Flor De Cano Elegidos

[Corylax18]

8 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I suppose I'm saying I agree with HSA channeling leaf into special production from a profit standpoint--my only point is that by bolstering a marca's regular line they can move more special production for that marca which is what they should be wanting. I think special production for Dip, SLR, SP and LFDC would all benefit from adding a model or two that people could become fans of. 

I don't necessarily agree with it, but I understand it, 100%. Also agree with your second sentence, but I think that's the big disconnect here. You'd be hard pressed to find many HSA Executives that really care about the standard lineup. Let me be more specific, you'd be hard pressed to find one that cares more about the standard lineup than they do their own self preservation. No one is going to stick their neck out and really try to make DIP, SLR or LFDC a major player. Its akin to a US Auto executive trying to breath life into the Chrysler brand a few years ago, it probably would have been the last thing said individual did for that car company. There is no Ford, or Chevy in Cuba, so if you lose your HSA job, that's it. Maybe you get lucky and get a job in tourism? My main point is, there is a lot more than just cigar sense and business acumen at play here. The disarray of the country is well represented in their cigars. 

8 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

The fact is that there are just some cigars that seem to always have a hiatus. QdO Coronas is one of them, and it's possible that the hiatus came right around the time of the 50 & 54. IMO, the Coronas are a completely different blend than the 50 & 54.

I agree, the fact that export units remain stable is a bit of a mystery that I need to consider. But all the leaf used in the LFDC ERs is coming from somewhere. Where did the leaf come from for the Edmundo Dantes and La Escepcion? That's not being cannibalized by another brand. Where is the leaf coming from for  the 450,000 sticks of RA Phoenicia 40? Has there been any shortage of any other RA? Even RAG has been readily available for a year. And the RA ERs keep coming. How can they inject 450K sticks while seemingly maintaining unit levels on every other RA? I can't recall ever seeing RASS out of stock at any vendor, ever. 

I agree the old QdO blend was different than the 50 and 54. I haven't smoked enough of the new Coronas to make a solid decision on the blend similarity there. If the blend is different, the majority of the tobacco could still be the same. Same wrapper, binder, volado, and Seco, but maybe an extra half leaf, or a higher priming of Ligero in the new models. Or it could just be a switch to a higher priming of Seco. I'm not a master blender, far from it, but the best blenders turn 2 and 2 into 5. There is an art to it, the variety of flavors that can be coaxed out of what should be relatively uniform leaf (inputs are highly controlled) is astounding. 

The leaf for the PHONYnicia 40 is all coming from Hector Prieto's farm, Obviously. 🤣 Hector himself was completely unaware of this when I mentioned it to him in late 2019 and he flatly denied it. @Ryan and I debated a couple years ago if it was even physically possible to roll 450,000 cigars with tobacco from such a small farm. It would take a few years at minimum to get that much tobacco together from that farm, then a couple more years to appropriately age it for an RE, then the year or so it would take to roll, package and distribute that many cigars. Maybe they've been skimming Hector's tobacco for the last 6-7 years without his knowledge. But if you believe that, I'll reference your bridge post in the Cuban vaccine efficacy thread. 😄 Just like "all the 30ths where rolled at EL" then they come out with 3 different box codes and try to convince us they where all rolled at EL, then trucked to different factories for packaging. HAHAHAHA. The tobacco for the 40th will come from all over the place, whatever they can get their hands on. It will be rolled all over the place, wherever they can get it done. They'll be just like any RP cigar, some will be outstanding, some will be dog rockets, and most will fall in between. You'll get some of each variety in every box. The marketing is what sets these "special" cigars apart from the pack, nothing more.

Hector has been told by HSA that most of his wrapper goes to Cohiba, and that his filler and binder is used in Cohiba, Trinidad, and QdO. None of those match my perception of the RA Flavor profile, at all. I dont see how you even get close to a RAS or RAG flavor profile with his tobacco. HSA is full of s#!t, up to their eyebrows. Just because a release is RA doesnt mean it contains tobacco that would have gone into an RP RA, or that it will even taste like an RP RA. Most "Marca DNA" lives in consumers heads, not the cigars. Countless blind tasting's over years have proven this definitively. 

