Question on the E2's

[Tstew75]

3 hours ago, PuroDiario said:

Of course, should have alongside the previous post. Allow me to write a long post here - and tbh, I did not mean to quote your post directly, as I was not necessarily trying to respond to it (did by mistake). Just general contribution to the debate, So apologies.

If we discussed this analogous to business Key Performance Indicators (to make a management analogy):

A lagging indicator measures output, hence it is a backward looking explanation/assessment of performance and gives you an observable trend and factual yet not complete explanation for performance. However, it does not definitionally show high correlation with future performance and usually fails to work well as a predictive tool (regardless of field of study: Infra, health, cigars quality). These indicators exist only after the measurable event takes place and helps explain its nature and a range of possible effects.
 

On the other hand a leading indicator is a “reliable”, or very highly correlated with outcome, predictive measure; measures input. Hence a good tool for assessing performance (high correlation). These indicators exist before the measurable event (performance/quality in this case) exists or takes place.

For example if we looked at making an investment decision in consumer internet stocks, or we for example were looking to invest in Bond Roberts as venture capitalists would:

1) leading indicators of future performance are daily active users, web traffic, bounce rate, average time spent in the site, average revenue per user, open rates for email notifications on new boxes being auctioned

2) lagging indicators would be marketing $ per new seller/buyer that transacts (customer acquisition cost), repeat rates (churn of your existing sellers/buyers), Average Order Values or average $/cigar auctioned, total revenues, total auctioned volumes, brand recognition, etc

In the general economy:

1) leading indicators are things like jobless claims

2) lagging indicators are things like GDP or interest rates

And after all this long post:

when I look at Box Codes only after assessing the quality of the cigars in the bunch, is the Box Code able to provide an indication / explanation of quality (aha! It was El Laguito). But buying el laguito over a sizeable enough sample does not guarantee or highly correlates to outsized quality. 
 

To make an investment decision without opening boxes and trying cigars in the boxes you would be more likely to optimize your boxes quality looking at: average years rolling cigars per roller in the factory (assuming that correlates with who’s rolling what vitola), number of vitolas and marcas rolled in the factory (how focused are they in excellence in a limited number of products), precedence of leaf distributed to each factory, status of equipment (for example is draw testing equipment in the factory well maintained, etc), satisfaction levels of rollers in that factory, rejection rates for boxes in the quality control of that factory (assuming the process is being implemented efficiently), what codes are the tier 1 global distributors taking for the top countries (for example UK codes here can probably be taken as leading).

So my view is in general investing behind codes guarantees very close to nothing other than some emotional attachment to Cuban cigar mystique.

happy Sunday!

 

An extremely long winded way for you to say factory doesn't matter ?

While I appreciate your opinion, I have to say I whole-heartedly disagree.  But as always with cigars, to each their own...

Happy football day!

[El Presidente]

I have opened plenty of mastercases of both E laguito  Partagas E2 and Partagas (mother factory) E2. 

The Laguito E2 are far more consistent in terms of wrapper shade and wrapper quality mastercase to mastercase. They are also generally significantly lighter in shade.  

That doesn't make them better by any means. I prefer a rich Rosado on an E2 and you will find far more of those in a MSU than a MAR coded Partagas E2. 

 

 

[dobbs]

2 hours ago, Tstew75 said:

An extremely long winded way for you to say factory doesn't matter ?

 

you asked dude, it was an excellent explanation

-dobbs

[Tstew75]

14 minutes ago, dobbs said:

you asked dude, it was an excellent explanation

-dobbs

For sure, I was happy to hear the wonderful explanation!

[PuroDiario]

2 hours ago, Tstew75 said:

An extremely long winded way for you to say factory doesn't matter ?

While I appreciate your opinion, I have to say I whole-heartedly disagree.  But as always with cigars, to each their own...

Happy football day!

Indeed Long, trying to make sure the point was clear following your question. 

Perhaps we can design a trade for the next few years. let’s agree on few brands and vitolas, let’s agree in number of boxes a year and let’s agree to a premium over market value you are willing to pay to get your target codes (in advance of Rob publishing his list, which again is lagging not leading). I will commit to trade you your not cigar factory favorites for your cigar factory favorites at that premium, for all of those vitolas over the period of time we agree. We can discuss mechanics at an other time. 

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday! 

[Tstew75]

3 hours ago, PuroDiario said:

Indeed Long, trying to make sure the point was clear following your question. 

