Best wishes to the people of Cuba-


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A short article from FT gets right to the point. "In Cuba's case, rigid central planning and stifling one-party communism are the main culprits". The article also warns against foreign intervention. I have not heard one Cuban, living in Cuba, calling for foreign intervention, other than food and medicine. Only the opposite.   

https://www.ft.com/content/ecd11c0d-4853-44e5-a017-d276b1ac8e75

There hasn't been much mention yet of those detained in Cuba since the 11th. Some reports are saying 200, but nobody knows an accurate number. I had a long conversation with a friend in Havana on Sunday night. She knows of a couple who went out on the 11th and "got caught up in it", as she put it. She thinks they are facing 2 years in prison. A doctor she has heard of, in the front line of one of the protests, is expecting 25 years.

Lots of revolutions, successful or not, peaceful and otherwise, have come as the result of mistreatment/imprisonment of participants of previous failed ones. 

No current protests, at least not of the scale of last week, but a large security presence on the streets. Lots of tension. And the core issues haven't gone away.

The medicines that are most requested are the simple ones for most of us, painkilers and anti-inflammatories. Aspirin (high dose and low dose), Ibuprofen, paracetemol, any of these with codeine, maybe diclofenac, naxopren.

She was saying prices on the black market have gone crazy. 800 cup ($12-$15 depending) for 10 ibuprofen pills.

I have a flight booked in November, Covid pending. I can bring at least one extra 30 kg bag, which I'll be filling with these. No import taxes or awkward customs moments now. All of us who go regularly will know someone there who can get them to people who need them. It's not much, but a relatively simple thing to do for anyone planning on going.

 

 

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Just got back from an SOSCubaNYC March. I had the bullhorn for a few minutes to tell my story and why I'm there to support. So many amazing Cubans marching as one. We walked from Times Square to Union

Message from Hamlet         

Yep it does - replace blockade with embargo and you get the drift ... 🙂 The Blockade does not prohibit fishermen in Cuba from fishing, the dictatorship does; 🇨🇺-The blockade does not confis

3 hours ago, Bijan said:

I am pretty sure I installed a satellite internet link a decade and a half or two decades ago maybe not the same speed but definitely no $15,000 equipment involved.

I'm guessing it was a user terminal. That's very possible. The margin for error is higher on user terminals, by design. 

When you're trying to connect $100,000+ of ground equipment to a Billion+ dollar Satellite, $15k to get it 100% right is a drop in the bucket. Its definitely not required to get your Dish Network up and running though. 

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31 minutes ago, Ryan said:

I have a flight booked in November, Covid pending. I can bring at least one extra 30 kg bag, which I'll be filling with these. No import taxes or awkward customs moments now. All of us who go regularly will know someone there who can get them to people who need them. It's not much, but a relatively simple thing to do for anyone planning on going.

 

 

I have a couple different trips booked for early November. (different airlines in case of cancellation) 

I wasnt 100% confident before the protests that the trip would be doable and now I'm 50/50. 

I hope both the Travel situation around the world and the situation in Cuba improve drastically by then, but things are shaky right now. 

Depending on airline, I can Bring 100 or 120 pounds of Checked luggage and a Carry On. Its not much in the grand scheme of things, but its better than nothing. 

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2 hours ago, Ryan said:

The medicines that are most requested are the simple ones for most of us, painkilers and anti-inflammatories. Aspirin (high dose and low dose), Ibuprofen, paracetemol, any of these with codeine, maybe diclofenac, naxopren.

I have a flight booked in November, Covid pending. I can bring at least one extra 30 kg bag, which I'll be filling with these. No import taxes or awkward customs moments now. All of us who go regularly will know someone there who can get them to people who need them. It's not much, but a relatively simple thing to do for anyone planning on going.

 

Not very optimistic about November travel and not sure it will be feasible, but I'll see ...

In case it's doable I will raid the pharmacy ... have already 2 packages of 10 lbs each in MIA waiting to go to HAV ...