My guess for the Dantes and Escepcion lines is that Tobacco was pulled from all over the portfolio to blend something intentionally different than was available in the regular line. I don't know that for a fact, but I agree, the handful of each that I smoked where different to any RP cigars I've smoked. Wrapper that may have gone onto a Monte, Binder and Seco from RA, Volado from any other marca. They didn't plant new strains, wait for them to mature, harvest, process, then age them especially for those cigars. That tobacco existed and went into something else the years before and after they where used for those two releases. Unfortunately it was spread across the whole range and diluted with lower quality tobacco. 

[NSXCIGAR]

7 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

You'd be hard pressed to find many HSA Executives that really care about the standard lineup. Let me be more specific, you'd be hard pressed to find one that cares more about the standard lineup than they do their own self preservation. No one is going to stick their neck out and really try to make DIP, SLR or LFDC a major player.

I'm not suggesting they make those brands major players--just put a model in that people buy. Selling special production is harder when nobody even knows what the marca tastes like.

They seem to have no problem adding models to HU and Trini and PL and Punch have just expanded with very similar models to the Elegidos. PL just went from one to two--why not Dip, SLR and SP? 

7 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

I agree the old QdO blend was different than the 50 and 54. I haven't smoked enough of the new Coronas to make a solid decision on the blend similarity there. If the blend is different, the majority of the tobacco could still be the same. Same wrapper, binder, volado, and Seco, but maybe an extra half leaf, or a higher priming of Ligero in the new models. Or it could just be a switch to a higher priming of Seco. I'm not a master blender, far from it, but the best blenders turn 2 and 2 into 5. There is an art to it, the variety of flavors that can be coaxed out of what should be relatively uniform leaf (inputs are highly controlled) is astounding. 

When I say different blend, I think they taste very different. I would argue they share remarkably little between them. The last Coronas I had from 19 tasted like they always have for 20 years. The 50 & 54 are very unique IMO. I think they could pass for a different brand. They have enough in common, but they certainly aren't scaled-up Coronas.

Regardless, how does a marca go from one low-production model to three with generous production on two? Where did that leaf come from? And how are export units stable? They keep adding cigars and less and less are being cut, yet export units remain stable? It's very odd.

7 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

My guess for the Dantes and Escepcion lines is that Tobacco was pulled from all over the portfolio to blend something intentionally different than was available in the regular line.

I don't know. That leaf was very unique and distinct. And I agree, marca DNA is whatever HSA wants it to be. But the fact remains the leaf comes from somewhere. Juggling leaf just doesn't explain it and the export units remaining stable also makes no sense. We know for a fact that total ER production has tripled since 2010 in absolute numbers. Take the 2018 class. 19 releases at 60-100K sticks. That's about 1.5 million sticks. Extra sticks. 

They've added 3 lines in the last 6 years: Party Maduro, Monte 1935 and RyJ LO. These are premium lines. Where did this premium leaf come from? Again, the fact that export units remain stable is baffling to me.

[Bijan]

44 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Juggling leaf just doesn't explain it and the export units remaining stable also makes no sense.

Couldn't it be as simple as they scale back regular production a bit. I mean if it's 90 million sticks total a single digit percentage cut would be a lot of ER/ELs.

[Corylax18]

18 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Where did this premium leaf come from?

The marketing department on the 4th floor of this building:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Miramar+Trade+Center/@23.1078302,-82.4413619,261m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m8!1m2!2m1!1shabanos+sa!3m4!1s0x88cd76d2e552d731:0x5b80b0407d9a07cf!8m2!3d23.1082379!4d-82.4407122

That's HSA headquarters. 

23 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Again, the fact that export units remain stable is baffling to me.

I think its really one major factor. Cuba seems to have lost the ability to Grow and Process wrapper leaf to a high enough level, consistently. Wrapper leaf is also 3-5 times more expensive than filler leaf. Even if HSA is only paying the farmers 10 cents on the dollar, its still 3-5 times more cents per dollar. 

Its a lot easier to process filler than it is wrapper leaf (much bigger margin for error, no concern for aesthetics) but they still pump out cigars with under/improperly fermented filler tobacco. The LE program was invented out of necessity, but it worked too. LE wrappers were originally (and still often appear to be) of a much lower grade than the wrappers found on many RP cigars. Leaf From Semi Vuelta or other areas. Thick, veiny, rough, and over fermented to an almost maduro color. Overwhelming maduro/chocolate flavor to help mask the cheapest possible filler they can use. The original releases where $4-$5 dollar cigars and they sat for years. For some reason(marketing) people eventually bit, hard. I'll readily admit, I was fooled early in my foray into Cubans, but I learned quickly. 

