Things are tense in Havana

[El Presidente]

I was on the phone yesterday with friends in Havana and things are certainly tense.  it was described to me as a "powder keg" but that is only one person's view. 

Food shortages, power rationing, unilateral restrictive decisions at supermarkets, big fines for the most mundane of violations, big ques for everything, street protests.  

Touch base with your mates, family and friends there. Let us know what they are feeling/seeing. 

 

[JohnnyO]

My sister in law went to El Palco market in Playa at 5:30 am for an 8am opening and there was already 100's in line. John 

[Habana Mike]

I chat with Osvaldo Vega nearly every day.

It is very hard there now. He doesn't think they would make it without some outside assistance.

Wonder how the government would handle Seattle/Portland like protests....likely unlikely to happen though one never knows how far you can push a population.

Very sad.

[ElJavi76]

Friend told me the queues are long at the market and things are tough. However, nothing about protests. They tend to make sure those don't flare up very often.

[argrovesjd]

Hearing the same from Havana. Even the “party members” are finding things more difficult.

Situation is fairly desperate in Varadero as well from what I’m told.

USD is trading at 1:1.50 or more with the CUC. I look for the screws to be tightened to a degree not seen before if the President wins re-election. Polls in Florida are too close to call, so something could possibly happen in this regard in the next 30 days.

SCOTUS pick could pacify the diaspora in Miami, so this is just me speculating.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[SigSauer516]

Long live Socialism

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, argrovesjd said:

I look for the screws to be tightened to a degree not seen before if the President wins re-election. Polls in Florida are too close to call, so something could possibly happen in this regard in the next 30 days.

I hope not. I'm really not sure what else could be done. Just about every possible sanction is already in place. What we're seeing is the desired consequence of these sanctions so say the foreign policy geniuses, and this is what is supposed to spur some kind of overthrow of the regime according to sanction theory. Well, we're waiting.

I very much would like to think that the military commanders who presumably have families perennially suffering through this nonsense decade after decade would stage a coup and end this. 

 

[Nino]

3 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I very much would like to think that the military commanders who presumably have families perennially suffering through this nonsense decade after decade would stage a coup and end this. 

 

Would be paradox if the military which is profiting and not suffering from this misery would take themselves out of the scene.

I certainly don't see it coming.

 

6 hours ago, ElJavi76 said:

Friend told me the queues are long at the market and things are tough. However, nothing about protests. They tend to make sure those don't flare up very often.

This. ^^

Much grumbling, no protest.

[BrightonCorgi]

The government will use this current situation to reinforce existing policies.

[helix]

Will let everyone starve to death , the socialists will never capitulate except by force.

[MrBirdman]

Why does everyone keep calling this socialism - it’s (actual) Communism: ownership of the means of production by the state. 

[Kaptain Karl]

1 hour ago, MrBirdman said:

Why does everyone keep calling this socialism - it’s (actual) Communism: ownership of the means of production by the state. 

Well yes you're right, and also partly wrong. Socialism is the ownership of the means of production by the state. Communism is the socialist revolution based upon class struggle which reorganizes society into a classless society, ran by the people. (in theory, never in practice). Socialism can be internationalist and nationalist, and with varying levels of its intensity, which makes it far more harder to clearly define than Communism. Hence why the confusion that the Scandinavian countries are socialist, when really they're highly capitalistic, yet highly taxed welfare states. 

[Nino]

6 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

The government will use this current situation to reinforce existing policies.

They are currently very busy at that, you are correct.

1 hour ago, juri said:

im no expert on Cuba but from what I’ve read COVID has wrecked havoc on their economy 

Not really - economy was piss poor before Covid and it has just upgraded to piss poorer.

As the Spanish saying goes - from Guatemala to Guatepeor or translated say from Islamabad to Islamaworse ...

[Bijan]

My dictionary has it as:

Socialism:

a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

By the laxer "regulated" definition all modern states are more or less socialist. Very much so compared to a century ago.

By the stricter "owned" definition practically only the remaining communist countries would be socialist and even there many of them have more and more private industry.