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52 minutes ago, Nino said:

Not very optimistic about November travel and not sure it will be feasible, but I'll see ...

In case it's doable I will raid the pharmacy ... have already 2 packages of 10 lbs each in MIA waiting to go to HAV ...

Just last Sunday, Ireland put Cuba on the "Mandatory Hotel Quarantine" list, some of the rest of the E.U. will possibly follow, due to the rise in cases in Cuba recently. This means, even though I am vaccinated, I would have to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks after returning. While I could use the rest, I don't think that would fly with my wife and kids. Of course that might, hopefully,  have changed by November, but who knows where we'll be by then.

Most people I know in Havana are getting their third jab around now or will be soon. Soon we'll know if they work. On one hand, it'll make travel easier to Cuba, great for Cubans and getting currency into the local economy. On the other hand, successful vaccination campaigns have been good for political careers in other countries (UK), so if that happens in Cuba it will take at least some of the steam out of a protest movement. Poorly managed vaccination programmes (eg. if the Cuban vaccines aren't effective) have had the opposite effect on approval of governments (Ireland, Aus).

So a successful vaccine program in Cuba will probably make it less likely for change to happen anytime soon. But it would be a terrible thing to wish that a vaccine doesn't work. Better to try to solve immediate problems first.

 

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3 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

I have a couple different trips booked for early November. (different airlines in case of cancellation) 

I wasnt 100% confident before the protests that the trip would be doable and now I'm 50/50. 

I hope both the Travel situation around the world and the situation in Cuba improve drastically by then, but things are shaky right now. 

Depending on airline, I can Bring 100 or 120 pounds of Checked luggage and a Carry On. Its not much in the grand scheme of things, but its better than nothing. 

American flies on Mondays from Miami around 10:30-ish, Jet-Blue flies out of Ft Lauderdale in the 2:00 time slot on Fridays since January. If you are not on that flight(s) you dont have any guarantees. Also the food, medicine, hygiene items must be in a separate bag not mixed in with shoes, clothes. John

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10 minutes ago, JohnnyO said:

American flies on Mondays from Miami around 10:30-ish, Jet-Blue flies out of Ft Lauderdale in the 2:00 time slot on Fridays since January. If you are not on that flight(s) you dont have any guarantees. Also the food, medicine, hygiene items must be in a separate bag not mixed in with shoes, clothes. John

I'm actually on a mixture of United and Southwest flights on Saturdays and Sundays. Neither airline is actually flying on the days/slots I booked today. I understand I have no Guarantees on either  They will have to start adding frequencies, just one part of why its looking less likely by the day. 

Thanks for the tip on the separate bags. I can/will do that if I make the trip. 

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16 minutes ago, helix said:

Not to be negative or unhopeful but, how the hell could Cuba have developed an effective Vaccine ?  

I’m sure it’s more communist propaganda than a legit vaccine. 

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3 hours ago, Kaptain Karl said:

I’m sure it’s more communist propaganda than a legit vaccine. 

It’s feasible even for a country like Cuba. They chose a vector that’s been around for decades so it’s hardly cutting edge. 

Whether it’s legit…well, we’ll find out soon enough. 

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1 hour ago, JohnnyO said:

Here's the formula: NaCl+H2O

It cures everything. John

Just gargle with it and all is good!

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7 hours ago, helix said:

Not to be negative or unhopeful but, how the hell could Cuba have developed an effective Vaccine ?  

It's pretty simple.  They spend all their treasure on development of vaccine instead of food production or other basic necessities that we just take for granted. 

A tropical island with so much land that imports most of its food. WTF! 

But as far as the efficacy of the Cuban vaccine goes, I was on a Signal video call with a friend's mom a few days ago.   She had just had her 3rd dose and had a low grade fever, aches, runny nose, pains and chills 24 hours after and was fine the following day.  Similar symptoms I had after the 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine.  The difference is she didn't have access to any NSAIDs, decongestants, etc.  Even the pharmacies in the hotels were empty. 