Anecdotal evidence, my own conversations/experience and the shift we've seen in the HSA lineup all support it. Almost every single new addition in the last few years has been 50rg or above, almost every cut 50rg or below. 

I know a lot of people blame American tastes but the Cubans are more than happy to accommodate. It makes their lives easier too.  

With wrappers being the limiting factor, they've tried two things.

1. Introduce us to lower quality, over processed wrapper leaf. This has obviously been a huge success as guys still line up to buy these things at even higher prices than regular cigars. 

2. Find a way to spread out the limited wrapper leaves across the maximum amount of filler leaf they can. The trend towards bigger RGs has also been a rousing success. 50, 55, 60. The price has continued to climb with the RG, I think E.P. Carillo already trademarked "THE INCH" so 65rg is the next stop. Maybe $500 a stick? They have to cost more than the skinny little 60RG 50 Aniversario. 

Where is the motivation to change up the playbook? Revenue is up and trending even further up on flat production volumes and product quality levels. Add to that the fact that the distributors take the real financial risk on the RE program and HSA is sitting in a tub of butter.

I think it helps to ignore the "Marcas." There is no President of Trinidad or Cohiba. Beyond EL (Which now rolls everything) there arent even really mother factories anymore. There aren't meetings between brand heads, debating the next release, or who gets tobacco from what farm. Its just executives, some cigar smokers, some not, making decisions based on Profit and Loss.

If HSA had their way, I think we would be able to choose from a Montesco and a Geniales in a limited number of remaining "marcas", new bands for each "marca" and generic, unbranded boxes in two sizes. No supply chain complexity, lots of cheap filler per each expensive wrapper leaf. Let the regional distributors take the risk on anything else and pocket a tidy profit for their efforts. 

Its been working great and it will continue to, until it doesn't anymore. We'll see what happens when the world financial markets normalize and anything even borderline "luxury" isn't selling for 10 times what it was a few years ago. HSA has gotten lucky, but they've also done a great job positioning themselves to take advantage of shifting demographics. 

HSA could (theoretically) do any of the things you've suggested, I would love it if they did a lot of them. But they don't want to, they don't need to. They've already figured out how to keep the bosses happy. 

[NSXCIGAR]

39 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Couldn't it be as simple as they scale back regular production a bit. I mean if it's 90 million sticks total a single digit percentage cut would be a lot of ER/ELs.

I don't know where they're scaling it back. If they sell everything they make, where's the shortage? RASS is never unavailable, yet it never seems to pile up. 450K sticks of Phoenicio 40 either cuts into regular production or it doesn't. We should see either shortages or increases in export units, yet we see neither. It doesn't matter if the leaf is coming from the RA lineup or not--it's coming from somewhere. 

6 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

Where is the motivation to change up the playbook? Revenue is up and trending even further up on flat production volumes and product quality levels. Add to that the fact that the distributors take the real financial risk on the RE program and HSA is sitting in a tub of butter.

I think it helps to ignore the "Marcas." There is no President of Trinidad or Cohiba. Beyond EL (Which now rolls everything) there arent even really mother factories anymore. There aren't meetings between brand heads, debating the next release, or who gets tobacco from what farm. Its just executives, some cigar smokers, some not, making decisions based on Profit and Loss.

HSA's revenue was stagnant for 18 and 19 and likely 20 although COVID makes it difficult to compare. That's not a good sign. Export units stable, special productions and prices ever increasing yet revenue can't keep up with inflation the last 3 years. 

There doesn't need to be a president of each marca. They're essentially different flavors of the same drink made in different factories owned by the same company. That's not the issue here. But my point is, they made the LFDC ERs for a reason. And they didn't sell. Yes, I know HSA sold them all but the distributors can't move them. So they won't order more and that affects supply chain. Does HSA really sell everything they make? It's HSA's job to manage and balance sales of each flavor of product. 

In addition there is ultimately leaf dedicated for LFDC. It's clearly premium leaf that isn't going into any other premium. What do they do with it if no distributor wants LFDC ERs anymore which is very possible? I just don't believe that you can push and pull very high quality leaf with a very specific profile in and out of the other 26 marcas at a whim without any kind of reduction in units. 