[StevenAver]

Regardless of anyone's opinion on Socialism or Communism, Cuba is a dictatorship.  The reality of this situation is that the life line from Venezuela is over. hence why you see the same challenges that occurred in the 90's when the Soviet collapsed. The Cuban dictatorship is out allies ready to give it  a free handout. Its time for change and only the people can make that happen.

[Nino]

4 minutes ago, StevenAver said:

Its time for change and only the people can make that happen.

Cannot agree more.

Let me add to your quote :

Its time for change and only the Cuban people can make that happen.

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Why does everyone keep calling this socialism - it’s (actual) Communism: ownership of the means of production by the state. 

Cuba is modern feudalism 

[NickV]

Im sorry for their struggles and hope things improve.

 

Any thoughts on what the current situation translates to on the cigar front?

[MrBirdman]

I think the responses illustrate that these words have differing meaning based on factors like your domestic politics. Socialism's definition does - as has been pointed out - include nationalization of industry, but an economy-wide nationalization with limited ownership is generally not. Of course whether a welfare state (which is a socialist policy) makes a country socialist is mostly semantics at the end of the day, and sort of misses the point: all advanced democracies have some level of socialism, but it's function is as much about supporting capitalism as anything else. That's not the case in countries like Cuba, obviously. 

5 hours ago, Kaptain Karl said:

Communism is the socialist revolution based upon class struggle which reorganizes society into a classless society...

I should have clarified that I was referring to so-called "historical communism" (i.e. Soviet style communism). But yes technically Marx's historical materialism envisions class struggle leading to a proletarian revolution. 

[MrBirdman]

5 hours ago, StevenAver said:

Regardless of anyone's opinion on Socialism or Communism, Cuba is a dictatorship.  The reality of this situation is that the life line from Venezuela is over. hence why you see the same challenges that occurred in the 90's when the Soviet collapsed. The Cuban dictatorship is out allies ready to give it  a free handout. Its time for change and only the people can make that happen.

I'll give Castro this - he was brilliant at manipulating geo-politics to solicit international economic support for his regime and the Cuban economy beyond what any minor Caribbean power normally would.

[helix]

 

38 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

I'll give Castro this - he was brilliant at manipulating geo-politics to solicit economic support for his regime and the Cuban economy beyond what any minor Caribbean power normally would.

Kill all the decenters immediately and everyone else is too afraid not to believe in the revolution , just need to believe.  

[MrBirdman]

17 minutes ago, helix said:

 

Kill all the decenters immediately and everyone else is too afraid not to believe in the revolution , just need to believe.  

With ya, though I was talking about international support rather than domestic. 

[argrovesjd]

Two of these were purchased today with $5.00 USD.  Milk for the next week for a family of four.  "Only" three hours in the line. And she feels very lucky to have them.

 

 

[NSXCIGAR]

9 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Why does everyone keep calling this socialism - it’s (actual) Communism: ownership of the means of production by the state. 

Socialism in the classical sense, not "third way" Scandinavian-style socialism or what people refer to as "democratic socialism" which is classically referred to as a "hampered market" economy. I would also argue that the pre-Rev economy of Cuba and most of the "corrupt" Latin American economies would be classically referred to as mercantilist or "corporatist" economies. 

Fascism was classically referred to as Italian or German-style socialism and Communism as Russian or later, Soviet-style socialism which would most appropriately fit Cuba.

As is often the case classical definitions are much less confusing and accurate so that's what I typically use. 

[NSXCIGAR]

3 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

I'll give Castro this - he was brilliant at manipulating geo-politics to solicit international economic support for his regime and the Cuban economy beyond what any minor Caribbean power normally would.

No argument there. Charismatic, ruthless and a powerful speaker as is the case with most cult of personality dictators. Since Canel has taken over it's one of the few situations where this type of government has carried on without a cult of personality leader or direct family member. I suppose you could make a case for China but there were major changes after Mao and Xi is positioning himself as somewhat of that type of leader. Maybe Vietnam also, but they're about the lightest form of Communism in practice.