A question on Electrics and Hybrids

[El Presidente]

It's a cigar deck question raised recently. We cover the big issues....politics, global warming, boobs. 

At what point do you think that  50% of new car sales will be either electric or hybrid? 

 

[Bijan]

As an owner of two electrics I'd like to think 2030, but I voted 2035. But whenever it is I think it'll be a sudden change.

My personal opinion is that as electrics go up, hybrids will go down, so that might slow the electric+hybrid numbers. For example there are people buying hybrid minivans because there are no electric minivans, but they would switch given the right option.

[El Presidente]

The argument on the deck was about what the critical threshold will be. The consensus was that once take-up reaches a certain number it will become a rout.  In other words it may take 10 years to reach 50% but it would reach 90 % in the following 2-3. 

50% seemed to be that magical number. 

we had a lot of drinks that day 

[Meklown]

9 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

big ....boobs

Those are the important stuff ... but my opinion on the unimportant matter such as electric cars; I think that they will become much more widespread very quickly (voted for 2025). If we're talking about passenger cars only, this chart actually surprised me - https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/passenger_cars_sales/. I didn't check/verify their data source, but if it is true, you really only need 1 country to change to have a significant change in the global %. Apparently China has committed to ban sales of all petrol and diesel cars by 2040, and as we know the governing style of the country ensures that the population follows instructions closely. 

[NSXCIGAR]

13 minutes ago, Meklown said:

Apparently China has committed to ban sales of all petrol and diesel cars by 2040

So if China can't even commit to it until 2040 and they can decree it with an iron fist there's no way the rest of the world will be there by then either.

California thinks they can do it but they can't even keep the lights on now. Imagine the requirements needed to power 8 million electric cars.

Unless you're majority nuclear there's no way to generate enough power to supply and keep prices from going through the roof. 

Aside from the fact the carbon footprint for electric vehicles--particularly hybrids--is effectively identical to gas powered after the battery production and disposal process is taken into account.

We might get majority electric around the time we figure out nuclear fusion.

[Meklown]

1 minute ago, NSXCIGAR said:

We might get majority electric around the time we figure out nuclear fusion.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a34224299/nuclear-fusion-compact-reactor-sparc-timeline/

[Bijan]

2 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Unless you're majority nuclear there's no way to generate enough power to supply and keep prices from going through the roof. 

Depends on the region. Quebec has electric heating, my friend there spends 4x the kwh heating his house than I do on two electric cars. They have hydro electricity.

Solar and wind could make a huge difference but that'll take a long time.

[Meklown]

4 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

So if China can't even commit to it until 2040 and they can decree it with an iron fist there's no way the rest of the world will be there by then either.

 

I think you misread me .. I meant to say they have committed and when they say they do, it will happen. So the change in electric cars should be imminent (from my perspective)

[NSXCIGAR]

15 minutes ago, Meklown said:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a34224299/nuclear-fusion-compact-reactor-sparc-timeline/

Well that's something. IMO, that's the only thing that's going to make electric cars feasible. 

12 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Depends on the region. Quebec has electric heating, my friend there spends 4x the kwh heating his house than I do on two electric cars. They have hydro electricity.

Solar and wind could make a huge difference but that'll take a long time.

Electric heating in the house? That's extremely inefficient. 

As for solar and wind it's not going to happen. Very few areas are windy and sunny enough to be viable. California and Germany are struggling mightily to make it work and CA is the sunniest civilized place on earth. 

10 minutes ago, Meklown said:

I think you misread me .. I meant to say they have committed and when they say they do, it will happen. So the change in electric cars should be imminent (from my perspective)

Yes, but the whole point is they are expecting to have to do it by decree because they know it's highly unlikely to occur by natural market process. 

Of course with fusion, that will kill fossil fuels quickly naturally. Power will be so clean and cheap no one would want oil. But until then, traditional green energy is much more expensive than fossil. It's even more expensive than people realize due to the enormous subsidies governments (i.e. you and me) are pouring in to it. If not for those, it wouldn't even be close.

[Bijan]

5 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Electric heating in the house? That's extremely inefficient. 

As for solar and wind it's not going to happen. Very few areas are windy and sunny enough to be viable. California and Germany are struggling mightily to make it work and CA is the sunniest civilized place on earth. 

Yes electric heating. They have more electricity than they know what to do with. There's only so far you can export it.

I could put 10kw solar on the roof of my house (not a big house). Almost did when there was a subsidy, but couldn't sell back due to grid overcapacity. And I'm in Canada. Would just about cover both my cars in winter, probably need a battery system. Not cheap but cost has been plummeting. Subsidies dropped from over $0.80 a kwh, to $0.27 or so before being cancelled. Electricity is $0.15 average here maybe.