Perhaps we can design a trade for the next few years. let’s agree on few brands and vitolas, let’s agree in number of boxes a year and let’s agree to a premium over market value you are willing to pay to get your target codes (in advance of Rob publishing his list, which again is lagging not leading). I will commit to trade you your not cigar factory favorites for your cigar factory favorites at that premium, for all of those vitolas over the period of time we agree. We can discuss mechanics at an other time. 

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday! 

I think you're failing to consider some key points here. Habanos has a rich history of rolling certain cigars/brands at specific factories...some top-notch examples would be Cohiba at El Laguito, Partagas at Partagas, Hoyo at La Corona, Upmann at Upmann. Much of Cuba's tobacco identity is wrapped up in these historic factories.

As a consumer, I have the ability to choose which factory codes of certain cigars I want to obtain for my own collection. No, I don't have to pay any premium...my CoRos with a UAO code are the same price as CoRos with some no-name provincial factory code (with zero track record). My BRE Mag 46s are the same $$ as others.  Given this choice, why would anyone possibly fade home factory codes ? The ONLY example I can give is opting for El Laguito when given the choice, based on the fact they do get the best leaf grown in Cuba, they do employ some of the best rollers, etc. Maybe it is hype, but at the same price as others I'm (blind) choosing EL 100% of the time, and a cigars' home factory next. That's simply my choice.

I'm not definitively saying any of these mother factories roll better sticks than some other random factory (that would be virtually impossible), but my guess is they do (with certain brands/vitolas) & it's quite simply b/c of history, pride and people.

Buy provincial code sticks if that makes you feel better. Lagging/leading means nothing here.  Cigars are so damn cool b/c it's all about what YOU want to invest in, cherish & smoke.

 

[PuroDiario]

49 minutes ago, Tstew75 said:

I think you're failing to consider some key points here. Habanos has a rich history of rolling certain cigars/brands at specific factories...some top-notch examples would be Cohiba at El Laguito, Partagas at Partagas, Hoyo at La Corona, Upmann at Upmann. Much of Cuba's rich tobacco past revolves around these historic factories.

As a consumer, I have the ability to choose which factory codes of certain cigars I want to obtain for my own collection. No, I don't have to pay any premium...my CoRos with a UAO code are the same price as CoRos with some no-name provincial factory code (with zero track record). My BRE Mag 46s are the same $$ as others.  Given this choice, why would anyone possibly fade home factory codes ? The ONLY example I can give is opting for El Laguito when given the choice, based on the fact they do get the best leaf grown in Cuba, they do employ some of the best rollers, etc. Maybe it is hype, but at the same price as others I'm (blind) choosing EL 100% of the time, and a cigars' home factory next.

I'm not definitively saying any of these mother factories roll better sticks than some other random factory (that would be virtually impossible), but my guess is they do (with certain brands/vitolas) & it's quite simply b/c of history, pride and people.

Buy provincial code sticks if that makes you feel better. Lagging/leading means nothing here.  Cigars are so damn cool b/c it's all about what YOU want to invest in, cherish & smoke.

 

Seems I risk creating an argument where there was a healthy debate so leaving theory and bets aside for the next topic; I will tell you I understand your view. 

But yes, that’s my point precisely as you say: it’s a guess.

And to clarify, it does not make me feel better; what I am saying is that I am rationally indifferent in absence of any other information. 

In fact I quite enjoy opening a box from El Laguito, but has less to do with purchasing top quality than participating of the mystique and love for the history around Cuban Cigars and the whole narrative built around EL itself.

I hope we can agree that enjoying the above and rationally evaluating quality are not mutually exclusive.

Buenos humos to you. ?
 

[Tstew75]

13 minutes ago, PuroDiario said:

Seems I risk creating an argument where there was a healthy debate so leaving theory and bets aside for the next topic; I will tell you I understand your view. 

But yes, that’s my point precisely as you say: it’s a guess.

And to clarify, it does not make me feel better; what I am saying is that I am rationally indifferent in absence of any other information. 

In fact I quite enjoy opening a box from El Laguito, but has less to do with purchasing top quality than participating of the mystique and love for the history around Cuban Cigars and the whole narrative built around EL itself.

I hope we can agree that enjoying the above and rationally evaluating quality are not mutually exclusive.

Buenos humos to you. ?
 

Well said.

Many joyous things in life aren't quantifiable in a definitive way...sometimes we have to make up our minds & run with things we believe in...faith as it were. I have blind faith in EL, even if it's solely based on mystique & my love for the many great cigars I've had from there. 

You gotta love CCs...so much history, yet so many unknowns. It's a dragon I love to chase.