Report on the shortage of Cuban Cigars

[El Presidente]

9 hours ago, therealrsr said:

@El PresidenteFrom what I have read the production of leaf has increased in both '19-'20 and '20-'21 seasons.  Any thoughts on how HSA will deal with the glut of raw material given the severe limits on cigar production?  Or is this a Tabacuba problem?  Getting my hands on some actual Cuban grown filler leaf for rolling my own has me dreaming.  (Yeah, keep dreaming)

HSA has nothing to do with production. 

Excess glut of tobacco is not a problem 

[El Presidente]

Just now, NYgarman said:

Your Padron, Fuente and Rock Patel outfits have tons of tobacco available. I have not seen supply issues for the big guys like these. YMMV

Those who predominantly grow their own tobacco are fine. 

Those who buy in / JV production are finding that certain tobacco that they have relied upon/used is in short supply. 

[Huckleberry]

On 7/6/2021 at 10:15 AM, El Hoze said:

I do not buy nearly as many cigars as I used to several years ago. But in those days I would consistently mention the “threat of future cigar shortages” to my wife every time a new box would arrive and I needed more and more room for storage. At least I can finally tell her I wasn’t quite as crazy as she thought.

Remind her to be thankful she is married to such a visionary   We will support you in that fact, or follow your lead...

[El Presidente]

I saw Mitch post an update overnight.  Things are tough when a distributor is out of Monte 4. 

 

https://www.cgarsltd.co.uk/cigarblog/cigar-auction-cigar-shortage-6981/

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

Things are tough when a distributor is out of Monte 4. 

I would think this is an extremely temporary situation like the PSD4 issue a month or so ago. Seems like they may traditionally ship large amounts of one cigar at one time. If there's a month delay for whatever reason this causes serious problems on a high-movement cigar like Monte 4, PSD4 etc. Or it could be that they roll these in waves only shipping when they're finished with all of them. Might take them 3 months to roll all the Monte 4 for that period and they don't ship out until they're all finished. 

My point is that this should be categorized more of a delay in restocking rather than a shortage. But it sounds like they need to reevaluate their production and shipping processes...

[Meesterjojo]

11 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I would think this is an extremely temporary situation like the PSD4 issue a month or so ago. Seems like they may traditionally ship large amounts of one cigar at one time. If there's a month delay for whatever reason this causes serious problems on a high-movement cigar like Monte 4, PSD4 etc. Or it could be that they roll these in waves only shipping when they're finished with all of them. Might take them 3 months to roll all the Monte 4 for that period and they don't ship out until they're all finished. 

My point is that this should be categorized more of a delay in restocking rather than a shortage. But it sounds like they need to reevaluate their production and shipping processes...

I'd like to believe I'm responsible for the D4 shortage. Half of my CC stock are D4s all purchased this year. I know it's not true. I went in too deep with them.

The sad thing is that they're just not as good as that first box. 

 

[El Presidente]

48 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I would think this is an extremely temporary situation like the PSD4 issue a month or so ago. Seems like they may traditionally ship large amounts of one cigar at one time. If there's a month delay for whatever reason this causes serious problems on a high-movement cigar like Monte 4, PSD4 etc. Or it could be that they roll these in waves only shipping when they're finished with all of them. Might take them 3 months to roll all the Monte 4 for that period and they don't ship out until they're all finished. 

My point is that this should be categorized more of a delay in restocking rather than a shortage. But it sounds like they need to reevaluate their production and shipping processes...

You are wrong on this one unfortunately. 

It is a serious shortage of cigars. I wish it wasn't so. 

The number of cigars in the HSA warehouse is at the lowest level it has ever been. 

[SCgarman]

29 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You are wrong on this one unfortunately. 

It is a serious shortage of cigars. I wish it wasn't so. 

The number of cigars in the HSA warehouse is at the lowest level it has ever been. 

Did I read your post correctly the other day that production has come to a halt? Is this COVID or the social unrest in Cuba? Is this a forecast for even higher prices?

[El Presidente]

 

1 hour ago, NYgarman said:

Did I read your post correctly the other day that production has come to a halt? Is this COVID or the social unrest in Cuba? Is this a forecast for even higher prices?

Some factories have closed for periods (Covid related). All are under reduced production.  Understandably, a family member of a worker contracts and they isolate. Factory worker becomes ill and they isolate those he/she works with. 

Most have not been in operation over the past 10 days. 

As for prices, HSA price increases come out in May of each year. 

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

You are wrong on this one unfortunately. 

It is a serious shortage of cigars. I wish it wasn't so.

I hadn't taken recent events into account but how much is covid vs. current turmoil? I would think the bulk of the covid complications would have been late last year into early this year unless the new restrictions are stricter than at any point prior. 

[El Presidente]

Just now, NSXCIGAR said:

I hadn't taken recent events into account but how much is covid vs. current turmoil? I would think the bulk of the covid complications would have been late last year into early this year unless the new restrictions are stricter than at any point prior. 

99% Covid. The situation has been building for a year but since February it has gone downhill at an astonishing rate. 

 

[Tstew75]

This is all so much worse than I imagined. Thanks for the article links guys.

[Cigar Surgeon]

On 7/8/2021 at 5:21 AM, NYgarman said:

Your Padron, Fuente and Rock Patel outfits have tons of tobacco available. I have not seen supply issues for the big guys like these. YMMV

Both tobacco and cigar inventory are extremely challenged in the NC world. Anyone sitting on tons of leaf inventory is doing well, but if you're trying to find any new NC releases from 2021; best of luck. I think the general expectation is what would normally ship in August will be shipping after November.