Edit: My wife's commute has increased substantially, so wouldn't cover us anymore, did the math wrong 

[Zaxeiler]

In the US, Ford taking the F-150 will be the start of the major shift. Once people see “powerful” automobiles, like trucks, electric and reliable it’ll change perceptions. Plus, as with all technology, over time battery capacity will keep improving, so you won’t be limited to the ~300 miles today.

[Ryan]

They're still too expensive to buy. That's the main issue, though that's changing very quickly.

When a new electric car that can carry four adults and greater than 300 mile range can be bought for $25,000 and used models with low mileage are widely available for $10K - $15K. That'll be the end of consumer internal combustion engines. Other than those used for fun, show, hobbies etc. Much like horses are used now in most of the world. 

The used market is important and there aren't many electric vehicles in the cheaper end of that yet. That market needs 4 year-old, low mileage versions costing half the price of new models. They're not there yet.

Commercial trucks, farm vehicles, etc may take a while longer.

The main decision-maker for the vast majority of people when buying a car is price. Not environmentalism. After price, it's running cost, servicing/maintenance cost and reliability. Electric cars already have ICE cars beat on those three. Range anxiety is still an issue for electric cars but with "normal" models already getting 400+ miles and more and more charging points + faster charging, that issue is going away very quickly. I think 2025 in countries that have the infrastructure.

Some countries are already there. 60% of new cars sold in Norway last month (September 2020) were electric. Include hybrids and that's 89%.

 

 

 

[Kaptain Karl]

6 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

So if China can't even commit to it until 2040 and they can decree it with an iron fist there's no way the rest of the world will be there by then either.

California thinks they can do it but they can't even keep the lights on now. Imagine the requirements needed to power 8 million electric cars.

Unless you're majority nuclear there's no way to generate enough power to supply and keep prices from going through the roof. 

Ahh you nailed it! If we were actually serious about reducing emissions quickly and effectively we’d be building nuclear power plants like crazy. It’s the only way we can generate extreme amounts of clean, cheap energy. I’ll just say this...if they REALLY thought the ecosystem will collapse in 10 years they would not be worried about the low probability of radiation exposure (which is how hurtful to the environment in comparison to the world ending in a decade???)

 

[Bijan]

I don't understand this there's no way to generate that much electricity talk. I mean we have cars out there right now that are burning gas. You could burn that gas in power plants at about the same cost (probably best to go with natural gas, but just to make the argument as clear as possible). Even running on coal, EVs are lifetime lower on carbon emissions (takes several years to break even especially for the bigger battery ones).

Edit: And the capital costs for new nuclear plants are astronomical. We had a local one in the 1980s that was supposed to cost $3 billion, ended up costing $20 billion, probably responsible for 5% of our astronomical provincial debt. I think we're also about to spend $12.8 and $13 billion refurbishing two plants (and there are already cost overruns).

https://theconversation.com/why-ontario-must-rethink-its-nuclear-refurbishment-plans-127667

Maybe if we could build nuclear plants for what they cost in the 1950s/60s it would make sense.

First plant in the US:

"Eisenhower opened the Shippingport Atomic Power Station on May 26, 1958. The plant was built in 32 months at a cost of $72.5 million."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shippingport_Atomic_Power_Station

9x inflation since, so $652 million 2020 dollars. Would be interesting to compare capacity.

[Bri Fi]

I was promised boobs in the OP. Why have we discounted solar panel bras that plug into hybrids? Or some kind of wind powered boobie tassels? 

[mprach024]

Cost, Range and charging times.  That’s what keeps them from being more popular now.  But if you look at what’s happened to the manufacturers portfolios in last 5 years, I wonder if in 10 years what percentage of their portfolios will be electric models.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s over 50%.  Might not account for 50% of sales but maybe NEW car sales, probably.  I’d love to own one, but it’s not uncommon for me to drive more than 250 miles to meet a Client.  I have zero interest in sitting at a charging station for 20-60 min to get a charge if my destination doesn’t have chargers.  Watching “The Long Way Up”, makes you realize the nightmare scenarios you could find yourself in if you ever need to drive longer distances.  In 10 years those infrastructure issues should be far less concerning and I’ll be more likely to buy one.

[helix]

The majority of  EV's  will be  Hydrogen fuel cell powered not charged off the grid. 

[helix]

The existing fuel infrastructure will facilitate Hydrogen distribution and throws the benzene merchants a lifeline .  