Why even introduce the Elegidos? What's the point? It is a cigar that serves no purpose and no one is going to buy at worldwide prices of $5-6 each. No one knows the brand or what it tastes like. They can make great cigars like the Magicos but this is apparently a yard 'gar even though I'm sure they could have made it good if they wanted to despite the short filler. They just cranked out 100K ER Robustos that will take 5 years to sell. What distributor wants that? It might take a very long time to get another LFDC ER, and HSA will be even more hesitant to release anything hand made in the regular line.

I just think they're going about it backwards. You're seeing the same thing with Dip, RG and SP. The El Ambajador, Nortenos and Ammunition are hanging around. The SP Escuderos and Valientes were awful sellers. RG 88 is still available at sub-$200 prices and the North Star can't move. Might this be because nobody really knows much about these marcas because there aren't any models in them? 

[Bijan]

3 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I don't know where they're scaling it back. If they sell everything they make, where's the shortage? RASS is never unavailable, yet it never seems to pile up. 450K sticks of Phoenicio 40 either cuts into regular production or it doesn't. We should see either shortages or increases in export units, yet we see neither. It doesn't matter if the leaf is coming from the RA lineup or not--it's coming from somewhere. 

Winnie's were always somewhat seasonal but becoming unobtanium. Monte especial same. No Monte A. Mdo 4 gone for 2 years now back somewhat. BRC were AWOL for a few seconds that should be something with years of stock. Even upmann cheapies were out of stock for a while. Siglo V AWOL too. It would be hard to tell if random RP dipped in supply by 5% given many prices are up by 10-15% and supply and demand could very well easily even out.

[NSXCIGAR]

22 hours ago, Bijan said:

Winnie's were always somewhat seasonal but becoming unobtanium. Monte especial same. No Monte A. Mdo 4 gone for 2 years now back somewhat. BRC were AWOL for a few seconds that should be something with years of stock. Even upmann cheapies were out of stock for a while. Siglo V AWOL too. It would be hard to tell if random RP dipped in supply by 5% given many prices are up by 10-15% and supply and demand could very well easily even out.

SW has always been seasonal. Recently though they seem to pop up for a week every two months or so. Monte A , MdO4 and Monte Especiales have always been seasonal and A very low production. 

And other than the MdO4, we're talking about global brands with limited special production. Look at Trini. The line has expanded from 4 models to 8 in 3 years! The 3 newest have been smashing successes. As I look, Reyes, Coloniales and Vigia are all readily available. Fundys seem to be scarce lately but do we really think poaching from Fundys could supply all those new models? 

Then we see brands with almost no special production that seem to hit supply dips. VR comes to mind. I see Famosos and Unicos go out of stock all the time for a month or two (or more) but that leaf isn't being poached for anything. SLR has very modest special production and Regios are in short supply all the time. They just cut the Non Plus and there's hardly and special production but SP Belis have been very hard to find all year. 

MdO4 is an odd one. Clearly, they have enough leaf to roll them (since it takes about 2 leaves) and they go berserk with LGC special production. I honestly think they mismanage this cigar. It is not a profitable one so I'm sure they don't care. PLMC also seem to have disappeared for about 6 mos and just popped up again a few weeks ago, but I'm sure PLMC sells even less than MdO4 and is even less profitable but is always pretty much available. I'm sure they could crank out a few hundred more boxes and bridge any gaps. 

As far as the recent BRC/PSD4 shortage I think this had more to do with shipping constraints and/or timing. If they ran out of leaf to roll them I doubt it would have only been a week or so without them. 

[Bijan]

3 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

As I look, Reyes, Coloniales and Vigia are all readily available.

At $300 a box for coloniales some places. You got to figure at Siglo II prices demand would dip.

Edit: I'm just saying with prices at current levels vs 5 years ago a 5% 10% production decrease could be buried.

[NSXCIGAR]

Just now, Bijan said:

At $300 a box for coloniales some places. You got to figure at Siglo II prices demand would dip.

Vendors have always played with Coloniales and Fundy prices. Reyes and Vigia still standard. Coloniales are easily found at $250 and less easily at $225.

