Cigar drought in Spain.

[El Presidente]

Heard this now from two sources returning this week from Spain. One southern Spain and the other Galicia way. 

In terms of Cuban cigars, there are mostly tumbleweeds blowing through the cabinets. 

No Cohiba to be seen. No Regionals. Limited anything else.  They have never seen it like this before. 

More and more NC being sold. Understandable. 

This is going to take some time to fix. 

 

[Kaptain Karl]

It'll be interesting to see how much market share is permanently lost to NC's. 

I was speaking with a good friend of mine and a cigar enthusiast. For him, the perfect draw and construction are the most important part of his cigar enjoyment. And he smokes basically nothing but Davidoff and Arturo Fuente. I wonder how many others outside of the states are like that and wont come back into CC's? 

[El Presidente]

3 hours ago, Kaptain Karl said:

I was speaking with a good friend of mine and a cigar enthusiast. For him, the perfect draw and construction are the most important part of his cigar enjoyment. And he smokes basically nothing but Davidoff and Arturo Fuente. I wonder how many others outside of the states are like that and wont come back into CC's? 

Among manufacturers it is regarded as gospel that American consumers value consistency (draw/construction) over anything else. In Habanos dominated premium markets it has always been that flavour complexity, balance and richness is most valued. 

it would be fair to say that neither market has experienced much of the the other side 

[Nevrknow]

Draw has never bothered me. Lucky I guess? But then I have a cigar "tool kit". I see tinkering to get a cigar to draw well equivalent to tuning one of my engines. While I love it when they purr like a kitten, getting my hands dirty, so to speak, has a calming effect on me as well.

[rcarlson]

1 hour ago, loose_axle said:

Agreed. Flavour is all for me. The rest can be managed one way or another. To be honest though I prob only have one or two a box that need fixing. Don't know whether I'm lucky or its just storing at a good temp and humidity curbing the problem... 

That'd be luck, unless you only have two boxes.  

[Cigar Surgeon]

Yup, I mentioned in the other thread that my inlaws were in Paris for 10 days and I asked if they'd grab me some QdOs. Not only were there no QdOs, there were no boxes available of anything. Very sad.

[BrightonCorgi]

I take it the same in Andorra?

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, BrightonCorgi said:

I take it the same in Andorra?

not sure right now but should have an update from Andorra in the next week. 

[Cigarsmoker81]

3 hours ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

Yup, I mentioned in the other thread that my inlaws were in Paris for 10 days and I asked if they'd grab me some QdOs. Not only were there no QdOs, there were no boxes available of anything. Very sad.

 

I’m currently in Paris and they almost have nothing Cuban ! Some partagas/ryj/monte/Ramon allones and few Trinidad in some of the shops but that’s it. Most of the shelves that le civette  used to stock Cubans is now nc! 

they told me they’ve received the qdo regional but few boxes and sold out quickly. They’re not expecting any shipments soon 

[Ryan]

I was in about eight cigar shops last week in southern Spain. Malaga, Seville, Jerez and Cadiz. I had conversations with most of the owners. Very few boxes in Spain currently. No Cohiba coming in. Very few Romeo Churchills, Short Churchills or Wide Churchills. Some Trinidad coming in, Media Luna, Esmeraldas, Topes. Some of the retailers I spoke to were at the Partagas Legado launch in Madrid but they have no word on general release of those. Also no news on the new Regional for Spain, the Diplomaticos.

Regarding any "finds", I saw one box of Hoyo Primaveras and one box of Quai d'Orsay Senadores. 

Shops that reliably had Reserva, Regionals, Limited etc. in the past had nothing. Nothing with any age either. All the shops are doing more non-Cuban. Davidoff, Vega Fina, which had been growing anyway over the last 10 years. But now more Oliva, Fuente etc. too. One retailer in Seville has regular cigar/drinks events. In the past these were usually with Cuban cigars. His last one was with a Macanudo, his upcoming one is with Oliva Lanceros.

While they all know that Cuba is having problems, most of them believe the stock is going to China and blame it on the new Asian ownership of Altadis/Habanos, though that handover hasn't really happened yet. Having said that, they know that supply issues are global, not just in Spain. 

I didn't take pictures in the shops as I was with the owners usually and didn't want to seem prying. Here is a picture of the cigar humidor in Malaga airport on Sunday night.

While there was never a great supply there, there was always some Cohiba and a few other brands, Partagas, Romeo, Montecristo etc. Sometimes regionals. Those shelves used to be fairly full.

Now the only Cubans were some packs of tubed Edmundos. Then Davidoff, Balmoral and Vegafina. Some ICT Montecristo and Partagas minis outside the humidor on shelves in the foreground.

I'll be in Barcelona and Roses next week visiting a few shops when I can. I can't make it over to Andorra, about 3 hours each way. The wife would strangle me.

