol content of wine high enough to kill the virus?

edit: Not to turn a blind eye to the essence of your question, but I think in a lot of cases it will come down to practical questions about safe processing, etc. 

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I think I read that 70% alcohol will kill the virus. So I think the alcohol content won’t be strong enough.

I’m wondering how Americans are going to view a few things here. Bailouts to companies that spend all their profits on stock buy backs.  How people view might change their views on minimum wage burger flippers and custodians. What about the teachers/baby sitters that take care of our demon spawns while we go to work. And the it her essential jobs like grocery store workers, truck drivers and of course medical and support staff. Many people might look down on some of those people. I’m curious of the support next time there’s a bond vote to give hospitals more money or set aside money for first responders. What about support next time grocery store workers or truck drivers go on strike? 

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Overall, I expect a pretty strong recovery, even if its not a full bounce back. If I get a stimulus check I'm going to do everything I can to buy some of those FAANG stocks, etc. Might be the biggest discount we'll ever see on some of these.

Assuming you can get the workers to harvest, I think we could have great vintages of a lot of agricultural products. Ambient air pollution worldwide is going to be a modern all time low and plants breathe too. It will be fascinating to see if we can taste the difference a couple of years from now in our wine, cigars, etc.

 

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I'm pretty optimistic. There will be a difficult period ahead, and some businesses won't make it, but as world crises go, this one is relatively manageable. 

If you like Italian wine, and people are dumb enough to avoid it in the time ahead, enjoy the great deals you're going to get. Viruses don't live long outside of their hosts. 

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Good Question Bundwallah, however i don't think the wine industry will be more affected than under a normal flu (where much more people used to die). However, the demand may suffer as will transportation/distribution IF the situation outlasts the summer. Only time can tell.

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Mt own personal view is that everything will go back to normal, or rather whatever it was we were living in prior to Covid-19. Big business will get bailed out on my dime, the masses will be back to making decisions against their own interest and everything else will be forgotten.

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Great responses so far.  :) I think overall things will crawl back to normal.  And normal may be different.  I can see a lot of posturing by governments.  They'll do a bit of "mea culpa" about not being prepared enough or at all.  There'll be talk of investing in healthcare, supply chains, etc  but when it comes to vote on these things they'll stop and think.."oh..this is a lot of money for something that isn't happening right now".  They'll carry on as if nothing happened.  And all the lower wage positions that are trudging through right now from delivery people, to cooks, to grocery store workers will probably end up getting paycuts and being told its to help 'the economy".  One thing is becoming clear. In a market system, the best, most important asset are the workers.  Expect plenty of spin from your local media telling you that that is not the case.  

In terms of social activity.  It will be a long time before people go to concerts, sports events and even restaurants without being  paranoid about the slightest cough or sneeze in their midst.  I take transit, so even hopping on a bus or subway is going to make me squeamish.  Hopefully, people individually will learn how to prepare for events that require them to stay home for extended periods.

As for the wine. :P Maybe the risk is low, but there be some stigma with products using raw materials from this time period.  But then again, I buy fresh produce right now and take my chances.  As for cigars.   I will definitely be freezing the hell out of any cigars with box codes from DEC 2019 to whenever this is declared over.  

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20 minutes ago, bundwallah said:

One thing is becoming clear. In a market system, the best, most important asset are the workers

I hope once this is all over,  that there is an about-face in terms of who are financially valued within our society.    

Hand in hand with valuing the service industries more,  I think this situation has highlighted lots of unscrupulous, flimsy industries who often seek a kings ransom for their "services".   I hope society as a whole, turns its back on any individual/company that operates in an immoral fashion.

Whether it be illegal bank charges, slum landlords, fraudsters, price gaugers,   I'm glad the larger part of society, is becoming more and more disgusted by those who seek to make large profits, for little work, and seeing the customer as a potential victim, instead of a valued custom.

 

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3 hours ago, bundwallah said:

Expect plenty of spin from your local media telling you that that is not the case.  

seeing a lot of denial and posturing going on already

3 hours ago, bundwallah said:

It will be a long time before people go to concerts, sports events and even restaurants without being  paranoid about the slightest cough or sneeze in their midst. 

probably depends on whether we become inoculated/immune after we all get it or if the disease mutates every year like the flu, wouldn't you think?