[lovethehaze]

3 hours ago, Ryan said:

The main decision-maker for the vast majority of people when buying a car is price. Not environmentalism. After price, it's running cost, servicing/maintenance cost and reliability. Electric cars already have ICE cars beat on those three. Range anxiety is still an issue for electric cars but with "normal" models already getting 400+ miles and more and more charging points + faster charging, that issue is going away very quickly. I think 2025 in countries that have the infrastructure.

So i'll try to keep it short....I work and have worked in the car business for about 20 years so I know a little about this and I work on the service side. It's 90% about price I agree, where I disagree is the ICE cars are being beaten by the electric/hybrid cars. I work with higher end cars so not a Toyota, Nissan Ford etc.. but some of our lines do have electric/hybrid. I am in the 3rd largest market in the us and we see very few of these models, a few more than we once did but still  a very small amount in a city where lots of people own cars that don't even need them. So the not enough mileage per charge isn't a huge issue really, it's a myth if we are talking about the op's real question.The more major issues are the cost to install a real charger not these small ones that take forever to charge along with legality based on where people park cars in a major city i.e. not space they own, the fact they are not as fun to drive, the fact they made in a much cheaper way i.e. engine, door panels, wheels/tires, trim and on and on, and cost to repair... these cars are astronomical to repair...The tools and training needed to get techs who know how to repair these cars is not cheap. It is not a super safe thing to repair if someone doesn't know how to repair them and if they don't have the upfront money to buy the proper tools then this makes all customers continue to go to a dealer.. which makes repairs expensive, at some point the car is 2nd, 3rd, 4th owner and the dealer stops seeing the cars except for recalls b/c it's cheaper to go to a aftermarket shop. The cost in tools we have had to purchase to work on these cars is more than most small shops are worth...

The repairs per vin on ICE cars are down about 60% over the past 10 years. Most manufacturers have figured out how to build very reliable fun cars that don't break a lot anymore. There is always going to be an exception but in general the cost of repairs is not even close especially if you account the used car market where most cars are bought will have to take to a dealer to get repaired....this will kill someone buying a used one which leaves only the guy who can afford a new one and this isn't where most cars are bought by "real" people. Or take the guy who I see a lot, buys a real expensive car (2nd or 3rd hand) and brings for service.. after i tell him the real cost of repairs they try to take to someone who can fix cheaper or they sell it quick, that option to take it to someone who can fix it cheaper isn't there yet for these electric/hybrid cars. Maybe one day it will be then we can have this discussion but until that is real this isn't a real conversation honestly. If 2 cells go bad in one of our cars it 7g and there are 6 cells, and this is a warranty cost, so if someone had to pay it would be 10g... this isn't so uncommon.....so basically every-time an issue arises in a hybrid/electric car its a new engine or trans cost wise in most cars... how many people buy cars knowing this ? especially in the secondary market ? Without this secondary market as you pointed out very astutely there is no hope for this market to work or gain real traction.

The maintenance is cheaper for a true electric yes, for a hybrid no difference and add all that i already know will go bad...one would have to be literally trying to waste money to buy a hybrid. More money to repair, same maint, and less fun to drive... 0 for 3....

 

These are all my opinions clearly and what I see on a daily basis but only on a few specific car lines, there are obviously many car lines other than where I work so take it for what its  worth but in the market I live and work each and every day 50% of new car sales will NEVER happen, not even in your wildest imagination until the service side is figured out and even then i still doubt it.....

[Bijan]

14 minutes ago, lovethehaze said:

So i'll try to keep it short...

?

But seriously thanks for the detailed view from inside.

I think your views are shaped by your premium brands. Fun to drive is not exactly in entry level Toyota, Honda etc. Wheelhouse. They're easily beat by the Chevy bolt ev or any of the non premium brand EVs.

Yes BMW has SUVs with the acceleration of a corvette or challenger and have crappy electric hybrid offering. Meanwhile my Tesla model 3 is 0-60 in 3.7s and I don't have the performance model. So they can be fun to drive.

I have much more limited view. I have that one which I got in October 2018. 45k miles on it. My wife's is a used 2016 kia soul EV. 75k miles on it when I got it. It was run ragged as a taxi in Montreal and had battery replaced under warranty right before I got it for about 10k USD last year. Range is about 100 miles as it is a first generation entry level EV. No battery cooling so useless anywhere warm. Batteries failing left and right in the south, but they do all right here in Canada. 100k mile battery warranty so it must be costing kia a lot.

[Bijan]

33 minutes ago, helix said:

The majority of  EV's  will be  Hydrogen fuel cell powered not charged off the grid. 

Maybe but hydrogen is currently generated from fossil fuels, as it is way too expensive to do from electricity. And it's still more expensive than gas. The cars are more expensive than gas cars too. And the performance generally sucks.