 

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From Havana:

The Cuban government is making a campaign of hatred and discrediting all the people who participated in the demonstrations, in addition to making a witch hunt for all the patrons who post or publish any video or photos ... yesterday they began to release the prisoners the reason why they were delayed in the release depends on how quickly the signs on the body of the beatings and torture disappear ... 😭😭😭 yesterday I saw a video of a protester who explained that every day they were inspected and he alone they released him when he no longer had traces of violence on his body .... !!!

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18 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

So what are the next steps here?

How do we picture the Cuba situation 12 months from now?

The U.S. Admin announced more, but fortunately much more directed Sanctions:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-imposes-new-cuba-sanctions-over-human-rights-abuses-n1274765

In 12 months time, I dont see drastic improvement unfortunately. I think the same people will still be in power and I dont see things really improving until they're gone. 

I did hear that the Government announced more "changes", but they all sound similar to the first set of changes. They wont do anyone much good until travel to the island grow's dramatically. Who knows when that will be. 

They announced:

  • A "Garage Sale" Essentially the government wont be permitting and taxing every single private sale, Think houses and cars, appliances, big ticket items. Another boon for the mules, if they can get airline tickets. 
  • More Credit Facilities for house hold items are being offered by the government. I guess maybe an attempt to "stimulate" the economy?
  • The "legalization of means of Transport built from Parts" Im not as clear on what this one means, but it looks like it legalizes the majority of the cars you see on the road. Not production vehicles, but the classics and even non classics that are stitched together with what ever is available. 

Its great to see the Government Reacting, but none of the announced changes will make much of a difference right now. 

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31 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

The U.S. Admin announced more, but fortunately much more directed Sanctions:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-imposes-new-cuba-sanctions-over-human-rights-abuses-n1274765

In 12 months time, I dont see drastic improvement unfortunately. I think the same people will still be in power and I dont see things really improving until they're gone. 

I did hear that the Government announced more "changes", but they all sound similar to the first set of changes. They wont do anyone much good until travel to the island grow's dramatically. Who knows when that will be. 

They announced:

  • A "Garage Sale" Essentially the government wont be permitting and taxing every single private sale, Think houses and cars, appliances, big ticket items. Another boon for the mules, if they can get airline tickets. 
  • More Credit Facilities for house hold items are being offered by the government. I guess maybe an attempt to "stimulate" the economy?
  • The "legalization of means of Transport built from Parts" Im not as clear on what this one means, but it looks like it legalizes the majority of the cars you see on the road. Not production vehicles, but the classics and even non classics that are stitched together with what ever is available. 

Its great to see the Government Reacting, but none of the announced changes will make much of a difference right now. 

Heard same on my daily Havana update:

Good morning my dear friend .... Today we woke up with new improvements and measures taken by the government that let us breathe a little ... "It is not the solution because the solution is in the hands of the problem" but they were things that should have been done long time....
One of them was that they allowed the "Garage Sale". I explain that before, if you wanted to sell anything of yours, you had to ask the government for a permit and pay high taxes, that's why people did it illegally ...
The other measure is that we can already buy on credit ... although only household appliances and household items ...
And the last measure is the legalization of means of transport made and created from parts ... I explain that there are many motorcycles, and cars and hybrids between motorcycles and cars that many Cubans have made here and circulated illegally ...
Anyway, good measures but not the solution ...🤷🏻‍♂️

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9 hours ago, Corylax18 said:
  • The "legalization of means of Transport built from Parts" Im not as clear on what this one means, but it looks like it legalizes the majority of the cars you see on the road. Not production vehicles, but the classics and even non classics that are stitched together with what ever is available. 

This could also mean privately imported electric e-scooters. 200,000, so I read, in Cuba now. I have seen the numbers of them growing on the streets in the last couple of years. There are official sellers, but many have been imported in parts and sold privately in a legal "grey area". They're getting popular in Havana with businesses starting home deliveries during the pandemic. I see closed nightclubs offering home deliveries of cocktail kits. Obviously not for all Cubans.

