Cigar drought in Spain.

[MrBirdman]

5 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

We haven't been laughing 

Neither have I, trust me. 

Looking forward to the Nudies!

[SCgarman]

22 hours ago, Kaptain Karl said:

It'll be interesting to see how much market share is permanently lost to NC's. 

I was speaking with a good friend of mine and a cigar enthusiast. For him, the perfect draw and construction are the most important part of his cigar enjoyment. And he smokes basically nothing but Davidoff and Arturo Fuente. I wonder how many others outside of the states are like that and wont come back into CC's? 

I quite enjoy the Padron 1926 and 1964 series, but prices have also shot sky high. They were never cheap to begin with, but box prices are getting up there.

[Tstew75]

This thread is yet another reminder to be buying as many boxes of CCs as you can afford while things are still sane (yes, todays prices are reasonable, save special Hiba/Trini stuff).

We'll revisit this topic in 2-3 years & see who listened.

[SCgarman]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The risk to the Habanos brand currently is not so much from consumers but from B&M retailers. 

They are rightfully angry. 

It is unlikely that they will abandon NC once CC supply comes back online.  They have learnt a lesson. 

Wouldn't this mean good things for all the online vendors? Such as plenty of stock and discounts coming back? Or no.

[El Presidente]

Just now, NYgarman said:

Wouldn't this mean good things for all the online vendors? Such as plenty of stock and discounts coming back? Or no.

"plenty of stock" ....at best 2023/24

I can't see broad level discounting before then. Keep in mind there will be approx 10% HSA price increases in the interim. 

[SCgarman]

2 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

"plenty of stock" ....at best 2023/24

I can't see broad level discounting before then. Keep in mind there will be approx 10% HSA price increases in the interim. 

A lot can happen to the world economy in 2-3 years. As for Cuba and it's economic situation? Nobody has a crystal ball. 

[Kaptain Karl]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

"plenty of stock" ....at best 2023/24

I can't see broad level discounting before then. Keep in mind there will be approx 10% HSA price increases in the interim. 

Is cigar production way down as well or are there going to be stockpiled boxes of '21 cigars hitting the market in '23/24?

[El Presidente]

55 minutes ago, Kaptain Karl said:

Is cigar production way down as well or are there going to be stockpiled boxes of '21 cigars hitting the market in '23/24?

Most factories only started production again with anything coming close to capacity 3 weeks ago. 

They have done near nothing since April. 

[El Presidente]

16 hours ago, loose_axle said:

Out of curiosity would/ have you guys considered stocking non cubans (apart from the desnudos)? I certainly do smoke them... there's a lot of NC's I'd rather smoke than say a Quintero Favorito and a few others in the CC line. My main issue is I generally prefer the milder cigars and most NC's kick like a mule. 

Premium NC stocks have also taken a hit particularly from Nicaragua. Shortage of rollers and managerial personnel not being onsite during covid has led to issues. 

I am more than happy to sell NC's via directly or through a collaboration. 

[Dwamon]

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[El Presidente]

13 minutes ago, Dwaming said:

Consensus was the same in all the shops on two points: had I been there in June/July, it would have been a gold mine, and since that time the biggest purchaser of cigars has travelers from China.

After a long conversation in one store, I learned that another store inXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXX in particular, has a deal with middlemen that come over, purposely pay 20% over retail cost to bring back to China. 10% going to the B&M, the other 10% going to the middleman, and in result we are seeing less and less cigars for rest of the us as they buy in bulk.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

2 things. 

 

1. Chinese haven't been in spain for 12 months. 

2. Don't ever post the name of a store "purportedly" doing illegal transactions.  

first and last warning. 

[JohnnyO]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

2 things. 

 

1. Chinese haven't been in spain for 12 months. 

2. Don't ever post the name of a store "purportedly" doing illegal transactions.  

first and last warning. 

The Chinese/Asian players have been at this for about 20 years. Stripping the world cup boards bare, offering bounties for master cases of high end cigars. My last 4 trips to Havana in 2020 it was 90% Asian in the LCDH's, none of them smoking. It's not rocket science. John 

[El Presidente]

11 minutes ago, JohnnyO said:

The Chinese/Asian players have been at this for about 20 years. Stripping the world cup boards bare, offering bounties for master cases of high end cigars. My last 4 trips to Havana in 2020 it was 90% Asian in the LCDH's, none of them smoking. It's not rocket science. John 

It is important however to differentiate that they are not responsible for the stock shortages now.  The shortages  are a result of circumstance and incompetence. 

Furthermore, how many global retailers have been offering  "bounties for master cases of high end cigars"?  How many times have members walked into a Havana divan to see a mastercase of super premium with a retailers name on them?

Call a spade a spade.  Asian buyers are a major influence on the Cuban cigar landscape. However they are only part of the issue when it comes to shortages. 

 

Back to todays Friday Funny

 

 

 

 

[JohnnyO]

CA says China is the #1 consumer of Habanos SA cigars. Thats whats going through the front door. Cuba says they've had a 4% drop in global sales in the past year, 2% drop in Cuba but the shelves are empty. So where is the leaf, in the fields rotting? John

[El Presidente]

That data (for what its worth) is 16 months old. 

Plenty of tobacco

Reduced production since June 2020 which reduced to a fraction from February 2021. 

Worldwide demand up 30%. Mother hubbards cupboard was stripped bare. 

They ran out.

[JohnnyO]

38 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

That data (for what its worth) is 16 months old. 

Plenty of tobacco

Reduced production since June 2020 which reduced to a fraction from February 2021. 

Worldwide demand up 30%. Mother hubbards cupboard was stripped bare. 

They ran out.

The CA article is May 4, 2021 referring to 2020 stats, so not sure where you get 16 months. I remember in another thread you said there is no stockpile, now you say there is plenty. Are you referring to boxed cigars ready to ship or pacas sitting in warehouses? John 

[El Presidente]

28 minutes ago, JohnnyO said:

The CA article is May 4, 2021 referring to 2020 stats, so not sure where you get 16 months. I remember in another thread you said there is no stockpile, now you say there is plenty. Are you referring to boxed cigars ready to ship or pacas sitting in warehouses? John 

John you have to take stats from HSA for what they are. Garbage. 

China becomes number 1. Quite possibly.  Keep in mind HSA previous number 1 (Spain) was shut down  from March 2020.  Much of the major markets in Europe were. Prior,  China was number 5 from memory.  In reality, they were likely always number 2 behind the USA.

There is plenty of tobacco in warehouses. 

There are almost no premium boxed cigar reserves in the HSA warehouse. 

If everything goes smoothly, it will take them a year to fill the global hole. It will take them another year to rebuild some stockpiles. 

So two years at best to get on top of it. Based on their track record, you would double that.