[Bijan]

2 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Vendors have always played with Coloniales and Fundy prices. Reyes and Vigia still standard. Coloniales are easily found at $250 and less easily at $225.

Yeah my point is many people are cutting back on stuff due to prices. If ERs/ELs are low numbers vs RP and new RP is higher end it wouldn't take much cuts to maintain supply.

[NSXCIGAR]

20 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Yeah my point is many people are cutting back on stuff due to prices. If ERs/ELs are low numbers vs RP and new RP is higher end it wouldn't take much cuts to maintain supply.

Not exactly sure what you mean...you mean buyers are cutting back due to prices? 

I don't think new RP is "higher end"--there really isn't much new RP anyway. Maybe two models a year on average? My point has always been they have the leaf. The only thing that puzzles me is how export units remain stable. An entire marca (Trini) essentially doubles production and export units remain stable? They clearly aren't poaching all the leaf for the ML, Esmeralda and Topes from the Reyes, Coloniales and Vigia. This must be a new supply of leaf. 

The original point is that if they get an order for 60K LFDC ERs why wouldn't they make it? I don't think the Elegidos helps bolster the brand in a way that makes it more likely a distributor will request a LFDC ER. The track record on them is very poor at this point. SP, RG and Dip not far behind. Why any distributor would want one of these brands for an ER is a mystery at this point. 

I'm only trying to point out that HSA created a great cigar with the Magicos. They should be trying to figure out a way to continue to produce that cigar or cigars like it, RP or otherwise. Obviously, SP is more profitable for them. The introduction of the Elegidos does nothing to further that aim and in fact hinders it IMO. RP additions are so few and far between there should be some thought put in to them. Clearly, little was. 

[Bijan]

1 minute ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Not exactly sure what you mean...you mean buyers are cutting back due to prices? 

Yes definitely the case here with old timers it seems and things like Cohiba especially.

All the new upmanns are higher and higher end. Connie A, then B and 2 on top. They can sell less mag 46 and Connie 1 and be fine and let prices drive demand down on bread and butter vitolas.

Again with Trinidad wrapper is probably the limit as @Corylax18 said so really they want to cannibalize fundies.

[NSXCIGAR]

30 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Again with Trinidad wrapper is probably the limit as @Corylax18 said so really they want to cannibalize fundies.

Fundys couldn't make up 10% of what the new 3 require. 

And while I'm sure wrapper is a bottleneck in many cases wrapper being a bottleneck everywhere and always in perpetuity makes no sense. There would be an ever-growing surplus of filler that would never and could never be rolled. Why even plant leaf that based on wrapper yield expectations can't be rolled? 

If there was a true wrapper shortage you would expect to see a much stronger focus on special production with almost no increase in RP. In fact one would expect to see significant RP cutbacks and that hasn't really appeared. 

[Bijan]

1 hour ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Fundys couldn't make up 10% of what the new 3 require. 

And while I'm sure wrapper is a bottleneck in many cases wrapper being a bottleneck everywhere and always in perpetuity makes no sense. There would be an ever-growing surplus of filler that would never and could never be rolled. Why even plant leaf that based on wrapper yield expectations can't be rolled? 

If there was a true wrapper shortage you would expect to see a much stronger focus on special production with almost no increase in RP. In fact one would expect to see significant RP cutbacks and that hasn't really appeared. 

I can't figure out the numbers but I could definitely see shifts in RP volumes. Could Fundies + Reyes + Coloniales decreases make up some of the new vitolas? I think so. Maybe not 100% but to a fair degree.

Again on wrapper it's not the be all and end all but I can't think Siglo V is that hated or loved a vitola to be in short supply while all other Siglo cigars are pretty readily available. Same with Partagas 898s. And the price on those is higher to make up for it, but maybe not high enough.

[NSXCIGAR]

3 minutes ago, Bijan said:

I can't figure out the numbers but I could definitely see shifts in RP volumes. Could Fundies + Reyes + Coloniales decreases make up some of the new vitolas? I think so. Maybe not 100% but to a fair degree.

Again on wrapper it's not the be all and end all but I can't think Siglo V is that hated a vitola to be in short supply while all other Siglo cigars are pretty readily available. Same with Partagas 898s. And the price on those is higher to make up for it, but maybe not high enough.