[El Presidente]

7 hours ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

Both tobacco and cigar inventory are extremely challenged in the NC world. Anyone sitting on tons of leaf inventory is doing well, but if you're trying to find any new NC releases from 2021; best of luck. I think the general expectation is what would normally ship in August will be shipping after November.

I have heard that the price of tobacco in the NC world has increased significantly over the past 12 months. 

Suppliers are hesitant to meet legacy client arrangements at old prices when there are plenty of buyers at the new price levels.

[Cigar Surgeon]

29 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I have heard that the price of tobacco in the NC world has increased significantly over the past 12 months. 

Suppliers are hesitant to meet legacy client arrangements at old prices when there are plenty of buyers at the new price levels.

I've heard the same. I'm expecting a wave of sudden wrapper changes on some blends and the lack of availability of popular lines soon as well.

Edit: Catching up with everything I missed from the PCA I'm hearing a lot of booths had limited or no samples to hand out. Many other booths couldn't display product claiming it was caught up in customs or wasn't available. 

I can't wait to be smoking tons of new reviews in the snow in November. 🥶

[Tstew75]

Similar article here...says the shortage is expected to be for about 3 years:

https://ministryofcigars.com/habanos-looking-at-massive-shortages/

[LizardGizmo]

On 7/7/2021 at 3:21 PM, NYgarman said:

Your Padron, Fuente and Rock Patel outfits have tons of tobacco available. I have not seen supply issues for the big guys like these. YMMV

I was at Padron yesterday and spent about 15 minutes with Jorge. He said they are back to fairly normal production and have product coming in daily. Doesn't expect any sort of supply issue, though their distribution humidor is not as full as usual. Seems like a lot of just-in-time delivery for them as they have very high demand at the moment.

[SCgarman]

On 7/20/2021 at 9:35 PM, El Presidente said:

 

Some factories have closed for periods (Covid related). All are under reduced production.  Understandably, a family member of a worker contracts and they isolate. Factory worker becomes ill and they isolate those he/she works with. 

Most have not been in operation over the past 10 days. 

As for prices, HSA price increases come out in May of each year. 

Yes, HSA may increase prices in May of each year, but retailers such as yourself and some in Geneva certainly are free to set whatever prices they want. Simple supply vs. demand. Less supply and high demand= price increases. Virtually everything here in the US is sky high now, gasoline, new homes, new cars, food, you name it!

[Monterey]

3 hours ago, NYgarman said:

Yes, HSA may increase prices in May of each year, but retailers such as yourself and some in Geneva certainly are free to set whatever prices they want. Simple supply vs. demand. Less supply and high demand= price increases. Virtually everything here in the US is sky high now, gasoline, new homes, new cars, food, you name it!

Well, cheers to the good and honest retailers.  It's why we are here

[El Presidente]

4 hours ago, NYgarman said:

Yes, HSA may increase prices in May of each year, but retailers such as yourself and some in Geneva certainly are free to set whatever prices they want. Simple supply vs. demand. Less supply and high demand= price increases. Virtually everything here in the US is sky high now, gasoline, new homes, new cars, food, you name it!

I think you will see (are seeing) a lot less discounting across the world of cigars.  The volume of stock simply isn't there to do so.  The demand for stock available is insatiable.  The supply damand law isn't really in effect. Prices are going north but demand isn't tapering. 

[JohnnyO]

On 7/22/2021 at 10:54 AM, Tstew75 said:

Similar article here...says the shortage is expected to be for about 3 years:

https://ministryofcigars.com/habanos-looking-at-massive-shortages/

This article is similar to all the other articles that have the same cigar-shortage-speak excuses. We cant get cigars on a plane. Now they have to use a boat if you can take that risk. 2019 was this, 2020 was that, tropical storms in 2021. The majority of the complaining is coming from Europe. Asian distributors are very-very quiet. The $hift in distribution is obvious. It's not rocket science. John

[helix]

The regime wants more from Asia than cigar customers.

[Tstew75]

1 hour ago, JohnnyO said:

This article is similar to all the other articles that have the same cigar-shortage-speak excuses. We cant get cigars on a plane. Now they have to use a boat if you can take that risk. 2019 was this, 2020 was that, tropical storms in 2021. The majority of the complaining is coming from Europe. Asian distributors are very-very quiet. The $hift in distribution is obvious. It's not rocket science. John

So you tend to downplay the inefficiencies that Covid has caused in Cuban factories over the past 18mo or so. I don't think it's anything like shortages of the recent past, as the bodies just haven't been in the chairs to roll & process.

Every industry has made channel shifts while production has been the crux.

[Nino]

5 hours ago, Tstew75 said:

So you tend to downplay the inefficiencies that Covid has caused in Cuban factories over the past 18mo or so. I don't think it's anything like shortages of the recent past, as the bodies just haven't been in the chairs to roll & process.

I tend to agree with his opinion.

So far all of my Cuban roller friends have been very busy at work, have not heard of any factory closing due to Covid. Some partial lock downs but from what I've heard all so far quite manageable. No major disruptions in the production process that I am aware of.

[Tstew75]

3 hours ago, Nino said:

I tend to agree with his opinion.

So far all of my Cuban roller friends have been very busy at work, have not heard of any factory closing due to Covid. Some partial lock downs but from what I've heard all so far quite manageable. No major disruptions in the production process that I am aware of.

Several sources claim La Corona was completely closed for 2+ months + LG running half capacity. A couple of obvious examples that are unique to this pandemic period.  Hard to truly verify though, as you're saying there was no closures or slow-downs.

Quote

'...And finally, there is the pandemic situation in Cuba. It is true that fewer factories closed in Cuba than in other cigar-producing countries, but the big La Corona factory in Havana has been closed for two months for health reasons.'

Either way there's a tendency for us all to want to downplay the Covid effect, but its' shock waves will be felt for many months to come, believe that.