Good article this week from Jon Lee Anderson, who has lived in Cuba. Written before the announced sanctions on Alvaro Lopez.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/is-cubas-communist-party-finally-losing-its-hold-on-the-country

Where it's going. I don't think there is the mood in Cuba for a violent revolution. If the government can take the pressure off, unrest might dissipate. Some of that pressure will be released with immediate access to more food, medicines. Tourism will help and for that, the Cuban vaccines will have to work. Remittances would help too. What happens to the people rounded up in last week's protest could have a part to play in what happens in the near future too.

Certainly Diaz-Canal didn't handle it well. He's trying to backtrack somewhat now. But Cubans have seen how weak he is compared to Fidel. 

I hear a flotilla has left Miami at 7 am this morning. Whatever a "flotilla" means in this case, the rumours in Cuba are that it will have a "military escort". The Cuban Office of Foreign affairs has "condemned this agressive bahaviour". Rumours of another protest today at midday in Havana.

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Ryan said:

Good article this week from Jon Lee Anderson, who has lived in Cuba. Written before the announced sanctions on Alvaro Lopez.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/is-cubas-communist-party-finally-losing-its-hold-on-the-country

Where it's going. I don't think there is the mood in Cuba for a violent revolution. If the government can take the pressure off, unrest might dissipate. Some of that pressure will be released with immediate access to more food, medicines. Tourism will help and for that, the Cuban vaccines will have to work. Remittances would help too. What happens to the people rounded up in last week's protest could have a part to play in what happens in the near future too.

Very good article there, worth reading, good insights, thanks for the link !

Agree with your assesment, but don't see the Covid situation in Cuba get better anytime soon.

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Good interview where with Tania Bruguera. She has been under house arrest in Cuba for 8 months after taking part in the "San Isidro Movement" protests last November. Calling out failed policy rather than the embargo but also warning against foreign military intervention. 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/21/cuba-protests-tania-bruguera-500421

 

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On 7/18/2021 at 11:28 PM, Ryan said:

Governments also, importantly, control communications. There was a time when armed revolutions would start (after getting some weapons) by taking ports, train stations, telegraph offices and General post offices. Later they started with radio stations and airports. Now, whoever controls internet access in a country, controls access to information.

 

On 7/19/2021 at 1:57 AM, Jimmy_jack said:

All that internet goes through cables or dishes and is run by servers. Very simple for those in charge to kill data ports and connections. Same way other regimes run off Twitter but leave other connections on. Key strokes.

 

On 7/19/2021 at 9:57 AM, ATGroom said:

Looking at this map, the only internet cables to Cuba are one from Venezuela that lands in Sibony, and another from Jamaica that lands in Santiago. (aside from the two that land in Guantanamo Bay)

If instead of blocking certain sites, they decide to disconnect your area entirely, or even cut off the whole island, they can do that and a VPN won't help you.

 

On 7/19/2021 at 4:45 PM, Jimmy_jack said:

Just to address a couple things. Without US govt permission, nothing from SpaceX or Elon will be on that island. Not through traditional means anyway, it would be illegal. So that is out. 

 

All very complicated stuff - but i came across this article that would make it simpler to get Internet to Cuba if the ash hits the fan next time.

All would depend on the US doing it ...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41639/the-u-s-weighs-deploying-balloons-to-provide-internet-access-to-cuba-during-crackdown

U.S. Weighs Deploying Balloons To Provide Internet Access To Cubans During Crackdown

The Cuban government is making it hard for citizens to communicate with the outside world, limiting internet access and possibly jamming radio bands.

By Brett Tingley July 22, 2021
Internet Balloons Over Cuba

In the aftermath of the Cuban government's response to protests throughout the country, the United States government is weighing what options it has for restoring communication services on the island nation. Internet service is currently suspended throughout Cuba, and some ham radio frequencies are even being jammed in Florida, preventing even rudimentary communications with the island.