I haven't seen any real reductions. Fundys, yes, those have been MIA for a while. Coloniales are only slightly less available. Reyes and Vigia always have been. What other cigars are you thinking of? I'm seeing everything that's not seasonal in stock and most of the seasonal stuff has popped up in the last 6 mos. MdO4 just appeared, SW a month ago, RAS, Cuaba Distnguidos, Punch DC, RAG, Boli Lib a few months ago, SLR Regios the other day. Siglo VI and Esplendidos have been all over the place. Lanceros are always spotty--been a few months on those. I will say the only non-seasonal cigar I can think of that seems to be AWOL is SP Beli which is odd because what the hell else are they doing with that leaf?

As far as Siglo V, I can believe they are avoiding that vitola intentionally. Large Siglo is definitely an area where wrapper rationing is very plausible. IV and V are much harder to find than the others and ostensibly the least popular. 

[Bijan]

@NSXCIGAR my main disagreement is your use of availability as a proxy for production levels. Prices for everything except maybe plpc are up enough to affect sales, at least to the tune of single or low double digit decreases in old RP. Maybe not enough to account for all the new vitolas in Trinidad but probably the new ER production we were talking about previously.

As to the new Trinidad vitolas I don't know enough about blends to know where you can pull leaf/wrapper from other than Trinidad so can't comment too much on that. But looking at the daily smoke thread those new Trinidad's are pretty popular. So maybe the strongest evidence of your position. I just disagree that this or that vitola not being sold out is proof it is not being produced in smaller numbers.

[NSXCIGAR]

36 minutes ago, Bijan said:

I just disagree that this or that vitola not being sold out is proof it is not being produced in smaller numbers.

I don't see general price increases outside of the typical 2-4% per year for non-Cohiba. Even if there were, as has been discussed in other threads, CCs are probably still priced too low in reality and demand exceeds supply. Siglo VI has risen 30-40% in two years, and they sell like hotcakes. Demand for CCs has typically been fairly price inelastic. 3 years ago, PSD4 was $225. Now they're $255-260. I think in the last month prices have bumped up slightly due this temporary shortage, but BRC and RASS are all about the same price and have increased about the same. 

A also don't think it's unreasonable to use stock surveys as an indicator. In fact, I'd argue that along with export units those are the only two metrics appropriate to assess production amounts. Technically, barring some act of nature like COVID, the only reason a cigar should be out of production is because of a leaf shortage on that cigar. (PSD4/BRC shortage wasn't a production issue but a shipping issue.) Clearly, there is no reason there should be a wrapper shortage for SW, for example. If they can roll a Mag 50, they have wrapper for SW. So in that case, is it the filler? Maybe so. And if that cigar has a filler shortage, how many others? Perhaps there is just as much of a filler shortage as there is a wrapper shortage. 

[Bijan]

The one stock indicator I believe in is average box date. I get 2014-2015-2016 stock on Fonseca orders routinely. I get 2015-2016-2017 on entreactos especially the two dress box ones. Most popular things are much closer. Some things down to 3 months. I'd use that as a proxy for production vs sales.

On the other things people just buy something else as prices adjust. Vendors won't have 2 box deals or sales on stuff they're running low on and it will shift demand.

 

1 hour ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Perhaps there is just as much of a filler shortage as there is a wrapper shortage. 

Acutely, filler shortages should be worse in knocking out a cigar out of production. I am quite ignorant of blends but I have to assume you could shift wrapper around more easily than certain types of filler which give very specific flavours.

I just think wrapper is the limiting factor in general on the number of premium cigars they can make, not necessarily which specific ones or how many of which specific ones.

[NSXCIGAR]

59 minutes ago, Bijan said:

The one stock indicator I believe in is average box date.

Absolutely, I think this is valuable information. But you have to have stock in order to have an average age. 

54 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Acutely, filler shortages should be worse in knocking out a cigar out of production. I am quite ignorant of blends but I have to assume you could shift wrapper around more easily than certain types of filler which give very specific flavours.

It has to be the case for some cigars. Like I said, there's no reason whatsoever there should be a wrapper shortage for SW. A filler shortage makes more sense for that cigar. Obviously there's no wrapper shortage for MdO4. Monte A could definitely be a wrapper issue, but obviously not Party 898 or SLR Regios or Serie A

I think it's case by case, and I really do think filler is more limiting than it appears. They could never have a perpetual wrapper deficit because, as I pointed out, filler would continue to pile up in perpetuity.

