Report on the shortage of Cuban Cigars

[Ryan]

Some interesting reading here, with comments from quite a few distributors and representatives.

https://www.cigars-connect.com/report-shortage-cuban-cigars/

 

[LordAnubis]

It will be interesting to see the impact on this. I’ve always really found cigar availability comes and goes. I don’t recall a time where my usual sources had everything in the habanos catalogue. The situation is probably different where one can go to a B&M. 
 

I can’t see much being impacted though. Record sales will be followed by dwindling sales due to buyers having full humidors and empty wallets, and starting travelling again  or recovering from financial hardship faced and in that time the shelves will likely be empty while production catches up. I think overall it will average out over 3 years. 
 

thanks for sharing !

[smbauerllc]

Good read.
Thanks for sharing.

I had only really noticed fairly recently, like the last couple of months, that my regular 3 vendors were out of stock on the majority of what they carry, especially boxes.

Now that I'm finally getting set up to buy and store boxes instead of just singles, I have been looking at many more vendors and everyone seems to be out of stock on a majority of what they carry.

Kinda sucks now that I'm actually looking to buy boxes. Very hard to find much except with UK vendors who seem to have more in stock, but their prices are always outrageous compared to anyone else, which is probably why they have more stock.

Guess I'll just have to be patient and also seek out private sales on another forum that has lots of them all the time.

Fortunately I don't see any price gouging there, everyone is looking for the average price or a bit less

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[GaryK 54]

38 minutes ago, smbauerllc said:

Good read.
Thanks for sharing.

I had only really noticed fairly recently, like the last couple of months, that my regular 3 vendors were out of stock on the majority of what they carry, especially boxes.

Now that I'm finally getting set up to buy and store boxes instead of just singles, I have been looking at many more vendors and everyone seems to be out of stock on a majority of what they carry.

Kinda sucks now that I'm actually looking to buy boxes. Very hard to find much except with UK vendors who seem to have more in stock, but their prices are always outrageous compared to anyone else, which is probably why they have more stock.

Guess I'll just have to be patient and also seek out private sales on another forum that has lots of them all the time.

Fortunately I don't see any price gouging there, everyone is looking for the average price or a bit less

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I haven’t found any better or more complete source than what our host provides. Outside AUS, prices are good too. 

I know 24:24 has been a bit of a ‘feeding frenzy’ the last few months, but patience and persistence pays off. To be honest, the selection on this site (with some highly sought after marcas and vitolas being the exception) continues to be good. 

Glad to hear you’ve sorted your storage situation and are now able to buy boxes and get your aging program started! 

[Bijan]

51 minutes ago, smbauerllc said:

I had only really noticed fairly recently, like the last couple of months, that my regular 3 vendors were out of stock on the majority of what they carry, especially boxes.

Now that I'm finally getting set up to buy and store boxes instead of just singles, I have been looking at many more vendors and everyone seems to be out of stock on a majority of what they carry.

Not sure which vendors you are using or what boxes you are trying to pick up. But between the biggest online vendors I'd say most things are in stock, except the ones that just aren't being produced in numbers like Siglo V, Sir Winston, MdO4, etc.

For example I think most have Coloniales in stock. Or Monte 4. Or Monte 2.

[Corylax18]

Same Story as the Lumber, Steel, Ammunition/Firearms, Wine, and Computer industries, you name it. 

"Yeah, we were doing a pretty bad job with production before the pandemic, but its actually the Pandemic's fault. We couldn't keep people working, we couldn't get raw materials, we couldn't ship our products." Blah Blah Blah. Plenty of companies have survived/thrived during this pandemic without ripping off their clients/customers in the process.

Has HSA been able to provide their full catalogue to Vendors at any point during their existence? Even once? Have they been able to deliver a single years worth of RE's/LE's in the actual year they were supposed to be released? 

Meanwhile, Sales are up 27%, 200%, 375%. Poor 5ta, Poor Intel, Poor Cabela's. Right? Not poor consumer, the one's who are getting ripped off. Poor, huge, faceless, multinationals? Fewer units sold, at grossly elevated prices, by fewer employees? Sounds like an Accounting Department's wet dream. 

[smbauerllc]

Not sure which vendors you are using or what boxes you are trying to pick up. But between the biggest online vendors I'd say most things are in stock, except the ones that just aren't being produced in numbers like Siglo V, Sir Winston, MdO4, etc.
For example I think most have Coloniales in stock. Or Monte 4. Or Monte 2.

The 3 I use most frequently, 2 in Switzerland and 1 in Belgium, have been out of stock on a lot for a while now.

The other vendors I have noticed it with are simply those that show up in a Google search for something specific I'm looking for, so i very well may not be seeing the vendors you are referring to.

I have checked a couple of the most common/popular vendors, and some did have good stock, but also have much higher prices than many others.

I should also say that it's the very popular cigars I'm looking for that are out of stock on singles and boxes, but as i mentioned, have just started looking at boxes instead of just singles.

Unfortunately I can't name the vendors I'm seeing it with due to the forum rules.

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[Bijan]

@smbauerllc I'll PM you about other vendors.

There are 3 I know in Switzerland and at least two (the two that sell singles) have been spotty on supply for a long time (either in terms of not having boxes in stock or in the case of one of them having huge sales on some things and high prices on other things). The one that doesn't do singles also has pretty spotty supply too.

[Cairo]

3 hours ago, Ryan said:

Some interesting reading here,

Thanks for posting this--it confirms what many of us have suspected for a while...

 

[El Hoze]

I do not buy nearly as many cigars as I used to several years ago. But in those days I would consistently mention the “threat of future cigar shortages” to my wife every time a new box would arrive and I needed more and more room for storage. At least I can finally tell her I wasn’t quite as crazy as she thought.