In an attempt to remedy the situation and reestablish communication networks in the one-party socialist republic, some officials in the United States government have proposed launching sophisticated high-altitude balloons made by Raven Aerostar over Cuba to provide wireless internet access from above. While the plan sounds good on paper, there are some doubts about how well it could work.message-editor%2F1626903429116-ravenaero
Raven Aerostar via YouTube

Concept art from a Raven Aerostar promotional video demonstrating how only a few balloons can establish a wide-area communications network.

 
 

The protests in Cuba began earlier this month in response to widespread shortages of food and other vital resources like medical treatment. According to some observers, many protestors feel the Cuban government has been investing too heavily in tourism while overtaxing the general population and catering to foreign investment rather than shoring up the national economy.

Cuba hasn't seen widespread public protests in over 60 years, except for the occasional state-organized protest, as defiance of this nature is illegal in Cuba. Some protestors are now facing up to 20 years in prison for their participation. The Cuban government, meanwhile, has blamed the protests on American-sponsored counterrevolutionaries.

 
message-editor%2F1626974230023-cubainter
AP/Eliana Aponte

Protesters in Havana on July 11, 2021

Images of protesters being beaten or detained by police painted a grisly picture of the Cuban government's response to the protests, but definitive information about what is happening in Cuba can be difficult to come by due to the fact that communication with the island is so limited. The Cuban government has even been accused of sharing fake news immediately after reports of the protests began to spread.

According to a 2017 white paper published by the non-profit Freedom House, Cuba has "the most repressive media environment" and "the most restrictive laws on freedom of expression and the press" in the Americas. Freedom House notes that while there are a growing number of independent news outlets on the island, the Cuban government heavily restricts the information coming into and out of the country:

 

Government publications come out irregularly, and their reports often lack details considered to be “sensitive.” Journalists must receive authorization from the relevant government department to gain access to press conferences and other information; independent reporters are typically denied this access.

The Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) censors official media through its Ideology Department, formerly known as the Department of Revolutionary Orientation. Editors and reporters are responsible for adhering to the department’s “thematic plan,” which details which topics to cover and how to cover them. Some independent journalists who favor the government stay within the guidelines, while some critics try to dance around them and others disregard them and risk the consequences.

 

Internet service, meanwhile, is reportedly expensive and relatively new in Cuba, at least among the broader public. While the Associated Press claims that more than half of Cubans today have internet access, the Cuban government owns the domestic telecom service and heavily restricts and censors what Cuban people can access. 

 
message-editor%2F1626985003338-cubanprot
AP/Ramon Espinosa

A protestor being detained in Havana on July 11, 2021.

In response to the Cuban government restricting internet access in the wake of the protests, some members of the U.S. government are considering using high-altitude balloons in order to provide Cuban residents with some form of internet service. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida recently called on President Joe Biden to "immediately authorize and allocate funding to provide emergency connectivity to the internet for Cuba through balloon-supplied internet coverage."

 

According to Politico, FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr stated that high-altitude balloons made by Raven Aerostar are a “proven technology” that could be deployed just 20 miles north of Cuba in international waters, 70 miles south of Key West. Carr mentioned two other cases in which Raven balloons have been used to operationally provide internet service, one in remote areas of Kenya, and another in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria in 2017. 

 
message-editor%2F1626902009519-fccchairc
AP/Wilfredo Lee

Brendan Carr, center, commissioner of the Federal Communications Commission, speaks during a news conference at the offices of Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, left, and Marcell Felipe, right, founder of the Inspire America Foundation.

Raven previously worked with Google’s parent company Alphabet on the Loon project, manufacturing the balloons used in Loon’s tests of technologies to provide high-speed internet to rural or diaster-stricken areas. That effort shut down in January, but Raven Aerostar is still making the high-tech balloons for a number of different applications. Earlier this year, Raven's balloons appeared off both U.S. coasts, sometimes hovering in the same general area, even against the prevailing winds, for extended periods of time by varying their altitude in order to leverage variations in wind patterns. According to some estimates, the balloons are able to stay on station for up to 30 days. 