[lovethehaze]

But seriously thanks for the detailed view from inside.
I think your views are shaped by your premium brands. Fun to drive is not exactly in entry level Toyota, Honda etc. Wheelhouse. They're easily beat by the Chevy bolt ev or any of the non premium brand EVs.
Yes BMW has SUVs with the acceleration of a corvette or challenger and have crappy electric hybrid offering. Meanwhile my Tesla model 3 is 0-60 in 3.7s and I don't have the performance model. So they can be fun to drive.
I have much more limited view. I have that one which I got in October 2018. 45k miles on it. My wife's is a used 2016 kia soul EV. 75k miles on it when I got it. It was run ragged as a taxi in Montreal and had battery replaced under warranty right before I got it for about 10k USD last year. Range is about 100 miles as it is a first generation entry level EV. No battery cooling so useless anywhere warm. Batteries failing left and right in the south, but they do all right here in Canada. 100k mile battery warranty so it must be costing kia a lot.

Exactly but the OP was 50% of new cars ... with the climate around the world and the fact people who buy these cars typically have money ... that limits the pool from the start. And the secondary market repairs at some point will become the person who owns the cars issue .... manufactures stop paying eventually. Trust me I know this 100%.

My poll question would be where will all these cars end up ? In parking lots like VW diesels ? Set a fire ? Or bought back by manufacturer’s?

It is so complex right now within the industry, some companies do make great and reliable ones but it’s a loooooong ways away. Especially with big oil dropping prices huge and so much crude everywhere we once thought wasn’t there. Hard to compete with an industry that actually makes money vs one the government pays for ....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bijan]

1 minute ago, lovethehaze said:

It is so complex right now within the industry, some companies do make great and reliable ones but it’s a loooooong ways away. Especially with big oil dropping prices huge and so much crude everywhere we once thought wasn’t there. Hard to compete with an industry that actually makes money vs one the government pays for ....

Yes I agree with a lot of this. This is why I said 2035 (2040 wasn't an option). If prices keep dropping then eventually they'll be as cheap or cheaper than gas cars. Granted that's a big if, but Tesla is dropping prices quite often, and Chevy is really discounting the Bolt. That'll have an impact on the new market. You're better placed to say what that does to the used market, but I assume 4-5 years later those cars will flood it. It's to be seen whether they'll be junkers or taken up by used buyers. My experience with used Kia Souls and Nissan Leafs, etc. suggests there is a healthy market. I've even seen third party battery upgrades for the old Leaf models popping up.

The used market is helped by the fact that there is limited supply going backwards so outdated cars keep re-selling well because there are no 4-5 year old non-outdated cars on the secondary market. To be specific there are no Tesla model 3s pre 2018. There are no Chevy bolts pre 2017. Pre 2015 there's basically just the Nissan Leaf.

The price of gas/oil is a big factor, and is driving two types of people to EVs, those that drive long to ridiculous commutes (not long distance road trips, but daily drives within the range of the EV) which then allows you to recoup the cost difference within the ownership period even with cheap gas, and those that drive very little (and can afford a cheap EV with small battery).

[lovethehaze]

15 minutes ago, Bijan said:

It's to be seen whether they'll be junkers or taken up by used buyers. My experience with used Kia Souls and Nissan Leafs, etc. suggests there is a healthy market. I've even seen third party battery upgrades for the old Leaf models popping up.

The used market is helped by the fact that there is limited supply going backwards so outdated cars keep re-selling well because there are no 4-5 year old non-outdated cars on the secondary market. To be specific there are no Tesla model 3s pre 2018. There are no Chevy bolts pre 2017. Pre 2015 there's basically just the Nissan Leaf

This is it..it's still very early in the process, if people buy them and can create aftermarket cheaper ways to repair them then your in business... if not go deep on recycling and real estate to store these cars ! Good thing is retail, land and commercial real estate is as cheap as ever with the riots and cv19 so maybe buy lots of land and charge back the manufacturer to store until the know what to do with them lol. Clearly you can see I am not a believer, but they make me more money b/c they always break and are expensive so either way I'm good, I have no skin in the game really. In the near future more will be revealed.....

[Bijan]

5 minutes ago, lovethehaze said:

Clearly you can see I am not a believer, but they make me more money b/c they always break and are expensive so either way I'm good, I have no skin in the game really. In the near future more will be revealed.....

For your sake I'm glad

Always worried that the increased reliability would put you guys out of business

That's actually a good thing for EV sales, as the main detraction it is assumed to selling EVs is that they won't have recurring maintenance to keep money coming in to the dealership. If you guys can make more money off EVs the sales people will be pushed to sell them.

As to the rest, the batteries can be used/recycled for energy storage, and the cars can be junked/cubed just as easily as regular cars.