[JohnnyO]

This problem has been developing long before COVID excuses became the norm. Say 2007-ish. Asian players visiting the LCDH's in Havana with lists, offering rewards of $200 per master case (50 boxes). Only high end stuff, they weren't looking for Jose Piedra. Fast Forward to December 2020. Every LCDH I entered had 30-50 Asians, all on the phone/tablet/laptop and none of them were smoking. Just working deals. All of the LCDH's had the same problem. Some Siglo I/II, mostly petacas but nothing larger. Trinidad was all small cigars as well and in 12 count boxes. In the other marcas there was plenty. The prices had gone up on everything, almost to a true world price. Most Torpedoes/Belicosos were in the sub-$300 range. At that time you could pay in Cuban pesos so there was an advantage. Then they changed it to dollars, now its Euros. I don't think it will straighten out in 3 years time as Anubis says. Asian buyers are multiplying and that is where the stock is going. The same problem is with the rum. They only buy high end stuff and pallets of it. At least from the Havana point of view. John  

[SpecialK]

5 hours ago, Bijan said:

@smbauerllc I'll PM you about other vendors.

There are 3 I know in Switzerland and at least two (the two that sell singles) have been spotty on supply for a long time (either in terms of not having boxes in stock or in the case of one of them having huge sales on some things and high prices on other things). The one that doesn't do singles also has pretty spotty supply too.

the one that doesn't do singles has been spotty for quite a while.... So glad I found this place

[Tollickd]

Yes I can confirm my local distributor orders x amount and gets half of that when it’s delivered and always late


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[El Presidente]

Lowest levels to stock in the Habanos warehouse (export)  in memory and what is there is low rent stuff. Few top end premium and naturally it doesn't sit. 

Factories are working on 30% staff regularly. Should a roller become infected, if asymptomatic,  he/she and those surrounding are sent to home isolation. it is affecting all stages of the production line from sorting house to packaging to rolling to  warehouse. 

We are a year away at least from some level of normality. 

[LLC]

As others have said this is happening in so many categories of consumer goods. Just today I read restaurant’s that have just been allowed to serve people inside as well as patios are having a hard time getting supplies. One example is a restaurant ordering 200 cases of beer and getting 15. A hardware store ordered 80 gallons of paint and received 10. And on and on it goes. 

[Hammer Smokin']

I hate to say it, but it serves the suppliers right. 

they have decided to make their business models paper thin, with very little room for change/error. 

now they are missing the boat, huge. 

everyone knocks down those who are succeeding in this climate. the manufacturers of SO many products have completed missed the boat. I'll remember this in a few years when things normalize and our local distributors cry the blues about "globalization" and how unfair it is. 

 

[SCgarman]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

Lowest levels to stock in the Habanos warehouse (export)  in memory and what is there is low rent stuff. Few top end premium and naturally it doesn't sit. 

Factories are working on 30% staff regularly. Should a roller become infected, if asymptomatic,  he/she and those surrounding are sent to home isolation. it is affecting all stages of the production line from sorting house to packaging to rolling to  warehouse. 

We are a year away at least from some level of normality. 

Until the next pandemic. Mark my words, this certainly won't be the last in our (I'm 55) lifetime unfortunately. 

[Rhinoww]

With the tighter supply and increased costs, it is interesting to see if the grey market resellers keep stock on hand. So far, at least a few of the more reputable ones  seem to keep some decent stock on hand. It will be interesting to see how long that can last if 2021 production is really down to 50% after being down in 2020. 
 

[Bijan]

9 minutes ago, Rhinoww said:

With the tighter supply and increased costs, it is interesting to see if the grey market resellers keep stock on hand. So far, at least a few of the more reputable ones  seem to keep some decent stock on hand. It will be interesting to see how long that can last if 2021 production is really down to 50% after being down in 2020. 
 

Prices have slipped up and two that had bulk/multi box discounts have gotten rid of them. If they can raise prices I think they can likely manage supply vs demand.

[Thirds]

“We even sometimes run out of José L. Piedras or Quinteros!” - marketing director, Cubacigar 

The quote makes me think even he was surprised by this.  Ha.  Demand is strong.  

[Homer]

"We even sometimes run out of José L. Piedras or Quinteros! "

Things are really serious😃

[El Presidente]

Flip side is that it is a great time for quality NC operators to expand their European and Asian footprint, 

Unfortunately, supply is an issue for them as well. 

[SCgarman]

11 hours ago, Rhinoww said:

With the tighter supply and increased costs, it is interesting to see if the grey market resellers keep stock on hand. So far, at least a few of the more reputable ones  seem to keep some decent stock on hand. It will be interesting to see how long that can last if 2021 production is really down to 50% after being down in 2020. 
 

I can tell you in the Rolex watch world it is the grey market resellers that have all the watch stock. Just try walking into an official Rolex jeweler and buying a stainless steel Rolex Daytona, Submariner or GMT at msrp. The display cases are empty. Want to pay double msrp and have a watch delivered by FedEx next day, the grey reseller is your best friend. 

[Cairo]

13 hours ago, Bijan said:

Prices have slipped up and two that had bulk/multi box discounts have gotten rid of them.

This is a good thing--I was buying too many boxes (particularly petite coronas) because the temptation was impossible to resist.  😉

[SCgarman]

15 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Flip side is that it is a great time for quality NC operators to expand their European and Asian footprint, 

Unfortunately, supply is an issue for them as well. 

Your Padron, Fuente and Rock Patel outfits have tons of tobacco available. I have not seen supply issues for the big guys like these. YMMV