The Department of Defense has been a major partner in some of Raven Aerostar's endeavors. Naval Sea Systems Command awarded the balloon manufacturers a five-year contract in 2020 to develop unmanned systems, and Raven engineers were previously awarded by the Naval Air Warfare Center for their work in high-altitude surveillance platforms in Afghanistan. U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) sponsored the development of similar Raven Aerostar platforms for use in anti-narcotics operations and disaster relief which were tested over the American midwest. 

 
message-editor%2F1626903379613-raventhun
Raven Aerostar

A Raven Thunderhead balloon.

In addition to serving as communication nodes as has been suggested in Cuba, the balloons can also carry a wide variety of advanced radar sensors, electronic intelligence systems, electronic warfare packages, optical payloads, and much more. Multiple Raven balloons can set up advanced networking capabilities among themselves, and can stay at high altitudes out of the range of many anti-air systems. While some of these capabilities can be offered by satellites, balloon launches are exponentially cheaper and can be performed much more rapidly. They also have far better persistence than many satellites, especially those in low earth orbit. You can read all about these revolutionary balloon systems and their applications in this prior feature of ours

 

This current case in Cuba is different than previous deployments of Raven balloons to provide internet services, however, as it would be in direct response to a foreign government’s actions against its own people. “The first move that brutal dictators make around the world is to shut down the internet to block messaging apps, because the thing that communist dictators like least is the bright light of international attention, the world's eyes, seeing what is going on inside their regime,” FCC commissioner Carr said at a press conference with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and U.S. Representatives María Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez. Salazar added that “We're not talking about Netflix-quality video; we're talking about just the ability to lift the videos that show how they're being beaten on the streets.”

 

Meanwhile, an unnamed Biden administration official told The Washington Post that the White House “will be actively collaborating with the private sector to identify creative ways to ensure that the Cuban people have access to the free flow of information on the Internet,” but did not elaborate further. Telecom experts told the outlet that providing a network without a license to operate in Cuba would be in violation of international law. 

Despite the fact that the FCC commissioner feels the idea of sending balloons to reestablish some form of internet services in Cuba is sound, some have cast doubts on the efficacy of such a plan. One Internet services consultant told the Washington Post that the idea was a "Hollywood scenario." Speaking to the Associated Press, satellite communications consultant Tim Farrar says such a network of balloons would be insufficient to provide the entire island nation with internet coverage. In addition, any wireless internet service the balloons provide would need a sufficiently large unused section of the radio frequency spectrum, and would ultimately be prone to jamming efforts by the Cuban government. 

There have already been reports that the Cuban government is actively jamming ham radio frequencies used to communicate with operators in Florida. Amateur radio operator and Cuban exile Alex Valladares posted a video to YouTube demonstrating what he claims is "malicious interference" on a wide band of radio frequencies. 

 

In addition, several amateur radio operators told IEEE Spectrum that they believe a "coordinated jamming effort" is underway. Meanwhile, the American Radio Relay League, which calls itself the "national association for Amateur Radio," said that "there’s no proven connection between the jamming and the protests, as evidence has been circumstantial." Nevertheless, The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) gave a statement to Motherboard stating it is “assessing these reports in conjunction with our field agents and communicating with the Department of State as this issue develops.” Cuba reportedly has a long history with jamming radio frequencies in Florida. If these reports are true, it would seem the Cuban government is attempting to restrict even the most basic forms of communication from the island.

 
message-editor%2F1626974354392-cubaprote
 

.

AP/Eliana Aponte

Special forces police parked outside of the National Capitol building in Havana, Cuba, Wednesday, July 14, 2021.

While the debate over whether the United States will send Raven Aerostar balloons near the island nation is still ongoing, these balloons could end up being the right technology available at the right time to provide a way around information suppression by dictatorships during a major crackdown or crisis. If they are put to use over Cuba, at the very least it could serve as a test as to their utility and it could offer a better understanding as to how to employ them under similar circumstances in the future. 

Contact the author: [email protected]

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