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Not sure who might play with the foreign exchange market. I've been looking into it more as another alternative investment.

Bitcoin has been treating me well lately though I believe we'll also see some more significant shifts in fiat currencies in the coming months.

As such, I ran an exercise to see which currency I'd put USD in now for some upside.

Ran a few ML/AI models against the past 5 year fluctuation in exchange rates along with GDP, CPI and unemployment rates across all countries and currencies. The model that tested best was the the eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees Regressor with Early Stopping model.  

It included ordinal encoding of categorical variables, missing values imputed, extract forecast distance and naive predictions as offset in the algorithm.

Yes, this is what I do for fun.

At any rate, and not terribly surprising given current economic factors among others, it seems the cost of cigars from our host have the potential for continuing to increase for the near term.

Won't bore you further with the specifics, unless interested (PM me). Here's where I'd park USD through mid-year at least while continuing to run the model quarterly to keep abreast of future moves.

image.png.7f983ed10d54d8572c8e57a117f42aa3.png

Yes. AUD

 

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Interesting I'm going from cad to usd due to stock investments. Feel like long term that might be favourable as that exchange rate seems to flip flop every so often. Looks like shorter term usd might drop vs cad though based on the above.

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6 hours ago, Habana Mike said:

Bitcoin has been treating me well lately though I believe we'll also see some more significant shifts in fiat currencies in the coming months

I couldnt agree more Mike. Bitcoin has been very, very good to me as well. Most of my buying was done in 17/18 and earlier and i also bought the virus dip in mar 20. Also hold xrp ripple. We see what is happening with xrp and the sec. Scary man. I am all about laissez-faire capitalism. A truly free market is the only way. If Ford Motor Company cant make it, let em drop and somebody new can come in and get it done. So as for money markets i stay away from them as i am not familiar enough. Is there money to be made in money markets? Absolutely, just not mine. Plenty bearish portent out there coupled with inflation that is doctored up. The whole reason i bought bitcoin was because there are only so many. Its very simple. Countries will keep printing the currency, deutsche bank is leveraged out over 40 times and lets not forget about Iceland 2008. All the charts point to an economic correction/collapse  starting with the tulip in the 1600's, Japanese Nikkei and so on. All the charts are the same before the fall. It is very interesting to study these historic charts. Its always the same pattern, every time

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I will say I never thought Doge would treat me as well as it did.   Especially for basically getting it free since I multimined it when I was mining Litecoin.   I wish I would have held my BTC for 3 more years but that's the way it goes.

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I had a chance to buy into Bitcoin at $13 a coin and was preparing to buy $1000 worth back in I believe 2013. Kid in my Entrepreneurship class kept coming in telling us we should go in and it was the topic of discussion as the Professor would give that guy negative crap about the press bitcoin was getting every morning. I folled it and was intrigued with it, was going to buy some since it was cheap and had just jumped from $8 a coin. The only reason I didn't was figuring out how to buy the thing, whos wallet to use that had solid security as some were getting hacked at the time. Looking at todays situation with COVID, Politics, Monetary policies etc. Inflation/Devaluation of currency is coming for all of us. I hear talk that they may try to outlaw crypto to protect government currencies. I think to myself, "They tried that back in 2012-2014 with Bitcoin". Crypto is here to stay, I would diversify my investment spread with several crypto instead of just one. You never know if you throw a little in that little sleeper and just keep holding. You could find that sleeper that shoots a hole in the roof like Bitcoin. Maybe if I would have stuck $1000 into Bitcoin back then I would be wishing now I put $10k, $50k, $100k and on and on. But I simply did not take the time to figure out the purchase and didn't get in. So in a sense I could have won the lottery had I bought a ticket to play so how could I expect to win anything? 

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Cordano ADA has been on fire in the past month or so, also litecoin.
Glad I got some BTC and ETH but wish I got more at the time.


 

23 hours ago, Bijan said:
Interesting I'm going from cad to usd due to stock investments. Feel like long term that might be favourable as that exchange rate seems to flip flop every so often. Looks like shorter term usd might drop vs cad though based on the above.


Buy US stock or ETF when our dollar is stronger and closer to par. With the exchange and cost to exchange for US stock it is likely best to buy cnd based ETF that holds US equities (such as VSV which holds VOO the s&P 500 tracker).
When our dollar is stronger buy up USD and buy US equities or VOO for example. Our dollar will always be weaker than the greenback so take advantage when it’s stronger.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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22 hours ago, Bijan said:

Interesting I'm going from cad to usd due to stock investments. Feel like long term that might be favourable as that exchange rate seems to flip flop every so often. Looks like shorter term usd might drop vs cad though based on the above.

Yes, based on the short term that seems likely.

Unfortunately there are quite a few unpredictable factors which could skew the numbers in weeks, if not days...

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On 2/20/2021 at 11:56 AM, Fosgate said:

I had a chance to buy into Bitcoin at $13 a coin and was preparing to buy $1000 worth back in I believe 2013. Kid in my Entrepreneurship class kept coming in telling us we should go in and it was the topic of discussion as the Professor would give that guy negative crap about the press bitcoin was getting every morning. I folled it and was intrigued with it, was going to buy some since it was cheap and had just jumped from $8 a coin. The only reason I didn't was figuring out how to buy the thing, whos wallet to use that had solid security as some were getting hacked at the time. Looking at todays situation with COVID, Politics, Monetary policies etc. Inflation/Devaluation of currency is coming for all of us. I hear talk that they may try to outlaw crypto to protect government currencies. I think to myself, "They tried that back in 2012-2014 with Bitcoin". Crypto is here to stay, I would diversify my investment spread with several crypto instead of just one. You never know if you throw a little in that little sleeper and just keep holding. You could find that sleeper that shoots a hole in the roof like Bitcoin. Maybe if I would have stuck $1000 into Bitcoin back then I would be wishing now I put $10k, $50k, $100k and on and on. But I simply did not take the time to figure out the purchase and didn't get in. So in a sense I could have won the lottery had I bought a ticket to play so how could I expect to win anything? 

Bitcoin hasnt even fully gained the traction/trust of the perspective market yet. I really see bitcoin going to 100k this year or early next year. I really like XRP as a sleeper right now. Obviously its a gamble with the SEC debacle, but either way the CEO said he would take XRP to another country. No risk/no reward. Very undervalued imo. Gotta have balls to make the coin

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I YOLO 10% of my portfolio on crypto and blue stocks, otherwise the rest is invested in an asset allocation index ETF. In Canada we have two fantastic options from iShares and Vanguard and it's difficult to beat a one fund solution that is perfectly diversified and rebalances itself for ultra low fees (0.2% MER in iShare's case). 

I feel like I don't understand options or forex well enough to gamble with them, even though crypto is even more volatile and risky. But I've been investing in crypto since 2013, so have grown accustomed to it. 

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  • 1 month later...

Loooool, I didn't even notice how AUD/USD got so strong. Okay, maybe I'll take a closer look at it...
I have been trading not so long ago. And while I'm just looking at stocks or with different currencies, I choose the most convenient ones for myself. Now I like to trade stocks ( for example, I recently took shares of various airlines as I think they are very promising and will rise in price in the summer.)
I read why do forex spreads wide net 10pm and realized that this is very important especially for cryptocurrency. I started trading such a crypt as TRON and noticed that stellar performs well in forex. I started trading them, and I hope they will rise in price in the near future.

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