  

[Troels]

Yet we have seen altidis selling through pcc for a while🙃 

Been shopping in Berlin and Hamburg this autumn, and when it comes to cohiba, trinidad and larger formats in general it was the same situation - hope they’re piling up in Havana, just about to flood the markets 🤗

Found half box of RA Sir Henry and some hdm dc - other than that mostly smaller formats

[djrey]

1 hour ago, Troels said:

hope they’re piling up in Havana, just about to flood the markets

Can only hope so. My purchasing is currently paused until some sensible pricing returns. Production has been ramping back up so it has to start flowing in soon. 

[SCgarman]

35 minutes ago, djrey said:

Can only hope so. My purchasing is currently paused until some sensible pricing returns. Production has been ramping back up so it has to start flowing in soon. 

Sensible pricing is likely done. Those willing to pay $280usd for a box of RASS, PSD4, BRC etc will likely never see $200/box again. In fact 280 will likely rise to $300 soon. 

[djrey]

14 minutes ago, NYgarman said:

Sensible pricing is likely done. Those willing to pay $280usd for a box of RASS, PSD4, BRC etc will likely never see $200/box again. In fact 280 will likely rise to $300 soon. 

One can only hope that eventually people will just say no to these prices and inventory will start stacking up unsold. I still feel like it will work it self out eventually. If you price out half your market, inventory will sit. I doubt all cigar smokers are capable of dishing out $300+ a box. 

Currently with limited inventory only a select few (those willing to pay the inflated prices) are purchasing while the majority sit back. Once production is back online and supplies return, prices will need to lower to bring back the lost market. Especially if NC cigars are starting to compete, which can be had for much less money. 

[El Presidente]

If you stack the facts. 

the bad

• There is little to no premium stock with retailers 
• There is little to no premium stock with distributors
• There is little to no premium stock with Habanos in Havana (there is no magical stockpile. It disappeared over the last 18 months). 
• There are serious cashflow issues for the appropriation of packaging and general factory repairs/requirements. 
• There are ongoing challenges to global supply chains. Transport is tough and pricey. 
• Cigar prices in Cuba have increased significantly. 

the good

• Factories are back to 100% staffing. 
• From November 15, freight options will improve. 
• There is plenty of tobacco

overview. 

• It will take until 2023/24 to restock distributors to the level before the pandemic assuming 100% production is maintained and no further disruptions. 
• there will be two more price increases during that time. 5% May 22 and 5% May 23  
• They may indeed lose 30% of their existing market.  They will back themselves that they can replace it with emerging markets or that existing consumers who drifted will return to a superior product. 
• There will be a streamlining/amalgamation of major global retailers. 
• The "glory days" for Cuban cigar lovers will be referred to as pre 2019

[Silverstix]

2 hours ago, NYgarman said:

Sensible pricing is likely done. Those willing to pay $280usd for a box of RASS, PSD4, BRC etc will likely never see $200/box again. In fact 280 will likely rise to $300 soon. 

absolutely.  if the market will bear it, that's where the price will stay.  seems like things are flying off the shelves even more at these crazy prices due to FOMO and the limited supply

[oneizzzz]

7 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

 

• The "glory days" for Cuban cigar lovers will be referred to as pre 2019

What defines those "glory days" for you?

[El Presidente]

Just now, oneizzzz said:

What defines those "glory days" for you?

price and availability

[Hammer Smokin']

wonderful.

music to the cigar flippers ears. 

[El Presidente]

The risk to the Habanos brand currently is not so much from consumers but from B&M retailers. 

They are rightfully angry. 

It is unlikely that they will abandon NC once CC supply comes back online.  They have learnt a lesson. 

[oneizzzz]

 

16 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

 

• There is plenty of tobacco

You think they'll keep producing smaller brands/vitolas?  Or streamline most of that tobacco into popular sizes and brands in order to boost sales on the heels of cashflow stasis?

 

[El Presidente]

Just now, oneizzzz said:

 

You think they'll keep producing smaller brands/vitolas?  Or streamline most of that tobacco into popular sizes and brands in order to boost sales on the heels of cashflow stasis?

 

what would you do in their position?

[MrBirdman]

Look don’t want to go back down this rabbit hole but there are really two different sets of price increases - premium and non premium. The latter isn’t especially outrageous and probably brings those Habanos more into line with the pricing seen in NCs. The price hikes in Cohiba have been laughable though. If the market can sustain $50 Siglo V’s after stock returns to normal, then retailers were doing something seriously wrong before COVID. Competition should relax those prices, unless HSA just cuts production to keep supply as tight as it is now, which wouldn’t make much sense. 

[oneizzzz]

Just now, El Presidente said:

what would you do in their position?

Lol, well the latter sounds smarter from an economic perspective.  Connoisseur choices and rare premium sticks would command a premium price, but would be a drop in the bucket in terms of global profit.  Channel all that tobacco into consistent, high quality big hitters for each brand.  Rebuild.

 

[El Presidente]

12 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

The price hikes in Cohiba have been laughable though. 

We haven't been laughing 

21%  in the last 3 years 

21% on regular lines

28% on Esplendido/VI/V/Lancero  and a few others that I can't recall.