Popular Post El Presidente Posted August 12, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted August 12, 2021 From Havana “‘Factory production has been cut to around 50%. The factories are open but production units are disrupted through covid infestation and workers needing to stay at home to look after children and sick family members. Exports have been impacted through lack of cargo flight options. Little if anything has left in the last month. Good news is that this years tobacco crop yielded good quantity and quality. It was a little bit of a surprise. Sorting houses are processing the leaves. Lack of oil is ceasing transport all over the country. Black market booming and prices skyrocketing” 10 Day Supply Outlook Tight. Some premium stock through next week including DC 50 cabs/VI etc. Quantities are super thin across the board barring a few lines. Incoming stock numbers are down 40% on what they were only six weeks ago. Global retailers/distributors are all in the same boat and seeking some guidance/clarification from HSA as to the supply situation between now and Christmas. Looking at the Havana report, there doesn’t appear to be any chance of stock reinforcements anytime soon. HSA appears to have used up whatever reserves they had and we are now relying on current production. Summary I suspect it is going to get worse before it gets better. Assuming Cuba can get on top of Covid it could take 18 months to get back to the stock supply levels of 2020 and first quarter of 2021. For us it is a matter of play the ball that is in front of us and use this time to find the gold in the challenge posed. In order to maintain/ration stock control, carts will remain closed for the next 10 days and we will reassess again then. Using 2424 allows us to manage our warehouse pool to the stick while keeping an eye on re-supply trendlines. Hang in there and thank you for your help and understanding 8 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cairo Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Really appreciate your "straight shooting" with us... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyneversleeps Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Thanks for the update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhinoww Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Your transparency is very much appreciated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Chas.Alpha Posted August 12, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted August 12, 2021 Rob, just give Dee a raise and end this now!😅 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordAnubis Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 JLP and Guants must be stockpiled to the brim. Never in doubt of running out, ever. Put your marketing hat on and sell it to us. I await the video review with Ken 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westg Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Hold Fast RA. Love the attitude and vision. 😎🌴❤️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Chibearsv Posted August 13, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted August 13, 2021 Not good news. I wish the best for you and your family more than my personal inventory. Hang in there brother. Hopefully the tunnel isn’t too long. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 6 hours ago, therealrsr said: Does the cargo flight reference imply a stockpile in HSA warehouses? Just looking for a silver lining I guess. Unfortunately not. Under 3 million sticks at last report and little of that was premium. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey D Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Appreciate the update Rob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamrandr Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 2 hours ago, El Presidente said: Unfortunately not. Under 3 million sticks at last report and little of that was premium. Is there any sense of when they will be able to get back to decent production? Is the main issue lack of workers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, teamrandr said: Is there any sense of when they will be able to get back to decent production? Is the main issue lack of workers? When they get Covid under control and get back to a full or near full factory numbers consistently. Best estimate: November/December? In terms of making a dint in global supply, you wouldn't expect things to improve until May/June next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meesterjojo Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Well, on the flip side I've got about 20 boxes of D4s just sitting around. Give me something to work through during the dry spells. I hope the best for yall at FOH, though. I know tough times can be scary. Sorry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kalibratecuba Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 I'm glad @Raskol didn't convince me to sell anything from my stock. 😜 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raskol Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 I'm glad [mention=29867]Raskol[/mention] didn't convince me to sell anything from my stock. Time to buy... Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bolismoker Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Thanks for the updateSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCgarman Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 21 hours ago, El Presidente said: When they get Covid under control and get back to a full or near full factory numbers consistently. Best estimate: November/December? In terms of making a dint in global supply, you wouldn't expect things to improve until May/June next year Wow, almost a year to get up and running to some semblance of normal. That is a long ways off. Does this mean the factories in Havana will have leaf to roll with more significant age on it? On 8/13/2021 at 9:24 AM, LordAnubis said: JLP and Guants must be stockpiled to the brim. Never in doubt of running out, ever. Put your marketing hat on and sell it to us. I await the video review with Ken Glad I like the petit corona size sticks, not much else available. So buying up a few boxes of Marevas. When the Marevas dry up, look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 1 hour ago, NYgarman said: Wow, almost a year to get up and running to some semblance of normal. That is a long ways off. Does this mean the factories in Havana will have leaf to roll with more significant age on it? Not really. 18 months is fairly negligible in the world of tobacco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99call Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 On 8/12/2021 at 11:22 PM, El Presidente said: including DC 50 Many thanks for the Update, is this Hoyo, or Punch? Cheers, Stefan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerPimp Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Thanks for being so transparent. I always assumed that on the 24:24 the more cigars that show up with very young dates the tighter the supply is getting. It will be interesting to see how the next 1-2 years goes in the CC world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troels Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 All that massive hoarding over the years makes sense for once 🤗 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cairo Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 46 minutes ago, 99call said: Punch? The Punch DC 50 cigar cab was discontinued in 2017--Ref: https://www.cubancigarwebsite.com/brand/punch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangBang Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Our "hoarding" turns out to be "careful planning" lol. Yep imagine the DCs will be either Hoyo DCs or Lusi's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99call Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, Cairo said: The Punch DC 50 cigar cab was discontinued in 2017--Ref: https://www.cubancigarwebsite.com/brand/punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCgarman Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Troels said: All that massive hoarding over the years makes sense for once 🤗 Certainly doesn't hurt to have a nice inventory built up over the years. Slim pickin's ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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