 

3 hours ago, bundwallah said:

As for the wine. :P Maybe the risk is low

I've been thinking about this... how long can the virus live outside the body?... Isn't it 72 hours?  In which case, wouldn't the stigma be more justifiably directed at the people handling the products we consume? 

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I think the band  Midnight Oil said it pretty well ;)

 

The rich get richer
The poor get the picture
The bombs never hit you when you're down so low

Some got pollution
Some revolution
There must be some solution but I just don't know

The bosses want decisions
The workers need ambitions
There won't be no collisions whey they move so slow

Nothing ever happens
Nothing ever matters
No one ever tells me so what am I to know

 

 

band 

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22 hours ago, bundwallah said:

So, what kind of a world will we see post COVID-19?

I'm wondering if this virus is going to persist beyond 2019. We may get over this year's wave, and maybe it will decline, but it may return hard each season. Our post COVID-19 world might be one of learning to deal with it better. We'll hopefully know more about, have better prevention and treatment, develop a vaccine, acquire mass immunity, and deal. We'll have to.

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1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFly said:

I'm wondering if this virus is going to persist beyond 2019. We may get over this year's wave, and maybe it will decline, but it may return hard each season. Our post COVID-19 world might be one of learning to deal with it better. We'll hopefully know more about, have better prevention and treatment, develop a vaccine, acquire mass immunity, and deal. We'll have to.

While this thing has hit us like a freight train, there is hope. It seems this virus doesn't mutate much so treatments and long term vaccines will be more easily developed and secondary infection not likely. New information coming seems to indicate the mortality rate is likely at par with or even less than the flu. The overwhelming majority of confirmed cases are those whom exhibited severe symptoms or typical Covid19 symptoms. However, there are many people who are asymptomatic, exhibit cold symptoms or basic flu symptoms from Covid19 that haven't been tested. 

Sadly, restaurants are taking a huge hit. An industry with slim margins to begin with can't sustain such huge interruption of cash flow. I believe this pandemic killed the restaurant boom we have been seeing in the past decade. I hope I'm wrong but if people don't start going out to eat again very soon I think a lot of restaurants will go under.

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4 hours ago, BlueRidgeFly said:

I'm wondering if this virus is going to persist beyond 2019. We may get over this year's wave, and maybe it will decline, but it may return hard each season. Our post COVID-19 world might be one of learning to deal with it better. We'll hopefully know more about, have better prevention and treatment, develop a vaccine, acquire mass immunity, and deal. We'll have to.

I will bet you a box of cigars it persists until at least 2020 and into the second quarter, I will even give you 3-1 odds because im generous and I like a good bet :D  

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17 minutes ago, HopeUgood said:

I will bet you a box of cigars it persists until at least 2020 and into the second quarter, I will even give you 3-1 odds because im generous and I like a good bet :D  

Assume you mean 2021. Otherwise I win the bet right here!

I'll let you know where to send the three boxes....

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Commercial or office landlords might find they lack tenants once things are back to normal - since we got so good at working from home proving productivity may even have been enhanced away from the battery hen cubes.

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21 hours ago, bundwallah said:

I will definitely be freezing the hell out of any cigars with box codes from DEC 2019 to whenever this is declared over.  

 not sure if it's true but i was reading freezing the virus could make it go dormant and stay viable until unfrozen, you would prob be better off just letting them rest for a few weeks

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36 minutes ago, davidv said:

 not sure if it's true but i was reading freezing the virus could make it go dormant and stay viable until unfrozen, you would prob be better off just letting them rest for a few weeks

I believe you're right.  I was watching a video where a doctor was instructing on how to wipe down groceries and mentioned frozen items should be wiped down too as the freezing process would just put it to "sleep" if you didn't.

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All I know is when and if this thing ends , new world order will emerge .we as humans cannot keep doing what we have been doing ,and expect no consequences.

This is a water shed moment in world history everything MUST change 

and to all my FOH brothers and sisters where ever you might be stay safe and look after each other 

cheers 

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1 hour ago, Fuzz said:

I don't have that much faith in humanity to change.

Your right 

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On 3/25/2020 at 10:17 PM, Habana Mike said:

Assume you mean 2021. Otherwise I win the bet right here!

I'll let you know where to send the three boxes....

 

Don't blow my sham bet Im trying to make over here
😀

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  Yeah, a year after this leaves the West and you'll be surprised how quickly things will get back to just how they were before. They'll be an end of news piece about how it's ripping through an African state etc then the weather

  If anything there will be more delivery services for food etc than before as a left over

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