I just have a hard time reconciling how there can be ever-increasing models with no significant shortages across the board and modest price increases yet units produced remains flat. 

[Bijan]

I really think if you look at stock and prices they've moved in opposite directions. They used to have more cigars sitting on shelves, that Rob had to discount and sell as 2 box deals, etc. Now there's much fewer and if you look at 24:24 there's a pretty big premium for 5 year old RP. MDO4 was one of those cigars that wouldn't sell. Vendors used to have aged, discontinued and vintage sticks. Now that's pretty rare. I mean obviously HSA and the distributors have the numbers we don't, but it's got to be logical that they push until it no longer makes sense. I have to assume you don't actually want stuff out of stock if you can help it.

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, Bijan said:

I really think if you look at stock and prices they've moved in opposite directions. They used to have more cigars sitting on shelves, that Rob had to discount and sell as 2 box deals, etc. Now there's much fewer and if you look at 24:24 there's a pretty big premium for 5 year old RP. MDO4 was one of those cigars that wouldn't sell. Vendors used to have aged, discontinued and vintage sticks. Now that's pretty rare. I mean obviously HSA and the distributors have the numbers we don't, but it's got to be logical that they push until it no longer makes sense. I have to assume you don't actually want stuff out of stock if you can help it.

I think there might be several factors at play. Obviously, the last 18 months has been wacky, so we have to take that out of the equation. Also, there had been some really poor crops between 2013-2016 and that might have caught up with them from 16-18. But from what I recall, stock was very high everywhere in 18-19 and possibly would have continued to be so through 20 if not for the pandemic. 

You never really saw 3+ year old stock for the popular items even in let's say 2018-2019. Sure, RGPC, BPC, RyJ Belvederes--cigars like that always pile up. You might even see some Siglo I or II with a few years, But BBF, RASS, Epicure, PSD4--the staples--usually move so quickly that a few years is rare. I recall digging through the entire walk-in at Hotel Palco in Havana and the oldest box of anything I could find was two boxes of Monte 1 10s from 2014, and that was in Nov 17. 

You are correct about MdO4--when the regulars are satiated it is quite the slow seller. Same with PLMC. But when it goes dry the regulars start jonesing. It does seem to have had an unusually long hiatus (Q4 17 I believe to Q2 21) but they'e been cranking out the LGC special production and I can imagine the MdO4 is the last cigar they want to make. I can also see them sacrificing PLMC for the something like the Galanes. That is something I would have much less of an issue with from a business standpoint. I think the Galanes is a much smarter product if you have to have only one.  

Either way, we have the fact that export units have remained constant for many years, yet new models and special production have been cranking with--if we take your view as fact--some marginal cuts in regular production numbers. I guess they might be cutting back the enormous amounts of JLP, Quintero and Troya. After all, JLP has had massive price increases in the last 2-3 years. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the most price inelastic segment as those who smoke budget cigars are less likely to or capable of spending more. A reduction of 1 million sticks is nothing for JLP and yet might represent total production of all three of the new Trinidads to date, for example. Obviously totally different leaf used, but I'm just trying to explain this stable export unit figure. 

[Bijan]

I'm looking a bit further back maybe 2000-2010 period. Lots of discontinuations but by 2010 from what I have heard and read 10 year old boxes laying around here and there in shops.

The reduction in the number of vitolas probably gives them flexibility in terms of filler/blends as you don't have to have those specific flavours matched to those specific cigars.

Like your example of punch and what was it 4 corona gordas? I mean they kept what was probably the least regarded one from the bunch and that's a lot of premium leaf to go to more premium cigars.

Also single run cigars gives them more flexibility too. Roll whatever blend you can come up with since you'll never have to recreate it. Unless they pull another talisman rug pull 😂

[NSXCIGAR]

Finally had one. Flavor was pretty decent. Definitely tasted like a LFDC. Floral & fruity. 

Construction however was quite lousy. The short filler really hurts it. Wrappers are thick and burn poorly. The short filler makes the cigar go squishy. Constant relighting. I'm not sure short filler works too well for 50 RG.

Flavor wise it's better than Quintero or JLP by a country mile. If the price is around $4 these are a great yard 'gar or golf cigar.